I have no problem admitting to my hysterical Shane Victorino fandom. He seemed to embody the unchecked enthusiasm of the less well-adjusted fans, and did so happily while also putting up All-Star numbers. While it's exciting to see a new outfielder find his way in center, Odubel Herrera also offers me a sobering personal notice: I am now older than most of the players for who I am rooting. In my K-8 grade school, we had a program in which eighth graders were given "buddies" from the second grade class to read to for an hour every week or so. My ex-buddy, who is the same age as Herrera is now, hit a couple dingers for the Padres last season.
Which, when I allow it to, does feel a bit off. Herrera is 24, an age I have already been, whereas Victorino was in his mid to late twenties while I was in college. I was wearing the name of my hero on the back of a jersey; with Herrera, I'd be wearing the name of a kid who doesn't know who I am. The dynamic has shifted.
So, uh. As I was blithering on about over the weekend, life moves at startling speeds. Which is funny, because "startling" and "speed" are pretty solid jumping off points to looking ahead at Herrera's 2016 season, while, in the background, I contemplate getting older.
Instead of being a rook worth a look or a vet worth a bet, Herrera is one of the few members of the new, young Phillies who has a previous season on which to build. He and Aaron Altherr's big tests this year were to maintain and hopefully increase their amount of success from 2015. With Maikel Franco around, Herrera, who had appeared quite suddenly as a huge piece of the daily lineup through the Rule 5 draft, didn't face quite the level of scrutiny through which talented young players in this city are forced to survive.
Now, though - hoo boy! Herrera put himself in some pretty high profile positions and posted some pretty encouraging numbers last season. That means this season, he has to do at least as well as, say, .297/.344/.418, 16 SB, 8 HR, 3 3B, and lead the team in WAR (but hopefully with more than 3.8). He probably won't, but he made an impression nonetheless.
Herrera isn't behind anybody; he is one of the faces of the team at this point. Projections have him regressing a bit as his BABIP softens from .390-range to .340-range. But seeing as quickly as he adapted to changing from a second baseman into an everyday center fielder, Herrera's instincts are good and his raw talents - speed, contact, defense, nickname - will only sharpen as he gets another year of playing time, presuming nothing goes wrong.
#Phillies outfielder Odubel Herrera appears to have injured his middle finger https://t.co/iCxghSJrrj pic.twitter.com/QW1LqEps5Z
— Sports Talk Philly (@sportstalkphl) March 14, 2016
Gaaaaaaah, nuts.
Herrera's preseason injury wasn't supposed to be a big deal, even though he's missed the last ten games. X-rays came back negative and he was on track to get back to work this week.
Until suddenly, everybody started removing the word "not" from their statements on "not being concerned about Odubel Herrera's middle finger injury." Hopefully, this isn't one of those long term finger maladies, so we can get back to projecting deeply enough into the future that we cannot possibly be accurate. In the interim, Herrera and Pete Mackanin don't super-agree on the timing of his return to the lineup.
I mentioned "defense" as one of Herrera's skills up there. It's worth noting that Herrera has yet to portray the consistent outfield reflexes needed to keep everyone calm when a wonky fly ball soars his way. His routes can meander and there are a lot of times when his glove simply juts out at the last second to make the catch. Fortunately, this happened enough times that he was able to finish among the league leaders in defensive proficiency out there.
Look at this. What is this.
While Herrera's downfalls in center bring to mind those of his predecessor Ben Revere, he is superior to him in most ways. One of those ways is his arm strength, which he used to make five assists last season.
The long and short of it is that Herrera possesses an effective set of raw baseball talents, several of which could use a few more reps. But with the path he took to get here and the Phillies' ravenous hunger for young talent as they reconstruct, his potential ceiling outweighs any current concerns (his plate discipline has also come up as an issue) on his overall play.
Should things progress naturally, Herrera's various skills could blossom - his pockets of power could take his home run total into double digits, his speed could balloon his extra-base hits, more exposure to center field could make him better at tracking balls, and, with Peter Bourjos in the fold, Herrera might see some time in the corners, making him more versatile. There is some universally-cited potential at play in Herrera's case, making his second full year as a Phillie all the more intriguing to monitor.
Also I am free to read him stories for an hour every week or so if the Phillies think it will help.
See, now, I did it; I made it weird.