The MLB First Year Player Draft begins tonight at 7 PM Eastern, with coverage on MLB Network starting at 6 PM. This year's draft is the most unpredictable I can recall. Last year there were a concensus 6 top players and they all went in the first 7 picks (the lone surprise being the Cubs selecting Kyle Schwarber). In 2013 there was a consensus Top 15 players and they all went Top 16. The interesting thing is that both years the Phillies looked like they were just outside the bubble to get one of those consensus top guys, before a team ahead of them went well down the board to draft a less expensive player, dropping a player to the Phillies. This year isn't so cut and dry. The Phillies pick 10th overall, but the only guys you can really call consensus top picks are Brendan Rogers, Dansby Swanson and Alex Bregman. Kyle Tucker is a guy who seems very unlikely to get to the Phillies, but the Phillies are reportedly all over him and are big fans. Easy to see why as he his a fairly polished hitter and may have the best power ceiling of the High School bats in this draft.
Assuming the Top 3 guys (all shortstops) all go in the Top 9 picks. Here are my rankings, based off of reported rumors, scouting visits and draft history of what the Phillies draft board may look like with links to my player previews, where applicable (I will also say that Bregman is undoubtedly #1 on the real board in CBP, as the Phillies have been on him for a long time, but he'll be long, long gone by the 10th pick).
- Kyle Tucker, OF
- Tyler Stephenson, C
- Carson Fulmer, RHP
- Cornelius Randolph, SS/3B/LF/??
- Ian Happ, 2B/LF
- Dazmon Cameron, OF
- Trenton Clark, OF
- Dillon Tate, RHP
- Garrett Whitley, OF
- Brady Aiken, LHP
Of note on that list is that #'s 8-10 are guys I haven't heard strong rumors of the Phillies being linked to, but each seem either so thoroughly in the wheelhouse of their draft history or are too good to pass up at #10. In the case of Brady Aiken, he's a Lefty from Southern California who showed advanced control and arsenal. I think he was likely top of their board last Summer and the chance to get him this year would be tempting. In addition, a rumor popped up late last week of a team in the Top 10 with a deal already in place (in principle) with Aiken.
Of course if this draft appears to be anything it is unpredictable. I have written ~30 prospect previews, the most I have done for any draft and it's entirely possible the Phillies draft someone not on that list at #10 overall.
Now for some of the nuts and bolts of the draft. The First and Second Rounds, along with the compensation and competitive balance rounds A and B will be conducted today. The Phillies hold only selection #10 in the First round and will likely make their pick somewhere around 8 PM Eastern. The Phillies Second Round selection is #48 overall and would likely occur sometime after 10 PM.
In general picks can not be traded, with the exception of the competitive balance picks (which is ironic since the whole reason picks can't be traded is it was felt it created an unfair balance toward wealthier teams who could afford to sign players cheaper/smaller teams couldn't).
On Tuesday rounds 3-10 will occur, beginning at 1:00 PM Eastern. The Phillies hold pick # 83 overall in the Third round, then from the 4th round on the Phillies will have the 9th pick in each subsequent round. Rounds 11-40 will occur Wednesday starting at Noon Eastern and will blow past in no time, as teams seem to take about 30 seconds to make each pick.
Each team receives a Bonus Pool from which to sign picks made in the first 10 rounds. The pools are based off of the slotting sytem for picks, so it's very dependent on which numbers of picks you have. The Phillies pool is $7,058,500. That puts the Phillies in the bottom of the middle third of the league for total pool money (18th highest or 13th lowest, if you're a draft is half empty type). If you exceed that total on picks from rounds 1-10 you start getting penalized money and future draft picks. I won't bother with specifics, since it's detrimental enough no one has come close to doing it. After round 10, all picks from Round 11 on, need to be signed for $100k or less, however, if you have spent less than your bonus pool for the top 10 rounds, you can apply those savings to picks made in Round 11 or later.
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