Phillies 2016 Draft Preview: A final look at players

A.J. Puk - I wrote about Puk in February. Literally writing while he was pitching the season opener, so there was no 2016 at all in my profile of him. So what changed? Not much really. Puk is essentially the same Pitcher. His K rate is almost exactly the same as his Soph. year, his Walk rate is down ever so slightly, his control is very slightly better, but his command remains a bit wonky at times. Puk has a #1 ceiling, but he's more likely a #2 or top #3 Starter who shows flashes of that #1 potential. As John Manuel said on Felske Files last week a true #1 Starter is pretty rare and a #3 Starter (by prospect profile,not by results or where they actually get slotted in a rotation) is a pretty good outcome for any draft pick.

Buddy Reed - I mostly profiled Reed because I Was already looking at Florida due to Puk. Reed was in early 1:1 discussions this spring, but never really took the steps forward to stay in that conversation. I actually think Reed is a great buy low option in Round 2. He suffered from a lower BABiP this year while showing a little bit of power and better baserunning. He K's more than you'd prefer, but he also walks at a very respectable rate and he has Plus Defense in Center Field. If the Phillies select Puk at #1, Reed may be a good grab at 2:1, if he's available. If Moniak's the pick, Reed may be a little odd as it would create a bit of a Center Fielder bottleneck in the system with Williams, Quinn, Tocci, Reed and Moniak sucking up all the playing time at virtually each level. Good problem to have and you should always take best available, but I could understand going a different direction at 2:1 if you consider it a coin flip with the only difference being position.

Delvin Perez - Perez still gets good scouting reports and is almost certainly the best Shortstop prospect in this class prep or College. While the Phillies seem to like up the middle prospects in the International Free Agent pool and have gone up the middle quite often in the top 2 rounds of the draft, there hasn't been much in the way of rumors linking the Phillies to Perez. He held a private workout for the team in late May, but that is pretty much the extent of the rumors with him. If the Phillies take him it would be a bit out of left field. That said, recent "out of leftfield" picks (so to speak) include Kyle Schwarber and Carlos Correa, so it's not necessarily a bad thing.

Nick Senzel - Senzel's had a really good season and is a sure fire Top 15 pick. That said I have yet to see a single rumor linking him to the Phillies (I've seen guesses that he'd be a possible pick, but nothing with any meat on the bone). Senzel's got a good eye and improved his power this year. Of course most of that power increase has been doubles, but you can't ask the kid to do much more than double his Homers and his Doubles. He has also significantly improved his K and BB rates (~10% and 20% respectively), while also being much more aggressive on the basepaths. He'll be a good player for someone, just not the Phillies.

Riley Pint - Pint is hurt a bit by Tyler Kolek's career so far. I think Pint's raw stuff is better than Kolek's was, but not by much. Pint's got amazing tools, but it's going to be 3-4 years of working on his mechanics and refining his pitches to get there. No one wants to spend that much time and effort on a #1 overall pick. Pint will go Top 15 though, the tools are way too good to slide past there, but not good enough to take higher than probably about 7th.

Corey Ray - Corey Ray spent 2016 being Corey Ray. His numbers of 3 years in the ACC have barely changed. The best sign of improvement his K:BB rate is nearly 1:1 this year, improving from 2.5:1 last year. Very little change anywhere else in his numbers. A very slight uptick in power and a perfect 44 for 44 in base stealing. Ray's a solid Center Field prospect who will almost certainly go Top 5. Still in play for #1 and there have been some Phillies rumors, but they really cooled about 3 weeks ago.

Kyle Lewis - Lewis' season has been a few steps beyond insane. His OPS is a Bonds-ian 1.266, he drew more Walks than K's (largely that no one in their right minds in the Southern Conference even pretends to pitch to him in tight games) and even his baserunning is less pretty bad than it used to be. The Phillies were heavily rumored to be big fans and I fully expected Lewis to go #1, but rumors have moved on to new favorites. I'm still not ruling it out, but if I were a bookmaker, I'd set the odds at 25%. The bat looks quite legit and worthy of a #1 overall pick, it's the small school thing that hurts his profile a bit.

Jason Groome - Groome is out of the running for top pick. Big maturity question marks apparently and while he has very good stuff for his age he has exactly the same stuff he had last Summer. If he's done improving, forget the Ace ceiling, that may not even be an MLB ceiling.

Blake Rutherford - It's only been a few weeks since I wrote about Rutherford, so no real changes other than rumors. Rumors have been that the Phillies like him, but prefer Moniak, due to his higher floor with excellent Defense at a premium position. Rutherford reminds me a little of Clint Frazier a few years back, good power, a little less refined than his good friend Austin Meadows, but Frazier's coming along nicely. I think Rutherford will make some team look pretty smart.

Mickey Moniak - Mickey Mo as he's known is the other guy with a ton of rumors surrounding him at 1:1. Rumors slightly favor Puk so maybe it's 40% chance the pick is Puk, 35% it's Mo and 25% for Lewis. I really think everyone else is out of the running now.  I'd be pretty thrilled with Moniak, though his profile feel more like a top 5 pick and less #1 overall, but this is a deep draft, sadly lacking in top tier names. Even then 2005 was a similarly weak draft and still produced some stars. Klentak, Almaraz, Gillick and MacPhail are about to make their names with this one and they've got their work cut out for them.