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This Month in Prospects - May Wrap-up

Looking at the Prospects throughout the system to see how the month of May went for them and how their season stats are stacking up.



Aaron Altherr - Altherr cooled way off in May. His line is still solid at .297/.330/.473, but only 5 walks, 40 strikeouts (that's about a 40% K rate and 5% walk rate). Also only 1 HR. For the year his numbers stand at .322/.373/.525 with a 29.6 K rate a 7.8% BB rate .203 ISO. The BB rate is very close to his 2012 rate. His BABiP is way beyond unsustainable at .451. The power looks legit ( the HR rate is sustainable, though some of the doubles and triples may sink with BABiP regression. The K rate needs to come down, very, very badly, but there's still plenty to like.

Cody Asche - Cody's month was about what you might expect for his MLB ceiling .279/.322/..495 with 6 doubles, 3 triples and 4 HR with 28 K and 8 BB. For the year he's .266/.318/.427 which is close to what I expect he might do at the Major League level in a year or two.His BABiP is almost exactly his career average BABiP Same for damn near everything else in his line, except the K rate, which is up about 5%.

Kelly Dugan -Dugan's May is essentially his season due to missing most of April with Injuries. He's sporting a .322/.393/.570 line with .248 ISO. He's already halfway to last season's Home Run total after a little over a month. His BABiP is high, but he went all of last season with an even higher BABiP. He's a bit of a line drive/fly ball hitter. Perhaps he can sustain the BABiP, but I doubt he can sustain it this high. I look at him as a closer to .280-ish hitter, but I have thought for a few years that the power would come for him to be a 20-25 HR guy. I think the ISO will and BABiP will both regress, but I also expect that Dugan will be going to Reading sometime this summer. He's closing in on Rule 5 eligibility and the team will likely want to see how he handles that for a month before deciding whether to protect him.

Maikel Franco - Franco has been good enough to vault into the top Position prospect spot on the Phillies depth chart. For May he hit .283/.328/.528 with 9 doubles, a triple and 5 HR. Nicely his line includes 14 K and 7 BB. That's excellent plate discipline for one of the youngest players in the FSL. His season line is very nearly identical at .288/.335/.538 with a .250 ISO, 10 Homers, 13.5% K, 6.1% BB. His HR/OFB is a little high and may trend down, but Franco's FB rate is also much higher so far, so his power should be good even if that regresses. The one red flag is that Franco's BB rate has gone down at every level and that trend is occurring so far this season as well.

Tyson Gillies - Something interesting has started happening with Tyson Gillies. He's suddenly hit 4 home runs in about a week. The Phillies did something odd this Spring, they decided to both retool Gillies' swing and push him to Triple-A after several injury plagued Double-A seasons. Prior to his injuries Gillies was Ben Revere with a little more power, but still usually sported a 60-70% Ground Ball rate. It's too early to say the changes are working, but as awful as Gillies has been so far this season at least it's something to build on.

Larry "Fudgie" Greene - This year has been a disaster so far. Greene showed up out of shape and stayed in Clearwater to get into shape. His line of .178/.322/.220 is about as bad as it could get. Reports are that Greene is being far too passive and letting hittable pitches fly past. His 33.6% K rate and 17.5% BB rate suggest there could be truth to this. Sadly he's a Two True Outcome player so far and has almost no power so far with only 5 XBH (all doubles). Does Greene not have the skills to recognize pitches? Is he too passive as a hitter for other reasons? Is it fixable?

Cesar Hernandez - Hernandez Had a mixed bag of a month. He didn't hit very well, but he drew an unusual # of walks. He ended the month with a promotion to the Majors, his first. He sported a .232/.336/.343 line with 18 K and 16 BB in 117 PA. Cesar typically sports a 4-5% BB rate, so pushing 15% is way out of character.

Williker Isava - Isava is a Shortstop and one of the team's bigger International signings last year. He's in the VSL, where the season is young and in the first few weeks he's got a .278/.278/.333 with 5 K and 0 walks in 20 PA.

