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Addressing the Phillies Offseason

After going a disappointing 80-82 and placing 3rd in the NL East behind the Atlanta Braves and Washington Nationals, the Phillies have all eyes set on free agency. The Phillies are likely to be a team that will throw around a ton of money this offseason to attract big name free agents in an effort to chase a ring in 2019. The Phillies have the potential places in place and in the minors to compete, but bringing in big-time free agents give the Phillies a greater chance to make a deep postseason run. With that said, let’s take a look at the money that the Phillies currently owe to their players in 2019:

Player

2019 Salary

Jake Arrieta

$25,000,000

Carlos Santana

$20,333,333

Tommy Hunter

$9,000,000

Pat Neshek

$7,750,000

Odubel Herrera

$5,350,000

Scott Kingery

$1,500,000

Total salary commitment: $68,933,333 for 6 players

Nothing here except Jake Arrieta is overly concerning. Arrieta is down from 27.1 K% in his Cy Young season in 2015 to 19.1 K% with the Phillies in 2018, and his strikeout percentage has dipped in every season since 2015. Jake used to be among the league’s best in strikeouts, and now that he isn’t missing as many bats, there is cause for concern. He is also struggling with his walk rate, as he posted a 3.0 BB/9. The biggest problems are the noticeable reduced velocity, with his fastball losing at least 2-4 MPH 2015, and the fact that he is throwing more pitches in the zone and getting fewer hitters to chase. Arrieta’s curveball is still nasty with a big break, so he just needs to find a way to put it all together the same way he did in 2015. With that said, let’s move on to potential 2019 arbitration/team control numbers. Please note that these numbers are just my estimates.

Player (ARB/TC)

Potential 2019 Salary

Cesar Hernandez (ARB)

$9,000,000

Aaron Nola (ARB)

$6,600,000

Justin Bour (ARB)

$5,200,000

Maikel Franco (ARB)

$5,000,000

Luis Avilan (ARB)

$3,000,000

Vince Velazquez (ARB)

$2,500,000

Hector Neris (ARB)

$2,000,000

Luis Garcia (ARB)***

$1,700,000

Jerad Eickhoff (ARB)***

$1,700,000

Aaron Altherr (ARB)

$1,600,000

Adam Morgan (ARB)

$1,100,000

Jorge Alfaro (TC)

$560,000

Drew Anderson (TC)***

$555,000

Victor Arano (TC)

$565,000

Dylen Cozens (TC)***

$555,000

J.P. Crawford (TC)

$555,000

Austin Davis (TC)***

$555,000

Enyel De Los Santos (TC)***

$555,000

Seranthony Dominguez (TC)

$570,000

Zach Eflin (TC)

$580,000

Rhys Hoskins (TC)

$580,000

Andrew Knapp (TC)

$555,000

Adam Morgan (TC)

$555,000

Nick Pivetta (TC)

$565,000

Roman Quinn (TC)

$555,000

Edubray Ramos (TC)

$555,000

Yacksel Rios (TC)***

$555,000

Ranger Suarez (TC)***

$555,000

Mitchell Walding (TC)***

$555,000

Nick Williams (TC)

$570,000

Total salary commitment (ARB/TC): $45,565,000

Total amount the Phillies are spending on the current team (before adding free agents): $114,498,333

The Phillies are in an excellent position for free agency, as they have $91,501,667 to spend before they hit the luxury tax line of $206,000,000. They could use a star bat and a big arm in free agency, as well as a reliever or two to solidify the pen. Let’s take a look at some options that the Phillies could potentially target.

Player

Potential 2019 Salary

Manny Machado

$210M/7yrs ($30M per season)

Bryce Harper

$335M/10yrs ($33.5M per season)

Madison Bumgarner (Trade Candidate)

$12M

Corey Kluber (Trade Candidate)

$15.2M ($46.2M left on contract)

James Paxton (ARB/Trade Candidate)

$9M

Carlos Carrasco (Trade Candidate)

$9.75M ($19.25M left on contract)

Nathan Eovaldi

$56M/4yrs ($14M per season)

Patrick Corbin

$125M/5yrs ($25M per season)

Andrew Miller

$64M/4yrs ($16M per season)

Zach Britton

$33M/3yrs ($11M per season)

Dallas Keuchel

$105M/5yrs ($21M per season)

