FanPost

Is Bryce Harper the worst contract in MLB history?

I am a lifelong phillies fan who's excited about our timeline of contention being accelerated, I hope that I'm wrong here and we end up viewing the Harper signing as the move that cemented us a championship or at the very least a few division titles. I fear instead this contract is going to become a millstone on a team already possessing a few high risk, big money players, speaking of the age 32, 33 seasons of Jake Arietta and Andrew Mccutchen, and an age 34 season tacked on in Mccutchen's case. The collective wisdom of paying almost 20 million combined for Tommy Hunter and David Robertson for seasons in their late 30's can also be debated and stand as reasons why financial flexibility might be paramount in future years, especially with the strugle to graduate many of our more recent high level prospects into the cheap contributors that dynasties thrive on. Regardless, with these 6 contracts being responsible for almost 50% of our 172 million dollar payroll, it's really not at all that implausible that all 6 provide poor return on investment in '19 and with all but Hunter also under contract in '20. Now is that likely? Of course not, logic and history tell us that some of these deals will end up looking better than they do today at this time next season, some will look worse but getting or conversely not getting daily productiion out of these specific players is going to tell the story of the next era of Phillies' baseball. At the very least they will need to be functional pieces. As much as the heroics of Nola, Harper, Dominguez and the rest of the young guns will electrify us, it will be these key veterans who end up deciding this team's ceiling.

I believe rebound seasons from Odubel Herrera and Cesar Hernandez are certainly likely if not probable and what they bring to the lineup will go a long way into deciding the fate of the 2019 Phillies and maybe clubs in years to come depending on our team's future plans for them. I've already rambled enough so I'll get right into the meat of why I think this is a bad deal for us. Harper has been a below average defender and a streaky hitter, 3 of the last 5 seasons he's had a War of 1.3 or below. Of course the other two seasons he's combined for just under 15 War, of course this includes his incredible 10 win 2015 season which to this point has to be considered an outlier even to the most ardent supporters of this deal. Even I as a dectractor admit that he is certainly capable of repeating that production in his prime and that type of potential has an opportunity cost, In this case I just veiw it as too rich. He hasn't been a plus defender for 3 straight seasons back to 2015, the only season he's been a plus defender besides his rookie season in '12. 4 of the last 6 seasons he's had a negative Rdrs, I know the validity of defensive metrics can be debated, so do with that information what you please. Offensively, outside of his injury plagued 2014 season in which he missed 60 games, he's been a consistant 3.5 - 4.5 Owar player, even in the other season he missed over 50 games, 2017. The lone exceptions to that were 2016, when ironically I was working in DC tending bar and watched him daily, which is the only non-injury season he fell short of that range when he slumped to .243/.373/441 and 2015 where he destroyed baseballs to the clip of .330/.460/.649.

I think Harper's 2016 level of production is the relative floor for his prime seasons, with his 2015 level of production being his tantalizing ceiling. That is a good player to have and he will assuredly be a net positive, the question for me is at what cost? Of course his probable performance barring injury falls in between the extremes of his historic 2015 season and his anemic 2016 campaign. For me, a guy who isn't a plus defender or a threat to steal bases, who has a wildly inconsistant history of performance that consists of season long abberations liable to trend in either direction, is not somebody you tie up 15% of your total player payroll in with a contract that stretches until he's going on 40 years old. Long time lurker who just finally took the registration plunge because I was so energized by the energy surrounding this team. Be kind when you tell me how stupid and wrong I am.