Alex, Jay and I assembled our top 20 lists in the week leading up to the trade deadline. We then decided to wait until after the trade deadline in case any of our picks got traded. Well, no one got traded, so we went through and compiled the rankings and each wrote up a few thoughts on the top 10.
1 Alec Bohm, 3B
Jay - 1, Alex - 1, Cormican - 1
Alex Carr - Bohm just keeps getting better. His power is trending upward, and his comfortability at the corner is much improved. Easy choice here.
Cormican - Was anyone expecting anything different? At the plate, I think you could see something similar to Rhys Hoskins at Bohm’s peak (maybe with a higher Average, but I don’t expect a batting title or anything). Defensively he won’t be great, but after the last 3+ years, he won’t be anything out of the ordinary.
Jay - We are looking at a player who is likely to stick at 3B in the short-term, hit 30+ homers and have a respectable batting average (.275+) at his peak. It’s my bold prediction that he will be the starting third baseman for the Phillies on Opening Day 2020.
2 Spencer Howard, RHP
Jay - 2, Alex - 2, Cormican - 2
Alex Carr - This kid has the stuff. Electric fastball, nasty secondaries, dominant presence, all of it. Top of the rotation potential for sure.
Cormican - If not for his time off to shoulder injury, I might have Howard at #1. The ceiling is exciting, but the present would already probably be the second best starter on the big club.
Jay - The Spencer Howard hype-train should probably be fuller than it actually is. We haven’t had a starting pitching prospect of this caliber on the cusp of making his MLB debut since...Aaron Nola. Yes, you should be that excited for all the reasons Alex and Cormican stated above.
3 Adam Haseley, OF
Jay - 3, Alex - 3, Cormican - 5
Alex Carr - Seeing Adam succeed at the Major League level is a thrill. He has the best bat-to-ball skills in the system, and, despite the MLB new-ness, hardly struck out in the minors this, or any, year.
Cormican - The contact skills can make him a starter with a pretty high average. I think the walks will come and part of the reason I ranked him lower than Jay and Alex is that I worry about the power for a guy likely destined for a corner. That said, he shown good pop his first couple weeks in the Majors.
Jay - After seeing him play regularly for a few weeks in the MLB after not struggling at AAA has boosted my evaluation on just what we might have in Haseley. He’s looked great in centerfield and isn’t overmatched at the plate. Once he starts getting comfortable, I think we talk about him as the CF of the future.
4 Bryson Stott, SS
Jay - 4, Alex - 4, Cormican - 4
Alex Carr - Stott has gotten off to a slow start in Williamsport, but clearly has the bat of a top-tier contact hitter. Defense at short has especially surprised me.
Cormican - Stott’s off to a slow start in NYPL. but not terribly different from Bohm’s time in the NYPL last year. It remains to be see if Stott can stay at Short, but his bat would profile fine at 3rd.
Jay - Shiny new toy! No, but for real the kid dropped to us in the draft for reasons I don’t even care about anymore. His swing and toolkit are swoon-worthy and if he can progress and/or stick at shortstop? Hoooboy would I like a future infield of Bohm, Stott, Kingery and Hoskins.
5 Adonis Medina, RHP
Jay - 6, Alex - 6, Cormican - 3
Alex Carr - Medina has the arsenal of a front-end starter, but the command is concerning. His 6.4 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 in 2019 are blaring warning signs.
Cormican - I’m the high guy on Medina. The stuff is still there but, as Alex notes, the command is not. I’m optimistic that the command will come and he’ll be fine as a #3 starter in 2020 or 2021.
Jay - This really isn’t a slight to Medina, who I think still has top of the rotation upside if he can find his command as he advanced through the higher levels of the minor leagues. My worry is that he follows up this year with another similar to it in 2020 and my expectations dip to “back of the rotation”. Next season will be a huge year for projecting Medina.
6 Luis Garcia, SS
Jay - 5, Alex - 5, Cormican - 7
Alex Carr - This kid has it all. The underwhelming numbers in Lakewood are of no concern, as they’re tinkering with his swing. Raw, palpable talent is hard to come by, but Garcia has it in spades.
Cormican - The contact skills are there, the defense is there, but scouting reports are that there’s very little in the way of solid, hard contact. A second season in Lakewood may let his strength catch up to his level, but I’m getting some vague Carlos Tocci vibes, which led me to dropping him a few spots.
Jay - Phillies love to be aggressive with their placement of their top prospects. Garcia hasn’t quite gotten the handle of A-ball pitching. You do have to rationalize that he is still only 18 years old with fantastic tools competing against guys who are 3-4 older than he is. Lets all be patient with the kid.