Tommy Joseph - Tommy had a bad month. After getting clipped in the head while catching and sustaining a concussion Joseph got shut down. Only 10 PA for the month, so not much to bother talking about aside from get well wishes and hopes he can recover and rebound.

Chace Numata - The young Hawaiian Catcher is doing quite well so far in his first shot at full season ball. In May he had a .277/.358/.386 line with 9 BB, 2 HBP and 12 K. The 3 SB is nice, as he has fairly good speed for a Catcher. There isn't much power at all, but there is good plate discipline. His season numbers are similar. The defense is a bit of a work in progress.

Cameron Perkins - Perkins is a bit of a revelation, expected to be a good hitter for average without much power. He's shown some pop and is suddenly drawing walks. In May he had a .320/.387/.470 line with 13 K, 8 BB and 3 HBP in 112 PA. For the season he's at .337/.381/.513 with a .176 ISO a 12% K rate and a 5.5% BB rate.

Brian Pointer - It's been good and bad for Pointer. He sported a .245/.377/.362 line with 6 HBP, 14 BB and 25 K in 114 PA. That bumped his season line to .231/.351/.347 with a 22.4% K rate, 9.8% BB Rate and 17 SB with only 3 CS.

Roman Quinn - Quinn had an awesome month (after a rough April). .304/.413/.461 with 25 K, 16 BB and 3 HBP with 14 SB and 6 CS. My favorite part of the line in 3 HR, 3 Triples and 1 double. The Candle's line is now up to .257/.343/.387 with a 23.2% K rate, 9.1% BB Rate and 24 SB with 7 CS.

Gregori Rivero - Rivero is another big money International Free Agent from 2012 being converted to Catcher in the VSL. It's early, but strong start: .304/.333/.391, albeit with 12 K and 1 BB in 48 PA, but at 17 years old, there's time to figure that can be adjusted.

Darin Ruf - The Ruf was on fire the beginning of May. Less so as the month went on. Ruf missed 5 games with a relatively minor hand injury and has not done well post-return. His line for the month is .233/.324/.311. Well, the OBP is great, everything else isn't. For the season Ruf is .254/.325/.411 with 5 HR, a low (for Ruf) .154 ISO, and a high-ish 25.8% K Rate. Is it because of the position change? Was 2012 just a flukey, career year? It's likely a combination of those things, but unless he or Jermaine Mitchell heats up a whole bunch the next month and a half, plan on seeing a whole lot of Delmon Young with the Phillies this year.

Cameron Rupp - Had a damned fine month. He went .296/.390/.606 with 18 K, 8 BB and 6 HR. That boosts his season to .250/.340/.477 with 8 HR, .227 ISO, a 22.7 K rate and 9.3% BB rate. It's quite possible to think he 's well above Valle on most prospect rankings. I still don't think he'll be more than a solid MLB backup, but it would be very nice bench power and he's handling the challenging jump to Double-A much better than I expected actually.

Carlos Tocci - Tocci never seemed to have a good week, but he actually ended up with a pretty damn solid Month. His line for May was .269/.319/.327, 13 K, 7 BB, 1 HBP in 113 AB. That pulls his season line to .237/.285/.290 with 11.9% K and 5.5% BB and his BABiP and ISO are both improved as well. Is it enough to keep him in Lakewood longer? It might be, and it's a damned good line for a High School Senior to have against a bunch of College Juniors and Seniors (essentially), but I imagine he'll go to Williamsport in a few weeks when Short Season ball starts.

Sebastian Valle - Valle's numbers actually were better in May, but that's not saying a lot. .245/.273/.358. His season numbers are up to .202/.243/.339. It's tough to get a read on Valle, his BB rate is actually much better (though still quite bad). He seems to have stagnated Offensively and with Rupp and Joseph in house and a few top prep Catchers as possible draftees in a few days, is it possible Valle might be out of the Phillies long term plans entirely? Well, as long as he's on the 40 man he has hope, but will he ever, honestly, develop into anything more that a backup?


