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Phillies Stat Notes: 117 losses or bust

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The Phillies now have the second worst record in MLB, a game ahead of the Brewers, in the "race" for the first pick of the 2016 draft. Their record after 29 games projects to 106 losses for the year, but based on their run differential they would be projected to lose 117.

Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

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The Phillies are now behind only the Brewers in the race for the top pick in next year's draft.

MLB Standings

The Phils' 10-19 record over a full season would work out to 56 wins and 106 losses.

They still have the worst run differential in the league at -58, and using the pythagorean projection it translates into an expected 8-21 record, meaning they've been a bit lucky so far in winning 10 games, scary as that may be.

Extrapolated to the whole season, an 8-21 record would be 45-117. That would be the fourth highest number of losses in MLB history (tying the 1916 A's), behind only the 1962 Mets (40-120), and 2003 Tigers (43-119), and in the game's ancient history, the 1899 Cleveland Spiders (20-134).

That would obviously set a Phillies franchise record for most losses, and that's in part because the season is eight games longer now than it was when they fielded some terrible teams in the 1920s-1940s. But it would also set a new Phillies franchise record for lowest winning percentage, at .276. That's saying something for a franchise that is in its 133rd year, and which at one point spent 30 years from 1919 to 1948 posting a combined .371 winning percentage. The franchise is 1,096 games under .500 in its history (it was 1,176 games under .500 over those 30 years), and yet this year's team still has a chance to find a whole new level of ineptitude.

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NL Standings and Key Stats

The Mets are hanging on to the lead in the NL East, and may continue to do so until the Nationals get their act together. They're doing it despite a below average offense, thanks to a staff that's among the best in the league.

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Phillies Stats vs. last year, and vs. the Mets

Hitting

It's a much shorter list if we focus on the positives:

- They strike out relatively little, with the 6th lowest K% in the NL, at 19.3%
- They've been working hard at small ball, leading the league in sacrifice attempts, and 2nd in successful sacrifices. Their success rate on sacrifices (57%) is still below the NL average of 67%, but improving.
- They've been the worst in the league at advancing runners from second to third with none out (only 9 times in 28 opportunities, or 32%), though they've been above average at scoring runners from third with less than two out.

As for the Mets, they've been below average in most offensive categories, so far, but they've at least been consistent, and are tied with St. Louis for the NL lead in the percentage of games in which they've scored at last three runs. They don't run often, but seem to have chosen their spots carefully and have a 91% success rate when they do.

Hitting with RISP:

After starting the season hitting .164 with runners in scoring position in their first 18 games, they've done much better in the last 11, hitting .264.

And in their last four, i.e. the Braves series and the last game in Miami, they are 13 for 39 (.333).

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Pitching

Not much positive to say about the Phillies here, but the Mets have one of the better staffs in the NL, along with Pittsburgh and St. Louis.

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Phillies Hitters

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This view breaks out how much of each player's OPS comes from a) hits, b) walks and HBPs, and c) extra bases or power:

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Milestones

Chase Utley

- Utley's first two doubles of the year will tie Chuck Klein for 6th in franchise history (336), and the third will tie Sherry Magee for 5th at 335.

- Two more HBPs will tie him with Carlos Delgado for 14th all-time (172).

Ryan Howard

- His homerun on Wednesday was his 339th, and tied Boog Powell, Tino Martinez, and Dave Parker for 95th all-time.

- His next one will tie Jack Clark for 94th at 340.

Carlos Ruiz

- Two more ABs (71 for the year) will give him 3,000, and make him the 6th catcher in Phillies history with 3,000+.

Cole Hamels

- Hamels tonight is making the 281st start of his career, which will pass Grover Cleveland Alexander for 4th all-time in Phillies history:

1) S. Carlton 499
2) R. Roberts 472
3) C. Short 301
4) C. Hamels 281 (after today)
5) G. Alexander 280

Always-a-Phillie Jimmy Rollins

- His next run scored (13th this year) will tie Pee Wee Reese for 7th most among shortstops (and will tie Reese and Lave Cross for 108th all-time).
- His next double will be the 484th of his career and will tie him for 73rd all-time with Hal McRae. In the 48 years from 1951 to 1998, some matched it but no one surpassed the 54 doubles that McRae hit in 1977.
- Two more extra base hits (10 for the year) will tie Jose Canseco for 105th all-time.
- He needs two more RBIs for 900 in his career.