Jonathan Lucroy

$2.4M/1yr

J.A. Happ

$21M/2yr

Craig Kimbrel

$85M/5yrs ($17M per season)

Justin Wilson

$13M/2yrs ($6.5M per season)

Michael Brantley

$65M/4yrs ($16.25M per season)

There’s a lot to break down here, so let’s talk about the trade candidates’ first:

Madison Bumgarner: So far, Giants president of baseball operations Farhan Zaidi won’t rule out a deal involving Madison Bumgarner. If the Giants are looking to distance themselves emotionally from Madison and attempt to rebuild the Giants for the future, then a deal between the Giants and the Phillies, who have a top 10 farm system, could be in the cards. The Phillies will likely look to hold onto top prospect Sixto Sanchez, so a deal could look like Mickey Moniak, Luis Garcia, and Ranger Suarez. It is steep, but Madison Bumgarner is well worth the price, especially if he is able to deliver in the playoffs as he does and if the Phillies can lock him up on a long-term deal.

Corey Kluber: The Indians are another team that are at least exploring trading an ace, and multiple teams have kept in touch with the Indians regarding the 2-time Cy Young winner and current Cy Young finalist Corey Kluber. Any deal for Kluber will include Sixto Sanchez due to Kluber’s recent track record. Potentially the deal would be Sixto Sanchez, Adam Haseley, and Jhailyn Ortiz, and there could very well be more added into the deal. If the Phillies wind up being in on Manny Machado, then they could very well look to part ways with Scott Kingery or J.P. Crawford in a potential deal as well, as it could also be a deal of Sanchez, Kingery, and Ortiz or Sanchez, Crawford, and Haseley that gets Kluber to Philadelphia.

Carlos Carrasco: Corey Kluber isn’t the only Indians pitcher that Cleveland is looking at unloading. Next, to adding Corey Kluber, a Carlos Carrasco reunion would be another big addition for the Phillies. For those who may not remember, Carrasco was one of the prospects the Phillies traded in order to acquire former Cy Young winner Cliff Lee in 2009. Since then, Carrasco became a Cy Young candidate in 2017 and has molded himself into one of the better pitchers in baseball. With a fastball that touches 95 MPH and a sinker around 94 MPH, Carrasco has proven to be a strikeout machine while being fairly consistent. Due to the fact that Carrasco is has a very affordable contract and he has had success for the Indians, his price tag will be fairly high, much like Kluber. Sixto Sanchez would very likely have to go in this deal in order for the Indians to think about giving up Carrasco, along with another prospect or two like Mickey Moniak. This is another situation where if the Phillies were presented with the opportunity to trade for a pitcher like Carrasco, they would jump on it, as it would put their rotation in the conversation for the best in the NL East.

James Paxton: Yet another team looking to trade an ace, many teams have been contacting the Mariners regarding stud LHP James Paxton. This trade would make the most sense for the Phillies, as before Ranger Suarez made his Phillies debut, it had been a while since a left-hander made a start for the Phillies. Furthermore, Paxton will not cost the same haul that Carrasco and Kluber will demand. Paxton is 30 years old but has two years of arbitration left, which works in the Phillies favor as it leaves more money to spend on free agents. A deal of Mickey Moniak and perhaps Spencer Howard or another mid-level prospect would be more than enough to get a deal done for James, and it still leaves the Phillies plenty of other top prospects in their system to have a nice future and still win now.

Now that the trade targets are all sorted out, we can discuss free agency and who the Phillies could be looking to add.

Starting Pitcher

Nathan Eovaldi: Nathan Eovaldi comes into free agency as one of the more interesting starters on the market. His fastball touches around 99 MPH and has gotten up into triple digits before, making his stuff absolutely filthy. Although he had Tommy John surgery in 2016, it did not seem to affect his stuff, it actually seemed to help him gain one or two MPH on his fastball. Eovaldi was one of the postseason heroes for the Red Sox, posting a 1.61 ERA across the entire postseason, especially in the world series, where he tossed six innings in relief in Game 3, although he did allow a game-winning home run to Max Muncy. Eovaldi had never pitched on consecutive days before, yet proved effective for Alex Cora as he pitched the eighth inning of Games 1 and 2, then for the six innings in Game 3. Any team that gets Eovaldi would get a fireballer with tons of talent. The only thing that will hold Nathan from getting a huge deal is his injury history. With two Tommy John surgeries on his resume, some will be hesitant to pay big time bucks and will likely look to try to sign him on a deal that gives around $13-15 million per season over 4 seasons. The Phillies would benefit from having a strong pitcher like Eovaldi, and should strongly consider him.

