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What happens with Roy Halladay now?

Roy Halladay is apparently not injured so badly that his career is over, but he has little value to the Phillies for 2013. What should the Phillies do with him? What should Halladay do?


Roy Halladay's press conference was covered at TheGoodPhight here. In summary, "not the end of the world" is the outcome. Halladay will have his shoulder scoped and patched up. This is not a major tear-down and rebuild. He will pitch again in the majors.

We're all aware that his contract is up at the end of this year. If he misses 3 months and does some rehab starts, maybe he can pitch before the end of the year, but probably not before the non-waiver trade deadline. Until other teams see him pitch, there is likely no chance that anyone will trade for him. Maybe the Phillies will be in contention for a wildcard spot at that point, and will ride him through the end of the year. If not, maybe Halladay tries to pitch some to show the Phillies and other potential suitors what he can do.

Where do the parties go from there?

If Halladay is in good shape and returns to a hypothetical 80% Halladay, he is really valuable to any team in Major League Baseball. Halladay accepted a trade to Philadelphia partly because he wanted to win a World Series. It looks increasingly unlikely that this will happen. Halladay has made millions of dollars. He has already forgone earnings that he could have maximized elsewhere to take a below-market deal to stay with the Phillies to try to win an elusive Word Series title. What makes anyone think he will want to stay in Philadelphia?

Were I Roy Halladay, I would want to go to a team that can win now, meaning in 2014. Detroit. Texas. The Angels. The Angels, in particular, are in need of pitching. Why not take a chance on them over the winter on an incentive-laden deal? Why would he be willing to do the same with the Phillies, who are receding from their status as perennial playoff contenders? What would he gain from this? Probably not a shot at a World Series title. I do not see a motivation that causes him to want to stay here. Based on what we know, money alone is not the key to his heart. If it is winning a title that really motivates him at this stage, I don't see why he would return to Philadelphia in 2014.

The ability of the Phillies to rebuild or retool is going to be complicated by the fact that the quality of their team is no longer going to give them an advantage in attracting talent, either through free agency or through Halladay-type trades where a stud player facing free agency has veto powers. The dealings with Halladay in the next year could be a useful model to see what the future may hold for the team's ability to attract and retain non-draft talent.