Phillies Stat Notes: Rollins 4 Behind Schmidt, Phils Look for Traction

Will soon need more decimal places to show the chances of making the playoffs.

Contents

• NL Standings and team stats
• Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. the Padres
• Individual Stats
• Today in Phillies History
• Upcoming Milestones

NL Standings and Team Stats

Phillies
The plunge continues:

- lost 8 of 9
- lost 22 of 32 since May 4th, when they were 15-14
- tied for worst record in the NL with the Cubs, at 25-36
- worst run differential per game in the NL (Arizona has a larger total differential, but have played 5 more games)
- 2nd worst pythagorean projection in the NL, ahead of only the Padres (only because losing 4-2 is worse than 5-3 for purposes of the pythagorean expectation)

The colors below tell a simple story for the Phillies: below average in hitting, and way below average in pitching (and overall).

Padres
At only 3.10 runs scored per game, there isn't anyone close to the Padres' offensive ineptitude. Even their wRC+, which adjusts for pitcher-friendly Petco field, is the worst in the league.

NL East
The East is the only division in the NL with a pythagorean projection above .500 (i.e. the only division whose teams, in aggregate, have scored more runs than they've allowed).

Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. the Padres

Hitting

Phillies
The Phils are next to last in the NL in fWAR by position players (just ahead of San Diego), and both hitting and fielding are contributing:

12th in hitting, based on wRC+ (86), ahead of only the Reds (83), Cubs (82), and Padres (76);
14th in fielding, ahead of only the Pirates.

If one's looking for things to cheer, they've grounded into the fewest double plays in the league. Yay!

Padres
San Diego's offense is at or near the bottom in virtually every hitting category. They are fifth in stealing, though.

Progression of Hitting Components

The Phillies' average runs per game has declined from the middle of the pack to below average over the last two weeks, and it's due to declines in each component of hitting:

BABIP, and Batting Average along with it, have been steadily falling since May after a hot start.

Isolated Power improved some in May but has stalled below the league average and even dropped some.

And the walk rate has dipped to the league average over the last week or so.

(dotted lines show league averages)

Phillies hitters at Fangraphs
Padres hitters at Fangraphs

Pitching and Defense

Padres
Even adjusting for their pitcher-friendly park, the Padres have a staff that has been at least average, and maybe somewhat better.

For the weekend series, the Phils will be facing:

Today: Ian Kennedy, 3.39 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 2.99 xFIP, and 1.5 WAR
Wed: Tyson Ross, 3.22 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 3.28 xFIP, and 0.8 WAR
Thu: Andrew Cashner, 2.13 ERA, 2.70 FIP, 3.21 xFIP, and 1.3 WAR

Their fielding has also been about average, i.e. much better than that of the Phils:

Phillies pitchers at Fangraphs
Padres pitchers at Fangraphs

Individual Stats

Hitters

Not a lot to be excited about in recent weeks, with Mayberry the only player to record a .900 OPS or better in the last 30, 14, or 7-day periods.

OPS Progression

Today In Phillies History

1972: Hank Aaron passed Willie Mays to take second place on the all-time home run list when he connected for number 649 against Phillie Wayne Twitchell. It was also his 14th career grand slam, tying Gil Hodges' NL record.

1974: Mike Schmidt hits a ball off a public address speaker suspended from the Astrodome roof--117 feet up and 300 feet away from home plate. The ball bounced back onto the field, and he settles for a single, and the Phils win 12-0.

1981: Pete Rose singled off of Nolan Ryan to tie Stan Musial's NL record of 3630 career hits. Ryan got revenge by fanning Rose in his next 3 at bats.

Yesterday (June 9)

1914: Visiting Pirate Honus Wagner had 2,999 hits entering the game against the Phillies. The crowd cheered when he hit a ball past the shortstop in the 4th inning, but the official scorer ruled it an error. Wagner officially got his 3,000th in the 9th inning with a double to left field.

Tomorrow (June 11)

1977: After the first three Phillies reach base to start the game, Greg Luzinski hit one out for a grand slam to help the Phillies beat Atlanta 13-10. On base were Larry Bowa, Rich Hebner, and Mike Schmidt. Luzinski hit a 3-run double later in the game, putting him one short of the team record for RBI in a game.

1983: Steve Carlton strike out 9 in a 9-7 win over Pittsburgh, bringing his season total to 101. It was his 17th season with more than 100 strikeouts, tying Warren Spahn's National League record.

1985: Von Hayes became the 21st player in major league history to hit 2 homers in a single inning, when he connected twice in the 1st during a 26-7 pounding of the Mets. In all, the Phils collected 27 hits, including 10 doubles (3 by Bo Diaz). The runs, hits, and total bases (47) are all team records for the Phillies and records for the most given up by the Mets.

1990: Lenny Dykstra starts the day hitting .407, the latest into the season he hit above .400. He would finish the year at .325.

Source: Broad and Pattison

Milestones

Recent milestones and those that may be reached over the next week or so.
(For reference, Phillies' all-time top ten lists published last week: here)

Jimmy Rollins -- Phillies Hits Record

Rollins is now four hits away from tying Mike Schmidt's franchise hits record, and needs five to pass him. With six games in the homestand, he has a good chance to set a new franchise record before the Phillies leave to go on the road again.

Jimmy Rollins -- Other

• The next time he is caught stealing (his 3rd this year), he will tie Schmidt for 2nd most on the Phillies list at 92. Larry Bowa holds the team record with 94. Caught stealing stats have been kept since 1951.
• By reaching base ten more times, Rollins will have gotten on base 3000 times in his career. He will become the 3rd Phillie to do that, joining Schmidt (3820) and Richie Asburn (3202). He will likely pass Ashburn by next year if he is still here, but Schmidt is out of reach. Rollins will also become the 12th active player with 3000+ times on base.

Chase Utley

• Utley's two Sacrifice Flies in the Reds series put him past Bobby Abreu and Greg Luzinski to move into 2nd place in Phillies history, with 55. Only Mike Schmidt (108) has more. Sac Flies were tracked at various times before, but have only been recorded continuously since 1954.
• Two more HBPs (9 total this year) will tie Utley with Kid Elberfeld for 17th most all-time, at 165. Derek Jeter is 16th (166), and Alex Rodriguez 15th (169). Elberfeld was a turn of the century infielder who first came up with the Phillies (his SABR bio).

Ryan Howard

• Howard's single on Sunday tied him with Sherry Magee for 10th most Total Bases in team history, at 2463.
• Two more intentional walks (7 total) will make him the 49th player in history, and only the 5th active player, with 150 or more. Mike Schmidt at 201 is the only other Phillie with 150+.

Cole Hamels

• With his win on Friday, Hamels tied Curt Schillling for 6th most in Phils history (at 101), leaving him behind only Carlton (241), Roberts (234), Alexander (190), Short (132), and Simmons (115).
• He needs 3 1/3 innings to also tie Schilling for 8th most innings pitched, with 1659.

Jonathan Papelbon

• Papelbon's next save (14th) will be the 300th of his career, and will tie Bruce Sutter and Jason Isringhausen for 24th most all-time. He would become the 6th pitcher in history with 300 saves by his age 33 season.

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For reference:

- Phillies All-time hitting leaders
- Phillies All-time pitching leaders