Patrick Corbin: The Phillies desperately need a left-hander in the rotation, and Patrick Corbin could be a good fit. Before needing Tommy John surgery, Patrick Corbin was an all-star, going 14-8 with a 3.41 ERA with 178 K’s over 208.1 IP. It took Patrick Corbin around 4 years to get back to all-star form, posting a 3.15 ERA and a 2.47 FIP over 200 innings with 246 K’s. Acquiring Corbin would mean the Phillies would have a solid second option to Aaron Nola and make their rotation playoff viable.

Dallas Keuchel: Yet another left-hander that the Phillies could use in the rotation. Keuchel is not far removed from his Cy Young season, where he went 20-8 with a 2.48 ERA and a 2.91 FIP. He would be a solid option for the Phillies if they are unable to get Patrick Corbin.

J.A. Happ: A J.A. Happ reunion would be great for the Phillies. Happ had a 9.8 K/9 this past season, showing that he can still be a viable source of strikeouts, and he went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA with the Yankees. The Phillies should consider a 2-year reunion at the minimum with Happ, as he is a solid left-hander who also provides another veteran presence for the ball club.

Relievers

Andrew Miller: The Phillies are in desperate need of left-handers. Not just in the starting rotation, but in the bullpen too. Andrew Miller would be the perfect candidate. He is coming off an injury-riddled season that resulted in an inflated ERA, but his 1.44 ERA in 2017 and 1.45 in 2016 is more indicative of what kind of reliever he is. Adding a dominant lefty to the bullpen would work wonders for the Phillies, especially one as dominant as Andrew Miller.

Craig Kimbrel: The Phillies need a definitive closer, so why not go after one of the best in the game? Kimbrel is a downright filthy reliever, with his knuckle curve and upper 90’s fastball. Kimbrel is no stranger to the NL East, having pitched for the Braves from 2010-2014. He could completely dominate the National league with his repertoire and would be well worth the investment from Philadelphia. Even though he had a down season from 2017, allowing 4.5 BB/9 and a 2.74 ERA in 2018, the saves and K’s were still there, as he struck out 13.9 per 9 innings. While the Phillies do have Seranthony Domínguez that could serve as the closer, there’s no denying that Kimbrel would be an excellent addition to the bullpen.

Zach Britton: If the Phillies can’t get Kimbrel to close for them, then Britton is the next best option. He’s not yet back to his dominant form before sustaining injuries but has shown that he can still be the man to close out a game for a ball club. Because of his injuries and the fact that he hasn’t closed full time since the 2016 season, Britton will likely be a bargain for any team looking for a closer with great stuff. Even if the Phillies decide to move forward with Seranthony as the closer, Britton still has great stuff as a setup man.

Justin Wilson: Justin Wilson is another intriguing lefty specialist that the Phillies could probably pick up on a bargain. He was off to a great start in 2017 for the Tigers before he got shipped off to the Chicago Cubs, where he never gained his footing on the year. 2018 Was a much better season for Wilson, posting a 3.46 ERA with 69 strikeouts in 54.2 IP. Wilson fared well mostly against left-handers last year, posting a 1.61 ERA versus a rough 4.73 ERA against right-handed bats. If he is not overused throughout the year and used as a lefty specialist then Wilson could be exactly what the Phillies need.

Catcher

Jonathan Lucroy: The Phillies traded for Wilson Ramos mid-season because they needed another catcher who frames well. Wilson Ramos is likely not to return to the Phillies, and the Phillies remained committed to Jorge Alfaro so they need a backup catcher. Lucroy is a fine cost-effective option. He’s coming off two down years, but isn’t far removed from being one of the best catchers in the game, and could take a 1 year prove-it deal with the Phillies.

Infielders

Manny Machado: It wasn’t long ago that Manny Machado recognized the talent that the Phillies currently have on the roster, as he said "They’re a good ballclub. They’re young, they’re hungry, they want to win…they’ve been impressive." A 4-time All-star, 2-time Gold Glove winner and a Platinum Glove winner in 2013, Machado made a switch this past season from third base to shortstop full time for the Orioles before being shipped off to the LA Dodgers at the trade deadline. Machado’s huge and consistent bat would be a major upgrade for the Phillies. While the Phillies still have Crawford and Kingery on the roster, the Phillies should not hesitate to make a move for Machado and then deal Kingery and/or Crawford if it comes down to that for pitching, as he would be an instant upgrade at either shortstop or third base. Manny seems to prefer shortstop, but he did play some third base for the Dodgers in his short time there and could do the same for the Phillies, which helps the Phillies mix and match their lineups depending on the situation.

