Phillies Stat Notes: Bad News for the Mets

With the season about 1/5th complete, the Phillies are hanging on to a 10% chance of making the playoffs.

Contents

The intent of the Stat Notes posts is to show how the Phillies are doing in ways that aren't easily found elsewhere.

• NL Standings and team stats
• Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. the Mets
• Individual Stats: Hitters and Pitchers
• Upcoming Milestones

NL Standings and Team Stats

Using the Phillies' run-differential, their pythagorean record is only 13-20, and would project to 65-97. They've played almost 2 wins above that so far. 

Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013, and vs. the Mets

Hitting

The Phils' walk rate has rebounded over the last week:

first 13 games: 10.3% - 1st in the NL (next highest: 9.1%)
next 13 games: 4.8% - 15th in the NL (next lowest: 6.2%)
last 7 games: 8.2% - 5th in the NL

With their recent struggles, the Phillies' hitting and scoring for the season to date are now looking more and more similar to last year's stats, and most high level numbers, with the exception of Isolated power and home runs, are within 4% of those of 2013.

Mets

The Mets have scored about the same as the Phillies, averaging 3.97 per game to the Phils' 3.91, both of which are around league average. The Mets have managed to score that much despite being near the bottom in most major categories (they do have a relatively high .255 average with RISP). They've also been quite consistent in their scoring, ranking near the top of the NL in the % of games in which they score 3+ or 4+ run.

 

Phillies hitters at Fangraphs
Mets hitters at Fangraphs

Pitching and Defense

 

Phillies pitchers at Fangraphs
Mets pitchers at Fangraphs

 

Individual Stats

Hitters

Utley has gone cold:

first 11 games: .489/.549/.844 (1.393 OPS)
last 19 games: .227/.272/.320 (.592)

While Byrd has heated up:

first 21 games: .238/.274/.363 (.634)
last 12 games: .457/.479/.783 (1.262)

And so has Chooch:

first 14 games: .204/.328/.286 (.613)
last 13 games: .383/.473/.617 (1.090)

For Brown, simply combine any two cold stretches.

Gwynn and Revere have a similar OPS, but this is a case where wOBA shows somewhat more separation:

Gwynn: .294
Revere: .273

But the big difference between the two is how they get to those similar hitting values:

Gwynn: .227 average, 14.6% walk rate, for a .346 OBP
Revere: .283 average, 1.6% (!!!!) walk rate, for a .295 OBP 

Wait -- isn't "a walk as good as a hit", meaning Gwynn's much higher OBP would translate into a much higher wOBA? Many times, yes, particularly when leading off an inning. But even leadoff hitters don't start off innings all that often. The linear weights assume that a single, on average, is worth about 29% more than walk. So when we break down how much of their wOBA each player gets from what type of hitting, Gwynn's huge lead in OBP only gets him a relatively modest advantage in wOBA:

Milestones

Recent milestones and those that may be reached over the next week or so...

Jimmy Rollins -- Phillies Hits Record

According to the Phillies Media Guide, Rollins is only one hit away from tying Ed Delahanty for 3rd most hits in Phils history. The Media Guide shows Delahanty with 2,207 hits while with the Phillies. All other available sources, however, show higher totals:

mlb.com: 2,213
fangraphs.com: 2,213
baseball-reference.com: 2,214

We'll go by the 2,213 number here, giving some extra weight to mlb.com:

At the moment he is projected to pass all three during home stands, but those projected dates will move around depending on how he does in the coming weeks.

 

Jimmy Rollins -- Other

• Rollins' next time caught stealing will tie him with Schmidt for 2nd most on the Phillies list at 92. Larry Bowa holds the team record with 94. Caught stealing stats have been kept since 1951.
• He needs 9 more total bases to reach 3,500 for his career. He will join Schmidt as the only Phillies with 3,500+, and also become the 15th active player with that many. Rollins will also become just the 9th shortstop in MLB history with 3,500 or more.

Chase Utley

• Utley's double last night was the 310th of his career, and tied Del Ennis for 7th most in Phils history.
• He also struck out for the 854th time, tying Johnny Callison for 8th in team history.
• He needs three RBIs (19 on the year) to tie Pat Burrell for 9th in team history, at 827.
• Five more runs scored (22 total) will tie Billy Hamilton for 11th on the Phillies list at 874.
• His next sacrifice fly (2nd this year) will tie Greg Luzinski for 3rd on the Phillies list, leaving him behind only Bobby Abreu (54), and Mike Schmidt (108). Sac Flies were tracked at various times before, but have only been recorded continuously since 1954.

Ryan Howard

• Howard's 2 RBI yesterday tied Chuck Klein for 4th most in Phillies history, at 983 (while mlb.com, fangraphs, and bb-ref.com all show Klein with 983, the Phillies Media Guide has him at 984, so if Franzke or T-Mac think Howard still needs one more to reach Klein, that's why). In any case, still ahead of Howard are Del Ennis (1,124), Delahanty (1,286), and of course Schmidt (1,595). He will likely pass Ennis by the end of 2016, but the other two are out of reach.
• Three more total bases (59 this year) will tie Johnny Callison for 11th on the Phillies career list, at 2,426.

Cole Hamels

• On Sunday against the Mets, Hamels will make his 6th attempt to win his 100th career game. In his five starts since winning #99 last September, Hamels is 0-3, with 2 no decisions, a 6.37 ERA, 8.5 K/9, 2.7 BB/9, 0.9 HR/9, and a 3.52 FIP.

A.J. Burnett

• Burnett's next win will be the 150th of his career, making him the 5th active pitcher with 150+. Cliff Lee is tied for 6th among active pitchers, with 142.

Jonathan Papelbon

• With two more saves (11 total), Papelbon will tie Ricky Bottalico for 7th most in Phils history at 78. 

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For reference:

- Phillies All-time hitting leaders
- Phillies All-time pitching leaders