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Revisiting The Good Phight's Preseason Predictions

Prior to the start of the season, the staff of The Good Phight offered their predictions regarding the possible outcomes of the 2015 MLB regular season and playoffs. At the ceremonial halfway point of the season, just how naive do those predictions look?

By Eric Chesterton
Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

At the start of the season, we issued our staff predictions for how various things would play out. Which teams would be good? Which players would be outstanding? Which rookies would suck least? These are questions we set out to answer. In fact, we each proposed answers to those questions (and others) and published them on the internet.

The beauty of making preseason predictions, or any sort of predictions for that matter, on the internet is that they frequently lack any manner of accountability. You make your prediction, offer completely speculative justifications for that prediction, and that's it. There's security in making crazy predictions: if they turn out right, you can rub it in everyone's collective face; if they turn out wrong, you can just pretend they never happened.

But, here at The Good Phight, we try to instill a sense of accountability and rigor in our analysis of the Phillies and the game of baseball. Not only do we want to recognize those among us who made sensible predictions prior to the season, but we also want to harshly punish those who made manifestly silly predictions. There is no place for silliness on internet weblogs, after all.

In the interest of accountability, I have developed the following scale on which our staff predictions will be graded. I will rate each prediction as either "manifestly stupid," "wrong, but reasonable," or "extremely prudent." They will correspond with the following point values:

  • Manifestly Stupid (-2)
  • Wrong, But Reasonable (1)
  • Extremely Prudent (1)
"Why is stupidity punished harsher than prudence is rewarded?" you might ask. "Well," I tell you, "that is because a large portion of life's battle is simply the avoidance of stupidity." In our grading, we want to appropriately punish stupidity and praise the simple avoidance of it. That is also why incorrect, but not-stupid predictions will also be rewarded.

Lastly, a note: All classifications of predictions are made somewhat arbitrarily by the author.

Playoff Teams

NL East Champion:

  • Nationals--Extremely Prudent (1 point) -- Liz Roscher, John Stolnis, Trev223, Peter Lyons, Eric Chesterton, David S. Cohen, Phrozen, Victor Filoromo, dajafi, LTG8, RyneHeard, Jay Polinsky, Cormican
  • Mets--Wrong, But Reasonable (1 point)--Wet Luzinski, schmenkman
  • Marlins--Manifestly Stupid (-2 points)--Justin Klugh
NL Central Champion:
  • Cardinals--Extremely Prudent--Liz, Peter, Eric, Phrozen, dajafi, Cormican
  • Pirates--Wrong, But Reasonable--John, schmenkman, Cohen, Victor, LTG8, RyneHeard, Polinsky
  • Cubs--Wrong, But Reasonable--Wet Luzinski, Trev223, Justin
NL West Champion
  • Dodgers--Extremely Prudent--Liz, Justin, John, Trev223, schmenkman, Peter, Eric, Victor, dajafi, LTG8, RyneHeard, Wet Luzinski, Polinsky, Cormican
  • Padres--Manifestly Stupid--Cohen, Phrozen
NL Wild Cards (everyone is listed twice)
  • Pirates--Extremely Prudent--Cormican, Phrozen, Eric, Peter, Justin
  • Cubs--Extremely Prudent--schmenkman
  • Nationals--Wrong, But Reasonable--Justin, Wet Luzinski
  • Cardinals--Wrong, But Reasonable--John, Polinsky, Wet Luzinski, LTG8, Victor, Cohen
  • Dodgers--Wrong, But Reasonable--Cohen, Phrozen
  • Mets--Wrong, But Reasonable--Cormican
  • Giants--Wrong, But Reasonable--Victor, Ryne
  • Padres--Manifestly Stupid--Trev223, dajafi, LTG8, Liz

  • Marlins--Manifestly Stupid--Liz, schmenkman, Peter, Eric, Polinsky, RyneHeard, dajafi, Trev223, John
AL East Champion
  • Yankees--Extremely Prudent--No one
  • All the Other Teams--Wrong, But Reasonable--Everyone
AL Central Champion
  • Tigers--Manifestly Stupid--Phrozen
  • Indians--Manifestly Stupid--Liz, John, Trev223, schmenkman, Peter, Eric, Cohen, Victor, dajafi, LTG8, RyneHeard, Polinsky, Cormican
  • White Sox--Manifestly Stupid--Justin, Wet Luzinski
AL West Champion
  • Angels--Extremely Prudent--Trev223
  • Mariners--Manifestly Stupid--Liz, Justin, John, schmenkman, Peter, Eric, Phrozen, Victor, dajafi, Wet Luzinski, Polinsky, Cormican
  • Athletics--Manifestly Stupid--Cohen, LTG8, RyneHeard
AL Wild Cards (everyone is listed twice)
  • Yankees--Wrong, but Reasonable--John
  • Angels--Wrong, But Reasonable--Cormican, Liz
  • Orioles--Wrong, But Reasonable--Liz, schmenkman
  • Tigers--Wrong, But Reasonable--RyneHeard, Cormican, Polinsky, dajafi, Victor, Eric, John
  • Blue Jays--Wrong, But Reasonable--Peter
  • Indians--Wrong, But Reasonable--Wet Luzinski
  • White Sox--Wrong, But Reasonable--dajafi, LTG8, Polinsky, Trev223
  • Red Sox--Wrong, But Reasonable--Justin, Phrozen, Victor, RyneHeard, Cohen
  • Mariners--Manifestly Stupid--Trev223, Cohen, LTG8
  • A's--Manifestly Stupid--schmenkman, Eric, Wet Luzinski, Phrozen, Peter, Justin

