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Phillies Stat Notes: Mets come to town, and Odubel goes streaking

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After the sweep of the Giants, the Phillies are 22-15, back up to the 4th best record in the NL, and 12 game behind the Braves in the East. They’re also 4th in both scoring and in fewest runs allowed, and their overall hitting (wRC+) is now 4th as well to match their run scoring.

Standings

After starting the season 11-1, the Mets have lost 16 of their last 23, and more recently 8 of their last 9, getting swept by the Braves and Rockies before losing 2 out of 3 to the lowly Reds.

Pythagorean projections (based on run differentials) don’t mean as much in only 35 games, but having said that the Mets’ run differential is -14, translating to 16-19, or a 74-win full season’s pace.

The Phils have gotten to 22-15 with a balance of offense and pitching (though each has had its ups and downs), as shown by the preponderance of green on their row:

Batting

The Phillies are 4th in the NL in scoring (4.84 runs per game), and also 4th in overall hitting (wRC+ of 101). Despite their 20-run game, and two recent 11-run outbursts, they’ve been a bit more consistent than most teams, and they are 3rd in the NL both in scoring 3+ runs in a game, and scoring 4+.

Their strength has been in getting on base (3rd in OBP), although even their overall power (ISO) is now up to 7th best.

The Phils still lead in pitches per PA, but have fallen to 2nd in walk rate, at 11.0%.

Below is the team’s progress on various key metrics, with a dotted line for each showing the NL average.

Batting average has been rising, and at .242 is finally above the NL’s average.

ISOlated Power is back up over the average for the season to date, thanks to the pounding the Phils gave the Giants.

The walk rate has been dipping, but is still well above the NL average of 9.3%.

Batting — Individual

Below is how each Phillie hitter’s OPS has progressed over the last month. And because wOBA provides a more accurate view of hitting, that’s included as well. Note for example that while Franco has passed Cesar in OPS, they are essentially tied in wOBA.

The two colorful columns in the middle of the table below compare each hitter to the average OPS at that position: first the average at the position for last year’s Phillies, and then for last year’s NL average at the position.

Franco for example is 25% above what the Phils got from all their third basemen last year, and 7% above last year’s league average OPS for a third baseman.

Rhys Hoskins’ OPS has been only .550 over the last two weeks:

Odubel Herrera leads the NL in batting average, at .353. No Phillie has won a batting title in 60 years, since Richie Ashburn in 1958.

The Streak

Herrera comes into play tonight having gotten on base in 39 straight games, the 8th longest on-base streak in Phillies franchise history:

Four of those 39 games were in 2017, and he has gotten on base in his first 35 games of this season, which has already shattered the franchise record of 26 at the start of a season, set by Jayson Werth in 2010.

Among all major leaguers, 39 games is the longest on-base streak since Werth and Freddie Freeman both had streaks of 46 games in 2016.

And for streaks at the start of a season, it’s the 3rd longest in the majors since 2010, and the longest since Matt Holliday got on base in his first 45 games of the 2015 season.

Pitching

Phils pitching is 5th in the NL in ERA, but 2nd in FIP* (and 3rd in WAR, per fangraphs).

The starting rotation in only 6th in ERA, but 3rd in FIP, and 2nd in WAR.

*FIP (Fielding-independing pitching) is based only on the stats that are considered to be most controllable by pitchers: strikeouts, walks, and home runs. xFIP takes that one step further by also assuming that home runs are only controllable by a pitcher to the extent to which they allow fly balls to be hit, and adjusts their HRs to the league-average rate of HRs per Fly Balls.