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2013 Phillies Midseason Prospect Review

In lieu of a whole re-ranking of my preseason Top 30. Let's take a look at how some of the key players are trending. Whose stock is on the rise and whose stock is dropping?


So I thought about listing my previous ranking and adding comments, but that seems confusing, as it would suggest a ranking. Instead, everyone's listed in alphabetical order. Everyone gets a few notes and an up or down on their stock.

Aaron Altherr -
Stock = Up
Altherr started off the year red hot. He was sporting a very, very high BABiP, but his power was up and his walk rates and K rates were looking good. Those rates have trended in the wrong direction the last month or so. Still, there's enough positive to rank him up a bit.

Cody Asche-
Stock = Even
Asche is performing very Asche like so far. It's about what was expected, fairly similar to his Double-A performance and probably about what you can expect his MLB ceiling to look like. Right on track, but will drop down the rankings because of the Draft and improvements of others.

Jesse Biddle-
Stock = Even
Biddle started very strong, but has seen his walk rate rise since early May. His K rate looks good and reports have his curveball improving. Still seen as a mid-rotation option, nothing really better or worse than what he was preseason.

Leandro Castro-
Stock = Even
Might be a future 4th/5th OF.

Brody Colvin-
Stock = Down
Colvin went an entire month without a strikeout. He's moved back and forth between starting and working out of the pen. Neither has gone particularly well. Still a lot of potential, but Colvin's stock has been moving down for 2+ years now.

Kelly Dugan-
Stock = Up
Dugan's probably due to go to Reading soon. I think Dugan's for real. That doesn't mean I think he's the next Andrww McCutchen or anything crazy, but I do think he could be a 20 HR guy with an average in the .270-ish range and an OBP in the .340 area. Not an All Star, per se, but a solid option for a regular starter.

Maikel Franco-
Stock = Up
Franco's one of the hottest prospects in baseball, as far as rising stock goes. If he puts up numbers in Double-A as good or better than those he did in Clearwater, he'll be the top Phillies Prospect on every list over the winter. Of course that also carries the curse of being seen as a savior by many casual fans and the commentariat, combined with the whole heir to Mike Schmidt thing. Hopefully the Phillies don't rush him and the Cataldis of the world don't overhype him.

Perci Garner-
Stock = Even
Garner's K rate is fairly high, as is his walk rate. Garner's old for Clearwater and repeating the level, so he should be succeeding. He's probably a future reliever. His stuff could play up in relief, but he'll need more time to get his control in order, lest he be Wayne Gomes 2.0.

Tyson Gillies-
Stock = Even
Gillies stock has trended down for a few years. This year he's at least healthy. His swing is being reworked to add power, should the power continue growing and his speed return, a healthy Gillies could be a valuable reserve OF like Mayberry. Starting CF is not out of the question, but it's a long shot without significant improvement in his hitting.

Cesar Hernandez-
Stock = Up
I'll be honest I didn't really rank Hernandez or think very highly of him prior to this season. I still don't think he's a future star, but I think he stands a chance of being a league average starter. It's a high wire act, if he can't stick, he's a AAAA player, but he does stand a decent chance of holding down Second Base for a few years if Utley leaves.

Tommy Joseph-
Stock = Even
It's almost 2 months since Joseph suffered a concussion. He hasn't played enough to really get a fair read on whether he could adjust to Triple-A. So for now, I'm giving him a pass, perhaps by season's end he'll be healthy and we can see if he can adjust to the level. Truth is, he'll drop on rankings. Less because of his injury and more because others have improved while he's lost time.Still young for the level, plenty of time to make up for any lost now.

Ethan Martin-
Stock = Even
Martin strikes out a whole lot of people and walks nearly as many. You still get Good Martin and Bad Martin from start to start, but his consistency needs to improve to remain a starter. His numbers are fairly similar to last year (with an extra BB/9), he'll need to make some progress.

Yoel Mecias-
Stock = Up
Mecias has been on prospect radars, as a potential top of the rotation type arm, but I am extremely hesitant to rank guys with no full season experience. This changes this year. He'll be ranked at a healthy level if his performance keeps up.

Hoby Milner-
Stock = Up
Hoby Milner is a guy I considered fairly little before John Sickels ranked him in his Top 20. Well, bully for John. Milner has been very strong this year and looks like the kind of guy who could move quickly through the levels to fill out the back of a rotation, similar to Pettibone.

Adam Morgan-
Stock = Down
Now, I know I said I didn't ding Joseph for an injury and kept him even. Difference here is that Morgan's problems are shoulder related. That's generally bad for Pitchers, so I did consider his stock down a little. If Morgan comes back healthy, his stock will rebound.

Roman Quinn-
Stock = Even
Quinn's so fast he can turn off the switch and get under the covers before the light goes out, as the saying goes. Quinn's K rate is a bit high, but his Walk rate is strong too. Quinn's OFB rate has skyrocketed. That combined with his K rate has driven his Batting Average down. That may normalize some. The real issue for Quinn is on Defense, where he is surpassing last year's error rate a SS. He'll stay at Short for the time being, but a move across the bag or into Center is a possibility down the line.

Darin Ruf-
Stock = Even
I'm torn that his stock may be very slightly up. Reports, and the few games I've seen, seem to indicate he can play a passable Left Field. His average is trending up of late, but his power is down from last year and 2011. He'd be a very good bench bat, he can spell Howard and Brown. At this point, he doesn't really have anything to prove in Triple-A.

Cameron Rupp-
Stock = Up
Rupp profiles as a backup, so his stock isn't skyrocketing, but he did show good power in Reading and a good BB rate. His stock is up largely for those reasons with a little talk that maybe he could grow into a fringe starter in the Majors. He's struggled more in Lehigh Valley, but perhaps he can adjust by season's end.

Carlos Tocci-
Stock = Up
Tocci is, by a good margin, the youngest player in the SALLY and the second youngest player in full season ball. That he has held his own, maintained his plate discipline, doubled his ISO (though still quite low) and is playing stellar defense is what boosts his stock. He has potential to be an elite defender in Center and leadoff hitter skillset. It's too early to figure out what kind of hitter he'll be, though it's safe to assume he'll likely develop some doubles power as he matures.

Sebastian Valle-
Stock = Down
If there's anything to be excited about with Valle it's his power, which is still in line with his career numbers. If there's anything to dread about Valle's game, it's everything else he does Offensively. He K's a lot, he walks very little and his career BABiP is very low. Valle's still young, but I don't hold out much hope that he'll ever start in the Majors, but he could still be a valuable bench bat.

Shane Watson-
Stock = Even
Watson got an aggressive promotion for a guy working on his stuff. Basically, I'm giving Watson a pass. He's throwing a ton of 4 seam fastballs to build his arm strength, and is not throwing his Curve early in the games. He's still got a pretty good Ground Ball rate, his K and BB rates are good enough for a guy somewhat overhauling his repertoire.

Austin Wright-
Stock - Down
I'll admit to over-ranking Wright. The Phillies have a habit of developing lightly regarded College Pitchers into usable back of the rotation pieces. Wright is a pitchability guy who had good K rates and very low walk rates. He never had the stuff to be a top of the rotation guy, nor did he have the stuff to maintain his K rate at higher levels. That said, I didn't foresee his BB rate doubling, his Ground Ball rate falling off the table and his Outfield Fly Ball ratio rising as high as it has (thus a big uptick in HR allowed, without a big rate change). I took a chance that maybe he was Happ, instead he might be Hyatt.