FanPost

My Phillies 2021-2022 off season plan



SP1: Wheeler $23.6
SP2: Nola $11.25
SP3: Gibson $9.3
SP4: Suarez $0.5635
SP5: Gray $10
RP: Domiguez $0.8
RP: Alvarado $1.75
RP: Coonrod $0.5635
RP: Brogdon $0.5635
RP: Neris $3.0
RP: Falter $0.5635
RP: Bassitt $6.5
CP: Kimbrel $8.0
C: Realmuto $23.1
1B: Bohm $0.5635
2B: Segura $14
SS: Gregorious $14
3B: Bryant $25
LF: Castellanos $20
CF: Buxton $7.5
RF: Harper $25.385
Bench: Torreyes $1.0
Bench: Marchan $0.5635
Bench: Williams $0.5635
Bench: Miller $3.0

Bench: Vierling $0.5635

Buyouts: $5.5

$217.193

Trade:

MIN sends CF Buxton to PHI for 1B Hoskins, OF Ortiz (AA), SS Garcia (A)

CHW sends CP Kimbrel, $8.0 to PHI for SP Eflin, C O’Hoppe (AAA)

OAK sends RP Bassitt, $2.0 to PHI for RP E.Miller (A+), SP Medina (AAA)

FA Signing:

3B/OF Bryant 5yr/ $125 w/ opt out after 2yrs.

OF Castellanos 4yr/ $80 w/ opt out after 2yrs.

SP J.Gray 4yr/ $40

RP Neris 1 yr/ $3.0

UT Miller 1yr/ $3.0

IN Torreyes 1yr/ $1.0

Summary:

The trades first. Buxton’s value could only go down after this offseason. It could improve by the next trade deadline if he stays healthy and plays to his potential but that is a gamble for the Twins. His salary should be roughly the same as Hoskins and both only have one year of control left, but Minnesota does this for the potential Ortiz and Garcia have. I don’t see a top prospect here because of Buxton’s injury history and one year of control.

Chicago wants to trade Kimbrel and the Phillies need a closer, so there is a natural fit. Again, both Eflin and Kimbrel have one year left of control. (CHW has stated their interest in picking up Kimbrel’s $16M option then trading him) For the white sox they are picking up Eflin who has #3 starter upside and youth. I thought a one for one deal could work, but if CHW needs more O’Hoppe has been on the radar this past year and CHW don't have really any catching prospects. The money is needed to PHI to do the deal.

Oakland probably doesn’t want to pay a relief pitcher $8.5M, which is what Bassitt is expected to get through his last year of arb, and do this deal for two pitching prospects with promise. They always seem to turn something out of nothing with pitchers. Miller and Medina should fit that bill.

I should have probably prefaced the trades with not being married to the prospects of these deals, I just didn’t want to include Abel, Stott, Painter, or Crouse.

Next the free agent deals. Bryant will command, from what I was reading, a mid-20s per yr deal and given his age I thought a 5yr or a 4yr with a player option. Oh yeah, I almost forgot he already had some friends on this team (MV3).

Castellanos has history with Dombrowski and $20M is a raise from his $17M salary. I also felt 4 yrs would probably be too much for competing teams given his age.

(Given how player opt outs also get deals done, this would be attractive to both Bryant and Castellanos. I figured the team’s best window to win would be the next two years.)

Jon Gray has, IMO, #3 or #4 potential, and the 4yr/ $10 per yr is an overpay. Again, I believe the Phillies must overpay to actually get people here. The money is probably somewhat massageable.

The last 3 FA signings are returnees. Neris is serviceable in the 6th or 7th innings and $3M seems fair, maybe that could go up a little. Girardi loves Torreyes. If he did what he did last year, that’s a win. Brad Miller hit 20 HRs. Not bad for a part timer who became a full timer. For me, this is about quality depth and keeping some chemistry going.

The starting staff, with a better showing from Nola and Gibson, should be decent. Wheeler having another year like 2021 is probably not going to happen, and I think his worst enemy will be injury. He pitched a lot of innings last year. Hopefully, Suarez and Gray can round out the rotation with sub 4.00 ERA pitching.

The lineup looks super intimidating, when healthy. Adding Buxton, Bryant, and Castellanos, in place of Herrera, Hoskins and McCutchen would be a massive improvement. Again, health would be their worst enemy. They would really be betting on Buxton playing a whole year with playoffs. I know seeing Didi at SS is disheartening after this past year, but he has zero trade value and he can only be better next year(Right?!?). Don’t worry Stott is coming. The bench and bullpen are filled out with guys still under control and have all played well last year. The lineup possibilities are exciting and should provide the fireworks.

I know there was a $195M limit on the spending. I really tried to stick to that, but with that restriction the team really wasn’t going to be very different or better. I do not think Dombrowski came here to do something Klentak could have continued. If ownership has a hard cap with the luxury tax, then why bring in Dombrowski? The team doesn’t have the prospects to place into the roster, and they are gambling with Bohm as it is, so to win now, they need to go past the threshold. It’s time to spend money and be a little stupid about it.