End of Season Awards

NL MVP

  • Bryce Harper--Extremely Prudent--schmenkman, Wet Luzinski
  • Giancarlo Stanton--Wrong, But Reasonable--Liz, Justin, John, Peter, Cohen, Phrozen
  • Andrew McCutchen--Wrong, But Reasonable--Victor, LTG8, Cormican, Polinsky
  • Anthony Rizzo--Wrong, But Reasonable--Trev223, RyneHeard
  • Justin Upton--Wrong, But Reasonable--dajafi
  • Yasiel Puig--Manifestly Stupid--Eric
NL ROY
  • Kris Bryant--Extremely Prudent--Liz, Justin, John, Trev223, schmenkman, Peter, Cohen, Phrozen, Victor, dajafi, Polinsky, Cormican
  • Joc Pederson--Extremely Prudent--RyneHeard
  • Noah Syndergaard--Wrong, But Reasonable--Wet Luzinski
  • Jorge Soler--Manifestly Stupid--Eric, LTG8
NL Cy Young
  • Max Scherzer--Extremely Prudent--dajafi
  • Clayton Kershaw--Extremely Prudent--Liz, John, Peter, Phrozen, Victor, LTG8, RyneHeard, Polinsky
  • Jake Arrieta--Wrong, But Reasonable--Trev223
  • Matt Harvey--Manifestly Stupid--Justin, Wet Luzinski
  • Cole Hamels--Manifestly Stupid--schmenkman, Cohen
  • Stephen Strasburg--Manifestly Stupid--Eric, Cormican
AL MVP
  • Mike Trout--Extremely Prudent--Liz, Justin, John, Trev, schmenkman, Peter, Cohen, Phrozen, LTG8, RyneHeard, Wet Luzinski, Polinsky, Cormican
  • Josh Donaldson--Wrong, But Reasonable--Eric
  • Felix Hernandez--Manifestly Stupid--Victor
  • Jose Abreu--Manifestly Stupid--dajafi
AL ROY
  • Carlos Rodon--Manifestly Stupid--Liz, Justin, Trev, Cohen, Victor
  • Taijuan Walker--Manifestly Stupid--John, Peter, Eric, Phrozen, RyneHeard, Polinsky
  • Francisco Lindor--Manifestly Stupid--schmenkman, dajafi, Wet Luzinski
  • Joey Gallo--Manifestly Stupid--Cormican
  • Rusney Castillo--Manifestly Stupid--LTG8
AL Cy Young
  • Chris Sale--Extremely Prudent--LTG8, Cormican
  • Corey Kluber--Extremely Prudent--Liz, schmenkman
  • David Price--Wrong, But Reasonable--Eric
  • Chris Archer--Wrong, But Reasonable--dajafi
  • Carlos Carrasco--Wrong, But Reasonable--Trev223
  • Felix Hernandez--Wrong, But Reasonable--Justin, John, Peter, Cohen, Phrozen, Victor, RyneHeard, Wet Luzinski, Polinsky

THE GOOD PHIGHT PREDICTION STANDINGS

John Stolnis: 4 points

Victor Filoromo: 4 points

RyneHeard: 4 points

Jay Polinsky: 4 points

Cormican: 4 points

Liz Roscher: 1 point

Trev223: 1 point

Peter Lyons: 1 point

Phrozen: 1 point

Wet Luzinski: 1 point

David S. Cohen: -2 points

dajafi: -2 points

schmenkman: -2 points

Justin Klugh: -2 points

LTG8: -2 points

Eric Chesterton: -8 points


CONCLUSIONS

  • I know nothing about the game of baseball. If you got nothing out of this, remember this. I picked the Marlins, Indians, Mariners, and A's all to go to the playoffs. My NL Award winners were Yasiel Puig (MVP), Stephen Strasburg (Cy Young), and Jorge Soler (ROY). I also picked Taijuan Walker to win AL ROY. You shouldn't listen to me.
  • We know the National League much better than we know the American League. This makes sense since we cover the Philadelphia Phillies, a team in the National League. The AL Standings were a bloodbath as we all came out looking clueless.
  • Trev223 is a Chicago homer. For the NL Central, he picked the Cubs. He picked the White Sox for the AL Wild Card. The Cubs swept the NL Awards with Anthony Rizzo winning MVP, Jake Arrieta winning Cy Young, and Kris Bryant winning ROY. He had Carlos Rodon as AL ROY as well. How did we not notice this before the season?
  • That so many of you come to us for coverage of baseball-related topics is flattering. Look at those standings; those are the people you read for information and commentary on your favorite team. Most of us know very little. I just constantly make a fool out of myself, apparently. Yet, you all keep coming back for more. That warms my heart. Thank you.


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