7 Francisco Morales, RHP
Jay - 7, Alex - 8, Cormican - 8
Alex Carr - Ridiculously good fastball/slider combo, changeup is a work in progress. Morales simply needs to hone in on the command, which has improved this year.
Cormican - There’s some wild inconsistency and a not insignificant bullpen risk (though it’s a fantastic bullpen profile), but there’s also mid-rotation potential (if you’re glass is half full on his command, maybe #2 starter, I’m not that bullish right now).
Jay - I...might be that bullish? Inconsistency be damned, he rivals Howard with some of the best stuff in the system. As Alex mentioned, the fastball/slider is fun to watch.
8 Mickey Moniak, OF
Jay - 8, Alex - 7, Cormican - 9
Alex Carr - Moniak continues to improve his game rapidly, one aspect at a time. This year alone, he’s improved his walk rate, decreased his strikeout rate, and started flashing more pop — and he’s only 21 years-old.
Cormican - I like Moniak, but I worry about his profile. He needs to keep improving his K and Walk rates and for his profile to really work he needs to hit about 20 points higher or hit for plus power. He’ll look like a 4th OF potentially until he figures that out.
Jay - It’s been a bit of a renaissance season for Moniak who has started showing promise again for the first time since his rookie season in the GCL. Power is up and his walk-rate has nearly doubled from last season. The strikeouts are also up and he’ll need to fix that if he ever expects to succeed at the higher levels. All is not bad on the Moniak front.
9 Enyel De Los Santos, RHP
Jay - 9, Alex - 9, Cormican - 10
Alex Carr - EDLS profiles more as a bullpen arm for me — he’s had a tough year in the Minors. Still boasting solid stuff, though.
Cormican - I think EDLS is a #4 Starter or bullpen arm. His stuff isn’t overpowering so he needs to consistently locate and mix his pitches better to be effective in either role.
Jay - I still have hope for backend starter, but I think Enyel could absolutely kill it in a defined bullpen role. He needs better control and to work on an effective third pitch to succeed.
10 Rafael Marchan, C
Jay - 12, Alex - 13, Cormican - 6
Alex Carr - Marchan has an absolutely lethal swing, which is rare in a catcher. Seems to be handling his position well, too. I’m not as high on him as Cormican, but this kid sure knows how to hit. If he can carry his bat through to Clearwater — watch out.
Cormican - I am a big Marchan fan and I should apologize to him for that since my previous big prospect crushes have all flamed out pretty badly. Marchan is different though. He’s a potential plus defender and hitter with insane contact skills. I think power will come, not huge power, but enough to keep pitchers honest (maybe 10-15 homers a year). To an extent he’s a lot like Willians Astudillo as a hitter and you’re going to have to live with wild BABIP swings that aren’t offset by taking walks.
Jay - With how Cormican speaks of him now I feel like I should have ranked him a bit higher! Anyway, he looks to carry a special hit tool which does have significant value for a defensively capable catching prospect. He might be the most interesting catching prospect in the system which is saying something considering that is the one area the Phillies have significant depth.
11 Simon Muzziotti, OF (Jay - 10, Alex - 11, Cormican - 14)
12 Damon Jones, LHP (Jay - 13, Alex - 14, Cormican - 11)
13 JoJo Romero, LHP (Jay - 11, Alex - N/A, Cormican - 15)
14 Logan O’Hoppe, C (Jay - 20, Alex - 10, Cormican - 12)
15 Deivy Grullon, C (Jay - 14, Alex - N/A, Cormican - 13)
16 Jamari Baylor, SS (Jay - 16, Alex - 18, Cormican - 17)
17 Rodolfo Duran, C (Jay - 15, Alex - N/A, Cormican - 20)
18 Mauricio Llovera, RHP (Jay - 18, Alex - N/A, Cormican - 16)
19 Erik Miller, LHP (Jay - N/A, Alex - 17, Cormican - 18)
20 Starlyn Castillo, RHP (Jay - 19, Alex - N/A, Cormican - 19)
Players ranked 11-20 represent a broad range from new draft picks to recent IFA players to guys who seem like they’ve been around for an eternity (Hi, Deivy). Grullon will almost certainly get some MLB service time this fall, but everyone else is at least a year away from Philly. We’ll write more about them this winter, provided they’re all still here.
There are some great honorable mention names, as well that I expect to see move up the list this offseason, with a few having potential to be top 10 rankees in the next year.
Honorable Mentions: Jonathan Guzman, SS; Kyle Glogoski, RHP; Juan Aparicio, C; Connor Seabold, RHP; Johan Rojas, OF