PROfile: Cole Stobbe, SS

I really had no idea what to expect of the Phillies draft this year with a whole new front office. I actually though they might go heavy on College players, as was the trend in Anaheim where Klentak came from. Perhaps they'd balance their risks by going with a mix of College and High School players over the first 3 picks. Instead the Phillies went high potential High Schooler after high potential High Schooler after high potential High Schooler.

Cole Stobbe is a 6'1", 200 lbs Shortstop from Omaha, NE. MLB ranked him the 47th best Prospect in the Draft, while BA ranked him 145th. That's a mighty large delta and it's been consistent that Stobbe is a bit of a Rohrshach test among Draft prognosticators. If you like him it's because you think he can stick at Shortstop or fix the swing and miss in his game. If you don't like him it's because you see him as a Second Base only prospect who will strike out to often to unlock his Above-Average power and make full use of his Average speed on the bases.

The power is real and there might be a little projection left to it. He set a school record this Spring with 14 Homers (previous record: 9). Some of that is bat aided and all of it middling competition aided, but he does have Plus bat speed and a swing that should generate Above-Average Power. He is pull happy though, so he'll be susceptible to shifts. As a Right Handed hitter those shifts won't be as extreme, but it could still hamper his Average.

High School hitters as a whole are pretty hard to gauge, due to the bats and level of competition, but that is especially true for kids from states without a track record of sending guys to pro ball. Nebraska is fairly barren in terms of Draft prospects. The Phillies do have some history with Nebraska born players though, having Drafted or developed such players as Mike Zagurski, Darin Ruf, Jake Diekman, Todd Pratt and Richie Ashburn. In order to really Scout players from states with poor competition, you need to see them in showcases and lots of them. Stobbe made his way to lots of showcases last year. Starring in the Perfect Game series and also starting at Shortstop for the 18U USA Baseball squad in the Fall.

Stobbe is kind of the Kelly Dugan of this draft class. He comes in with a lot of Average tools and no real glaring weaknesses. That can get you pretty far, but without that one tool that stands out it can be tough to get to the show. You need everything to go right. You can't get derailed by injuries. You need all of those tools to reach their potential otherwise you could end up with a glaring weakness that stops your climb. If it does all come together, I've seen comps to Brian Dozier and Jed Lowrie. I think Lowrie is a bit more realistic, as I don't see nearly 30 HR power in Stobbe's bat. Looking at Lowrie's journeyman path through baseball the last 10 years though gives you an idea why his rankings vary as much as they do. If Stobbe turns into Lowrie, that's not bad for a Third Rounder, but it is kind of fungible.