Jesse Biddle - The consensus top Phillies prospect cooled off a bit after his hot April going 30.1 IP, with 26 H, 32 K, 18 BB and 16 ER. Biddle's Season numbers stand at 3.23 ERA, 3.26 SIERA, 10.57 K/9, 4.40 BB/9 with 39.2% GB. That's the second best K/9 in the Eastern League. The BB rate needs to come down by ~1 BB/9 at a minimum, but the K rate is very, very promising.

Brody Colvin - Colvin hasn't struck anyone out in over a month. I'm not making that up. He struck out 3 players on May 1st and in 3 subsequent relief appearances he went 6.2 IP with 0K, 5 BB and 7 ER. Colvin has stuff, but I'm on the verge of writing him off.

Perci Garner - There are things to like about Perci's May such as a 2.90 ERA. On the downside are 23 K, 14 BB and 1 HBP in 31 IP. For the season Perci's at 2.75 ERA with 3.93 SIERA, 7.47 K/9, 3.97 BB/9 and 54.5% GB rate. I'm not entirely sure Perci will make it as a Starter, but if he moves to the Bullpen, with that GB rate and his stuff able to play up in shorter appearances, he could be really, really special. That's still a year or so away though. For now, keep him a Starter and work on his stuff. Maybe he sticks in the rotation, you can move him to the 'pen later.

Ethan Martin - Don't look now, but Martin had a really good month with pretty damn good control. 25 IP, 21 H, 21 K, 7 BB, 2 HBP and 7 ER. Martin's April was fairly bad so his season numbers still look a bit rough at 5.60 ERA, 4.48 SIERA, 8.23 K/9 and 5.27 BB/9. More months like May though and Martin could end up with a mighty fine season line showing a lot of improvement.

Yoel Mecias - Mecias had one hell of a month. The young flamethrower pitched 30 innings with 26 H, 10 BB, 1 HBP, 5 ER and a fantastic 37 K. Mecias is young for the league, so these are very promising numbers. For the year he's at 3.45 ERA, 3.32 SIERA, 10.35 K/9, 3.86 BB/9 and 44.7% GB.

Hoby Milner - Milner may indeed be turning into something. In May he went 37.0 IP, 33 H, 9 BB, 2 HBP, 9 ER and 37 K. He's at 3.90 ERA, 3.12 SIERA, 9.21 K/9, 2.34 BB/9. His flaw being that he's a bit of a fly ball pitcher leading to him giving up a decent number of home runs.

Adam Morgan - I'm not going to bother recounting Morgan's May stats, suffice it to say they were awful, but it's now clear Morgan was Pitching injured. Morgan has now officially been shut down with what is labelled a "small rotator cuff tear". I'm not a doctor, so I don't know what the long term impact on his shoulder health is (Is saying that like the Captain of the Titanic saying "Well, at least it's a small iceberg"? I don't know). What I do know is you can pretty much write off the idea of Morgan pitching in Philly this year. He's out for 3 weeks with a cortisone injection treatment. Beyond that he'll ramp up for a likely July return. He's likely to pitch in Triple-A for at least 3 weeks if there are no setbacks before there's any chance of promotion. So maybe August, but that's only if you believe the cortisone injection will get him back to 100%.

Mauricio Robles - Robles is a reliever snagged as a Waiver grab from the Mariners' system. Asa reliever, I'll skip the monthlies and let's look at his season numbers. He's pitched 27.0 Innings to a 2.67 ERA with 12.67 K/9, 4.33 BB/9. He's a severe fly ball pitcher though.

Shane Watson - Watson had a mighty rough May. 24.2 IP, 23 H, 14 BB, 2 HBP, 15 K and 14 ER. For the season his numbers are 49.2 IP, 5.26 ERA, 4.68 SIERA, 5.8 K/9, 3.62 BB/9 with a 49.1% GB rate. Watson's fairly young for the level and he's probably off to Williamsport in a few weeks. He got double jumped and it may be in his best interest to work on things in Williamsport where he can have some success and build back some confidence and improve his control.