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Phillies Stat Notes -- May 14, 2012

Items after the jump:
- Phils batters vs. projections
- Extrapolating the first 35 games
- Ex-Phillies traded to Houston: where are they now?
- Phillies stats vs. early 2011 and vs. the Astros
- NL Standings and team stats
- Upcoming milestones

Phillies' Hitters vs. Projections

The average is now only 1% below the lowest projections.


Extrapolating the first 35

Another kind of projections, extrapolating the first 35 games to the full season (including the same playing time). Always good for a laugh, and to point out the folly of assuming a season will look overall like any of its 35-game parts.

Position players
Rollins: .....28 RBI, 32 steals; would be his 10th season of 30+ steals
Polanco: ...28 RBI, 19 walks
Pence: ......32 HR, 106 RBI, 93 runs, 42 BB, 139 K
Mayberry: ..393 PAs, 5 HR, 28 RBI, 14 BB, 102 K
Victorino: ...51 SB, 5 CS
Ruiz: .........28 HR, 102 RBI, 49 K
Galvis: ......514 PAs, 42 doubles
Pierre: .......472 PAs, 5 doubles, 5 triples, 0 HRs, 143 singles

Halladay ...12-12, 3.20 ERA, 190 Ks
Lee .............0-8, 2.17 ERA, 180 Ks
Hamels ......23-5, 2.28 ERA, 224 Ks
Blanton .....16-11, 3.07 ERA, 149 Ks
Worley ........9-9, 3.07 ERA, 206 Ks

ex-Phillies Prospects traded to Houston

Pence Trade
Jonathan Singleton, 1B/OF, AA Corpus Christi, 20
.291/.405/.509, 154 wRC+, 21 BB and 27 Ks; 6th in OBP, 10th in OPS, and 9th in wRC+, despite being one of only 3 position players in the league under 21. While spending most of his time at 1B, he's also played 8 games in Left, so that possibility is still viable.

Jarred Cosart, RHP, AAA Oklahoma City, 22
After 4 starts and a 2.84 ERA/3.52 FIP in AA, Cosart was recently promoted to Oklahoma City briefly for a spot start before rejoining Corpus Christi yesterday. He has a combined 7.8 K/9, but 4.9 BB/9.

Domingo Santana, OF, A+ Lancaster, 19
.229/.302/.438, 102 wRC+; holding his own as one of only two 19-year olds in the California League; his K rate is still high (33.0%), but he is also drawing some walks (9.4%).

Josh Zeid, RHP, AA Corpus Christi, 25
Off to a good start, with 13 Ks and only 2 walks in 11.1 innings of relief.

Oswalt Trade
J.A. Happ, LHP, Astros, 29
After a 6-15 record and 5.35 ERA last year (4.69 FIP), he's doing about the same so far in 2012: 2-3, 5.72 ERA, 4.99 FIP

Jonathan Villar, SS, AA Corpus Christi, 21
.224/.276/.288, 12/15 stealing, 24.2% K rate, 6.1% BB, 62 wRC+

Anthony Gose, OF, AAA Las Vegas (Toronto), 21
(Houston immediately flipped Gose to the Blue Jays for Brett Wallace, who's struggling in AAA)
.252/.329/.271, 14/17 stealing, 24.4% K rate, 9.9% BB, 94 wRC+

Lidge Trade
Michael Bourn is making quite the nice career for himself as one of the best outfielders in baseball.
Geoff Geary has retired after pitching with the York Revolution of the independent Atlantic League last year.
Mike Constanzo, the Phillies' first pick in the 2005 draft (2nd round) made his MLB debut yesterday with the Reds.

Phillies Team Stats vs. early 2011 and vs. Astros

First 16 games: 2.7 runs per game, 15th in the NL
Last 19 games: 4.7 runs per game, 4th in the NL

Low scoring games
Depends on what one considers "low-scoring". They've scored two or less more often than in early 2011, but 3 or less LESS often.

2 runs or less: 43% this year (35% in the first 46 games last year)
3 runs or less: 51% this year (59% in the fifrst 46 last year)

The Walk rate has now climbed over 6%, although it still ranks last. It's not clear what this team was thinking in the first two or three weeks, but the rate was only 5.0% through April 27th. It's been 7.4% since then, which is still a good bit below the league average of 8.4%.

Houston is only 15-19, but they actually have a positive run differential so far.



NL Standings and Team Stats


Upcoming Milestones

Jimmy Rollins
- On Saturday he passed Tony Taylor to move into 4th place for games played with the Phillies. He's now at 1,671, behind only Mike Schmidt (2,404), Richie Ashburn (1,794), and Larry Bowa (1,739). He needs 158 this season to reach Ashburn, and while he's appeared in every game so far, that will (hopefully) not continue and he'll become #2 early next year. Schmidt is out of reach.
- His single on Saturday gave him 3,000 total bases for his career, and the Home Run yesterday made it 3,004. As the 4th player in history to get that many with the Phillies, he joins Schmidt (4,404), Ed Delahanty (3,230), and Del Ennis (3,029). Schmidt is out of reach, again, but he should get to #2 early next year. He's the 31st active player to reach that 3,000 total bases.
- With 2 more singles (28 total), he will tie 19th century outfielder Roy Thomas for 4th on the Phillies' list at 1,236, behind Ashburn (1,811), Delahanty (1,525), and Bowa (1,498). He won't pass Ashburn, but he does have a good shot to get to 2nd on the list before his current contract ends.

Placido Polanco
- Polanco's next hit (his 34th this year), will be the 2,000th of his career. He will become the 23rd active player to reach 2,000.