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Phillies Stat Notes: Embrace the tank

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The reverse race is on again, with the Phils looking for a top 7 pick (or better) in 2015.

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Contents

  • NL Standings and team stats
    Phillies would get 6th 2015 pick if season ended today
  • Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. Giants
    Phils are relatively good with two strikes
  • Individual Stats
    Byrd retakes the team lead in OPS
  • Today in Phillies History
    Hank Aaron hits #700 off the Phils' Ken Brett
  • Milestones
    Rollins looking for another 20-steal season, and 1300 runs scored

NL Standings and Team Stats

The Giants are in a virtual tie for first in the West. Meanwhile, the Phils are tightening their grasp on last place.

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Reverse Standings

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2015 Draft Pick:

7th if season ended today (6th by record, plus Houston's #2 comp. pick for Aiken)

6th based on projected end-of-season standings (FanGraphs: 5th by record, plus comp. pick)

Phillies Team Stats vs. 2013 and vs. Giants

Hitting

The Giants are 4th in home runs and in ISO despite their pitcher-friendly home park. Accounting for that also pushes their overall hitting from 11th (wOBA) to 5th overall (wRC+).

What they do relatively little of is steal any bases. And when they do, they're not particularly good at it.

Old friend Hunter Pence is leading the way with 3.5 fWAR, which projects to 5.7 for the full year and would beat last year's career high of 5.5. Only ten position players across all MLB have racked up more than Pence's 9.0 fWAR over the last year and a half.

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Phillies hitters at Fangraphs
Giants hitters at Fangraphs

Pitching and Defense

Phillies

Sunday's telecast:

Franzke: "[Someone] said he's impressed with the way Sizemore "mentally shortens up" with two strikes."

LA: "I wish there was more of that up and down the order."

Well, LA, it turns out that no team in the NL does better with two strikes (relative to their overall hitting) than the Phillies do.

Overall, the Phils' .662 OPS is next to last in the NL, ahead of only the woeful Padres. But their OPS with two strikes is 6th in the league, actually slightly above average. In fact, the OPS that they retain with two strikes (76% of their overall OPS), is the best in the NL:

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LA, yet again, falling back on the "why, in my day" trope.

Last in WAR...

The Phillies have flirted with the very bottom of the NL's fWAR rankings throughout the year, and as of now they are again last in the NL in combined team WAR:

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Giants
San Fran ranks well in most key pitching metrics. When adjusting for their park, xFIP- still ranks 4th, but ERA- (7th) and FIP- (8th) are only around league-average.

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Phillies pitchers at Fangraphs
Giants pitchers at Fangraphs


Individual Stats

Hitters

Grady Sizemore only has 26 PAs so he's not shown below, but in his first six games with the Phils, he's hitting .417/.462/.500 (.962 OPS), helped by a .476 BABIP.

It should be noted that Sizemore also started hot with the Red Sox:

first 9 games (38 PA): .343/.395/.571 (.966 OPS)
from then on (167 PA): .187/.263/.267 (.530 OPS)

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OPS Progression

Byrd has retaken the lead in the team OPS battle.

Dom Brown's OPS is the highest it's been since April 29th (.630). As the table above shows he's hit .321/.367/.500 (.867 OPS) over the last two weeks (30 PAs), and going a bit further back, since June 29th he's at .318/.362/.432 (.794).

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Pitchers

ERA progression

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This Date in Phillies History
1923: The Phils score 12 runs in the 6th inning in a game against the Cubs--a team record for most runs scored in an inning that stood for 80 years.
1960: Robin Roberts threw the third 1-hitter of his career, a 3-0 victory over the Giants at Candlestick Park. The game's only hit was fielded by third baseman Joe Morgan, who got to the ball but fell down before he could complete the play.
1973: Pitcher Ken Brett yielded Hank Aaron's 700th career HR. The Phils beat the Braves anyway, 8-4.
1997: Traded Darren Daulton to Florida for Billy McMillon.
2007: Jack Russell Stadium in Clearwater, FL, spring training home of the Phillies from 1955 to 2003, was demolished.
2012: Tim McCarver received the Ford Frick Award for excellence in baseball broadcasting from Baseball's Hall of Fame.
[Noooooooooo!]
Also: Happy 40th birthday, Geoff Jenkins. He is currently a coach with the independent Peoria Explorers.

