FanPost

A Dombrowski New Year

The Snell trade has me thinking about the next big trade, and Dombrowski is not a guy to shrink from a big trade. He is in Philly to win, and to win soon. And why not? The Phils have a good core in the rotation, and Bryce Harper didn't sign to watch the playoffs every season eating popcorn with Trout on a sofa somewhere.

Dombrowski knows he needs to begin by adding a quality middle infielder (Didi?) and a catcher (JT?), but he has to do it within whatever budget he is given. So he targets a cheap all-star middle infielder: Gleyber Torres. Now you laugh, "Why on earth would the Yankees consider giving up Torres with four years of control? Brian Cashman (Yankee GM) would be lucky to get out of NY alive." Except that Cashman also has a budget and needs pitching more than hitting. "Ok," you say, "but the Phils can't be dealing their own better pitchers if they're trying to win now." "Exactly," I reply, "and that is why we need a three-way."

As a rule I hate three-way proposals. They always sound great at first, but then they hardly ever really work out and somebody walks away unhappy. But getting back to baseball, I’ll use Baseball Trade Values here even though I disagree with some of their valuations because I want a neutral source when trying to balance the needs of three distinct teams. Here is what Dombrowski comes up with so that the Phils can win now within budget (I’ll put BBTV’s trade valuation in parentheses so you can see the breakdown):

Phils receive: Gleyber Torres (73) and young starter/reliever Mike King (2.8) from the Yankees, and catcher Tucker Barnhart (2.4) from the Reds.

Yankees receive: Luis Castillo (114.8) and overpaid outfielder Castellanos (-17.6) and five million in cash to help offset Castellanos’ salary from the Reds.

Reds receive serious salary relief and the following players: Abel (17.3), Howard (39.6), and Stott (21.6) from the Phillies. Andujar (1.2), Schmidt (22.3), and Green (2.6) from NYY.

According to BBTV, all teams are even. So why would each team do this trade?

The Phillies receive Gleyber! to pair with Segura in the middle of the diamond, Bohm manning 3b. Torres just turned 24 and isn’t even arb eligible until 2022. .871 OPS and 38 HR in 2019. He didn't put up the HR numbers in 2020, with his barrel percentage dropping, yet his hard hit % increased, BB% increased, K% decreased, EV and xwOBA did not drop much, so that the underlying suggests it was just a down streak in a weird season. At such a young age Gleyber's best years probably lie ahead. Barnhart is a quality starting catcher who is not quite thirty, salary 4.187M with a team option for 2022, who just won his second gold glove. Good framer, average pop time, good transfer. I think BBTV undervalues him; good catching is tough to find, especially at such a low salary. Mike King is a 25-yo. hurler not even arb eligible until 2023 who is great at inducing ground balls and whose poor numbers last season belie his effectiveness. Even pitching as a rookie in the hitters’ park that is the new Yankee Stadium he limited batters to .233/.320/.430 through the first fifty pitches of any appearance. Then he got lit up later. Quite simply, he isn’t ready to be a starting pitcher in mlb unless he comes up with another pitch or improves one, but he is very effective the first time through an order (.194/.306/.419). As a multi-inning reliever, he would be very valuable to the Phils and might well outperform what Spencer Howard would have given the team this season, although longer term Howard is the more valuable player because he is much more likely to become a quality starter. Phils need to give up Howard in the spirit of TINSTAPP (There Is No Such Thing As a Pitching Prospect). This is a win-now trade that leaves Dombrowski with financial room to improve the club further going into the season.

JT remains an option, in which case Barnhart either becomes the overqualified backup or maybe gets dealt to one of the many teams that would covet him. Or else if JT is too expensive that money can now be spent on more pitching or other areas that would help the Phils win now.

Reds get what they want, and maybe more. In actuality I think BBTV gives them too much, and probably the Yankees get a bit too little. The Reds cut salary, saving more than 13M/year by replacing Castellanos with Andujar, the former ROY-runner-up who played more than half his games in the outfield this winter because he will not push Urshela off third base in NY. I think BBTV particularly undervalues Andujar, who is healthy now and was really starting to get his stroke back last season when Stanton got healthy and took Andujar’s place on the mlb roster. And of course the Reds save whatever they would have to pay Castillo after arbitration this season. They add four very fine prospects in Abel, Howard, Stott, and Schmidt. Ryder Green is a promising young outfielder with a very strong arm that projects as a future RF.

Yankees get Luis Castillo. That’s their motivation. I'm not sure whether Cashman has the guts to make such a bold move, but this is very much a win-now move for them just as it is for the Phillies. A front pair of Cole and Castillo with the prospect of maybe getting Severino back finally gives them the pitching to win. Losing Gleyber hurts a lot, but not as much as Castillo helps. They do give up Andujar; but he won’t play every day in NY with Urshela at third and Frazier expected to start in LF and Stanton at dh. They have to give up King, but they can sign another reliever in FA. They have to absorb losses to their farm system of Schmidt and Green, but you have to give to get. And finally they have to take Castellanos, who could realistically be seen as simply an older, much more expensive Andujar. But he could help the Yankees with how often Judge, Stanton, and Hicks have been hurt and Frazier being relatively unproven. Think of his inflated salary as part of the price of getting Luis Castillo, and just suck it up, NY. Cashman probably whines, with justification, that he is giving up too much and demands Cincy pay more of Castellanos’ salary. And, honestly, if I were GM for Cincy, I’d agree to pay a bit more.

Yanks would have work to do to fill the hole at short, but there are options out there and NY always can spend if ownership is willing to do it. Also, if their plan is to reset their CBT this season (rumor is that is one of their goals), then they could tread water with a cheap ss signing now and then either trade for a better one at the deadline or go with the big splash of Lindor or Story next winter. Similarly there are options to replace King. And there are plenty of teams who would love Castellanos if the Yanks really don’t want him and/or prioritize the lower salary; it’s just that the Yanks would probably have to pay some of their own money on top of what Cincy pays or else add talent to get a team to take the contract. Nonetheless, if I were GM of NY, I’d seriously consider this trade because I can address all of the problems it causes, but I cannot go get another guy comparable to Castillo.

So, there it is. Three contented GMs? Phils bound for the postseason this year? You tell me.