2018 Draft Order
With three games to go, the Phillies are looking increasingly like they will wind up with the #3 overall pick in the June 2018 draft:
Giants 62-97 - host the Padres this weekend
Tigers 63-96 (1.0 GB) - at the Twins
Phillies 64-95 (2.0 GB) - host the Mets
White Sox 66-93 (4.0 GB) - at the Indians
(The Phillies win the tie breaker against any of these other three teams, by virtue of having the worse record in 2016)
Unless the Phillies win out and the White Sox lose out (and given their opponents that’s a viable scenario), the Phils will get no worse than the 3rd pick.
Anything can still happen though, and while it’s unlikely, if the Phillies lose two more than the Giants this weekend, and lose one more than the Tigers, they can still wind up with the first overall pick. Ok - very unlikely.
Look at all the red on the Mets’ row, indicating they’re in the bottom three in the NL. You almost have to feel bad for the them and the injuries they’ve suffered.
First, note the swing of more than 14 games in their “luck” factor, i.e. the degree to which their actual wins differ from what their run differential would predict.
Last year the Phils did unusually well in one-run games, and beat their pythagorean projection by nine games. This year they’ve struggled in those one-run games, and have won five fewer games than what their runs scored and allowed would predict.
At the plate, the Phillies’ offense has been better than last year’s across a number of metrics (granted, it would have been hard to be worse).
It’s interesting to note how little they have sacrificed this year, ranking dead last in not only successful sacrifices (SH/G), but also total sacrifice attempts (SH Att/G).
Overall their runs allowed and ERA are about the same as last year’s, but that’s in a higher scoring environment, so they’ve actually seen some improvement, from 12th in both in 2016, to 10th this year.
Their fielding, on the other hand, has been surprisingly bad, ranking either the same or worse in the advanced stats.