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Phillies Stat Notes: Back in the tank

A seven game losing streak has quickly erased any ideas that this team might be not-quite-awful.

By schmenkman
The man with the second highest OPS on your 2015 Phillies.
The man with the second highest OPS on your 2015 Phillies.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

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If the season were to end today, the Phillies would have the 2nd overall pick in the 2016 draft. For all of their losing, they haven't been able to overtake the Brewers for the top spot -- at least Milwaukee finally snapped a seven-game losing streak of their own yesterday.

MLB Standings

The Phillies are off today (to participate in the ALS Phillies Phestival), and will continue their nine-game homestand when the Reds come to town tomorrow. The three game sweep at the hands of the Rockies not only dropped the Phils into last place in the NL East, but also cost them their winning record at home. They also built on the worst run differential in MLB (-73):

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Speaking of run differentials, take a look at the Oakland A's in the standings below: they've scored one more run than they've allowed this season, but have a record that's only a half-game better than the Phillies. How are they managing to do this you ask? They are 3-15 in one-run games -- having an MLB-worst 4.76 bullpen ERA isn't helping on that front.

They've also won only 2 of 12 games against teams with losing records.

The Blue Jays are in a similar state: they have the second best run differential in the AL (+25), but have a 3-12 record in one-run games, and so are sitting in 4th place in the AL East.

Boston on the other hand has the worst RD in the AL at -48, which, despite being only 4 games out of first (and 5 back for the second wild card), might deter them from making any significant purchases at the trade deadline.

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NL Standings and Key Stats

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Phillies Stats vs. last year, and vs. the Reds

Hitting

There are now comments off to the right in the table below.

In addition, led by Billy Hamilton, the Reds are run wild:

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Fangraphs team hitting stats

Pitching

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Fangraphs team pitching stats

Phillies Hitters

Freddy Galvis remains ice cold, hitting .245/.311/.266 over the last 30 days, and that's with a .311 batting average on balls in play.

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Fangraphs hitting stats

Phillies Pitchers

The table below compares Phils pitchers' stats, and uses FIP and xFIP to explain where they differ from the NL average for starting pitchers.

For example for Aaron Harang:
- xFIP assumes a league-average rate of fly balls leaving the yard, and so is essentially based on walks and strikeouts, and by that measure alone Harang has allowed 3 more runs than the league average starter.
- FIP (unlike xFIP) uses the actual home runs allowed by the pitcher, and even with the two HRs he allowed on Saturday, Harang still has a very low 4.2% HR/FB rate, and so his FIP translates to 7 fewer runs allowed than an average pitcher. And since we've already established that he's 3 over based on walks and K's, he must therefore be 10 under the average in runs allowed due to home runs.
- ERA captures the rest of the activity, due to BABIP/fielding, the timing of hits, his success at stranding runners, etc. And since Harang's ERA is well below his FIP, these other factors have allowed him to allow another 8 runs fewer than league average, beyond what FIP alone can explain, making his ERA the equivalent of 15 runs lower than the average NL starter:

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Milestones

Chase Utley

- Utley's next HBP (4th this year) will tie 19th century outfielder Curt Welch for 13th all-time.

- His next walk (16th) will put him in a tie with Von Hayes (619) for 10th place in Phils history:

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Cole Hamels

- Hamels needs two more wins to tie Curt Simmons for 5th most in franchise history. Here's hoping he wins three more to pass Simmons before he's traded:

Steve Carlton - 241
Robin Roberts - 234
Pete Alexander - 190
Chris Short - 132
Curt Simmons - 115
Cole Hamels - 113

Always-a-Phillie Jimmy Rollins

- Rollins has now been caught stealing 99 times, and will soon become the 125th player in history to have beeen caught 100+. Of the other 124, only THREE had more stolen bases at their 100th CS than Rollins' 458:

Tim Raines (612)
Willie Wilson (512)
Vince Coleman (486)

Rollins has been one of the most successful base stealers in history -- to put it another way, of the 44 players with 500+ stolen base attempts since 1951 (when CS started being tracked regularly), only three have a higher SB success rate than Rollins.

Below is a summary of where he stands on some key milestones among all shortstops, among switch hitters, and then out of all players:

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Shortstops:

He’ll get to 5th all-time in total bases shortly (needs 10), as well as to 12th in most games at short (needs 9). He’ll reach Alan Trammell at #11 in hits in the next month or two (needs 22).

Switch hitters:

He could get to 4th in doubles among all switch hitters in history by the end of the season (needs 17).

All players:

He needs only three more extra base hits to reach the top 100 all-time in extra base hits, and later will likely also reach the top 100 in runs scored (needs 10) and in total bases (164).

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