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Phillies Stat Notes -- Low Bars, Mets Preview

Items after the jump:
- Mets preview
- Phillies stats vs. early 2011 and vs. the Mets
- NL Standings and team stats
- Upcoming milestones

New York Mets Preview

- The Mets are in third place in the NL East, 3 games behind the Nationals with a 15-13 record. This despite having the second worst run differential in the league, ahead of only the Pirates.
- Their runs scored per game of 3.79 is 11th, a fraction behind the Phillies (also 3.79). They have the 3rd highest BA and OBP in the NL, but are dead last in Isolated Power.
- Patience is their virtue: 1st in taking the first pitch, 1st in pitches per PA, and 5th in BB%.
- They are at the other extreme in base stealing -- last in both steals and SB%.
- Their run prevention is near the bottom, although they are racking up the 5th highest K-rate in the league

Phillies vs. scheduled starters - OPS (PAs)...
- Jonathon Niese: Mayberry 1.000 (17), Pence .343 (15), Polanco 1.045 (26), Rollins .596 (21), Ruiz .714 (14), Victorino .760 (19)
- Miguel Batista: Pierre .573 (26), Polanco .813 (36), Rollins 1.575 (24), Schneider .620 (15), Wiggington. 692 (15)
- Dillon Gee: no one has more than 9 PAs, but Rollins is 3-3 with a walk. Between Gee and Batista maybe he can get something going.


Phillies Team Stats vs. early 2011 and vs. Mets

- Runs per game of 3.79 is now almost exactly what it was in the first 46 games of 2011. However the profile is somewhat different (see graphs below). They've had more very-low scoring games this year (31% with 0 or 1 runs, compared to 22% last year), but also more with 4-9 runs (45% vs. 33%).
- Virtually all key offensive stats are very close to what they were last year, with the glaring exception of BB%, where the Phillies continue to trail the NL at only 5.6%.
- The Phillies (73.4%) and Mets (73.1%) are far ahead of the rest of the league in the % of their hits that are singles.


Just to state the obvious points about these comparisons to early 2011, before Utley returned and the offense (for that and many other reasons), turned into the highest-scoring one in the NL: this is a VERY low bar that we're comparing to, and being in the same ballpark as that offense is nothing to be proud of. Granted the 2011 team did have Ryan Howard in the early going, but as has been pointed out, the performance of his replacements so far has been a bright spot.


NL Standings and Team Stats

- The NL East continues to have the best record of the three divisions, continuing the 2011 trend.
- Based on their run differential, the Cardinals should be 19-6.


Upcoming Milestones

Jimmy Rollins
- he needs 4 more games played (33 for the year) to tie Tony Taylor for 4th on the Phillies' all-time list with 1,669
- with 7 more singles (28 total), he will tie 19th century outfielder Roy Thomas for 4th on the Phillies' list
- 7 more total bases (36 total) will make him the 4th player in history to get 3,000 with the Phillies

Placido Polanco
- Polanco needs 8 more hits (34 total) to reach 2,000 for his career