Yesterday (July 20th)

1921: The Phillies drop a 10-0 decision to Pete Alexander and Chicago. Two Phillie pitchers combined to allow 23 hits without walking a batter or striking any out.
1970: The Dodgers' Bill Singer no-hits the Phils for a 5-0 win in Los Angeles. Singer also gave up no walks, but lost the perfect game on his own two errors, one a throwing error which pulled the first baseman off the bag on Don Money's infield chopper. The Phils argue it should instead be a hit.
1973: Brought in to protect a 6-4 lead in the 9th, rookie Dick Ruthven serves up a deep fly ball to Atlanta's Dusty Baker. Rightfielder Bill Robinson climbs the outfield wall at Atlanta Stadium to take away the potential tying home run, earning Ruthven the only save of his career, which saw 332 starts.
1997: In his only at-bat of the year, Jerry Spradlin strikes out. He records a single at-bat in each of the next 3 years.
2002: Tony Taylor is enshrined in the Phillies Wall of Fame
2009: In the first inning of a 10-1 victory over the Cubs, Raul Ibanez hits a 3-run home run, his 25th of the year. It's also the 207th of his career, which moves him past Pete Incaviglia on top of the all-time list of home runs by a player with a last name starting with I.

Tomorrow (July 22nd)

1918: The Phillies recorded only one hit in a 1-0 exhibition loss to the Athletics. Proceeds from the game, postponed from April, went to the family of the late William Weart. Weart died in 1917-19 flu pandemic. He was a longtime Philadelphia sportswriter/editor and secretary of the Baseball Writers' Association.
1925: Facing the Pirates, George Harper came to the plate but was sent back to the dugout because the umpires found nails in his bat. After returning with a new bat, Harper struck out on three pitches.
1958: Eddie Sawyer returns for his second stint as Phillies manager, taking over from Mayo Smith, who earned a 264-282-2 record as skipper. Sawyer had been working for a golf ball company in between stints with the Phillies.
1964: First baseman Danny Cater breaks his left arm in a 4-1 win over Milwaukee, when he collided with Joe Torre at first base.
1966: Gaylord Perry fans 15 Phils to set a San Francisco record.
1969: Richard Nixon commemorates the 100th anniversary of baseball with a White House reception. Representing the Phillies were owners Bob & Ruly Carpenter, GM John Quinn, manager Bob Skinner, and players Grant Jackson and Mike Ryan.
2012: Shane Victorino singled off of San Francisco's Matt Cain to record his 1,000th career hit. He became the first player born in Hawaii to reach that milestone.

Source: broadandpattison.com

Milestones

Recent milestones by Phillies players, and those that may be reached over the next week...

Jimmy Rollins

  • Rollins' next stolen base will make this his 11th season with 10+ HR and 20+ steals. No other shortstop has more than eight such seasons:

    10 - Jimmy Rollins
    8 - Derek Jeter
    7 - Barry Larkin
    6 - Hanley Ramirez
    5 - Jose Reyes

  • His 20th steal will also give him 13 seasons with 20+. Only two shortstops have more:

    16 - Ozzie Smith
    14 - Bert Campaneris

  • His next time caught stealing (6th of the year) will be the 95th of his career and will put him past Larry Bowa for sole possession of #1 in Phillies history. Caught stealing stats have been kept since 1951. When talking about Rollins and this caught stealing mark, lest people get the wrong idea it always feels necessary to add that Rollins has had one of the highest stealing success rates in history:

    9th highest among the 147 players with 300+ attempts
    4th highest among the 44 with 500+

  • With five more runs scored (53 total this year), Rollins will have 1300 runs scored and will become...
    - the 123rd player in history with 1300+
    - the 11th shortstop
    - the 7th active player
    - and the 3rd Phillie

Chase Utley

  • He needs 3 more hits (108 on the year) to tie 1950s shortstop Granny Hamner for 10th most in franchise history, at 1518.
  • Two more HBPs (9 total this year) will tie Utley with Kid Elberfeld for 17th most all-time, at 165. Derek Jeter is 16th (166), and Alex Rodriguez 15th (169). Elberfeld was a turn of the century infielder who first came up with the Phillies (his SABR bio).

Cole Hamels

  • Hamels' next start (his 18th of the season, scheduled for Thursday) will tie Curt Simmons for 5th most in Phils history with 262:

    499 - Steve Carlton
    472 - Robin Roberts
    301 - Chris Short
    280 - Grover Cleveland Alexander
    262 - Curt Simmons
    261 - Cole Hamels

Jonathan Papelbon

  • Papelbon's save on Saturday was the 90th with the Phils, tying Ron Reed for 6th most in Phillies history.
  • His next save will tie Rich "Goose" Gossage for 21st all-time, at 310.

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For reference:

Phillies All-time hitting leaders
Phillies All-time pitching leaders