Outfielders

Michael Brantley: Should the Phillies decide to go a different direction than Harper (or just whiff on him altogether), then the Phillies should consider signing Michael Brantley. Philadelphia had a serious defensive problem in left field, and besides Hoskins, none of the outfield bats were highly impressive in 2018. Michael Brantley is the very definition of consistency when he is healthy, with a career .295/.351/.430 slashing, 18 homers and 81 runs batted in, 18 stolen bases on 23 attempts and a 54:74 BB:K per 162 games. The problem with Brantley is that he hasn’t been able to stay healthy, as he only played 101 games between the 2016-2017 seasons, for a grand total of 31% games played. He was able to stay mostly healthy this season, as he played 143 games, his most since 2015. If signed, he would be an effective hitter near the top of the order, as he posted a .297 batting average leading off this past season, and a .306 batting average batting second. Consistency is what the Phillies need, as they did not have a consistent contact hitter at all during 2018.

Bryce Harper: The Phillies could use a player like Bryce Harper, someone who could be the face of the franchise. While he hasn’t been the perfect model of consistency, nor has he been a plus defender, ever since his MVP 2015 season he has shown a patient eye at the plate, posting a 430:516 BB:K ratio. Bryce didn’t hit for average this year (.249 BA) but hit 34 home runs and 100 runs batted in with 13 stolen bases to make up for that. The Phillies have the money to give the Scott Boras represented all-star a deal worth well north of $300 million and will fit in well with fellow power-hitter Rhys Hoskins. Bryce’s personality and the fact that he is well known will bring fans old and new to Citizens Bank Park for years to come. What is even more enticing is that Bryce seems to thrive in Citizens Bank Park, where he has hit .268 with 14 homers and 32 runs batted in with a .930 OPS across 50 games. Bryce is the kind of star talent that you want on your team, as he wants nothing more than to win, and win now, and this sort of drive is an intangible that is highly valuable, especially with the younger players on the roster.

Taking a look at the free agents available, and the Phillies desire to get back into the playoffs, Philadelphia will likely spend big this offseason. With that said, free agency could look something like this:

Manny Machado (SS/3B) ($30M)

Bryce Harper (OF) ($33.5M)

James Paxton (LHP) ($9M)

Andrew Miller (RP) ($16M)

Jonathan Lucroy (C) ($2.4M)

Zach Britton (CL) ($11M)

Total Spent: $101,900,000 (Putting the Phillies over the luxury tax, but only by approximately $10M)

In this scenario, the Phillies spend big time money on free agents and also successfully trade for a solid left-hander in James Paxton. These pieces would instantly get them back into the playoffs and Philadelphia would be primed for a deep playoff run. If the Phillies were to whiff on Machado and Harper, and are also unable to trade for a starter, then their offseason could also look like this:

Patrick Corbin (LHP) ($25M)

Jonathan Lucroy (C) ($2.4M)

Michael Brantley ($16.25M)

Andrew Miller (RP) ($16M)

Justin Wilson (RP) ($6.5M)

Craig Kimbrel (CL) ($17M)

Total Spent: $83,150,000

Or

J.A. Happ (LHP) ($10.5M)

Jonathan Lucroy (C) ($2.4M)

Michael Brantley ($16.25M)

Andrew Miller (RP) ($16M)

Justin Wilson (RP) ($6.5M)

Craig Kimbrel (CL) ($17M)

Total Spent: $68,150,000

This would still be a successful offseason for the Phillies, and they could always look to 2020, where players like Madison Bumgarner, Chris Sale, Xander Bogaerts, Nick Castellanos, Marcell Ozuna, and Nolan Arenado will all be free agents.

The Phillies could go a plethora of different ways this offseason, but as long as they address the rotation, the bullpen, and get a consistent hitter, then Philadelphia will be in good shape heading into 2019. Is there a free agent that you want the Phillies to go after (besides Machado and Harper)? Let me know down below.