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2021 Over/Under/Never final results

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The Phillies may have lost the division, but at least someone won over/under/never.

MLB: Chicago Cubs at Philadelphia Phillies
Andrew Knapp celebrates winning the award for lowest fWAR on the Phillies this season.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Back in March, I wrote up 30 questions for the 2021 Over/Under/Never game. Several of you left your answers in the comments section, which you can go back to check here.

For those of you that played, here are the answers you’ve been waiting for. And for those of you that didn’t, I think this still serves as a fun look back on the Phillies’ 2021 season. (Okay, maybe not a fun look back.) You can also read my mid-season check-in on the results here.

For those just joining us, here’s a brief review of the rules:

  • Players chose “over” if they thought the event in question would take place after the suggested date OR that the total number would be higher than the one suggested.
  • Players chose “under” if they thought the event in question would take place before the suggested date OR that the total number would be lower than the one suggested.
  • Players chose “never” if they thought the event in question would never happen.

And here’s the final answer key. Tally up your answers and leave a comment telling me what you got. We’re using the honor system here, folks!

2021 Over/Under/Never Results

Calendar Events Numerical Events Phillies Team Leaders Former Phillies Around The League Which Will Happen First? Total Shots in the Dark Bonus
Calendar Events Numerical Events Phillies Team Leaders Former Phillies Around The League Which Will Happen First? Total Shots in the Dark Bonus
1a. Under 1 Under 1 Over 1 Under 1 Romero 1 1,515,888 1 Andrew Knapp
1b. Over 2 Under 2 Under 2 Under 2 Neris 2 82-80
2 Over 3 Under 3 Under 3 Under 3 Nola 3 Three
3 Under 4 Over 4 Under
4 Over 5 Under 5 Over
5 Over
6 Under
7 Under
8 never
9 under
10 over

And in more detail, here were all the questions:

The Calendar Events

1. a. First blown save by Héctor Neris - 04/22 (correct answer: under) b. First blown save by Archie Bradley - 04/22 (over)

2. 100th career home run for Rhys Hoskins (needs 9) - 05/17 (over)

3. 1000th career strikeout for Aaron Nola (needs 78) - 06/03 (under)

4. Bryce Harper’s 50th walk of the season (49 BB in 58 games last year) - 06/11 (over)

5. Phillies trade for a reliever - 06/17 (over)

6. First start by Spencer Howard - 06/28 (under)

7. Vince Velasquez has a great start (min. GSv2 of 70, or at the discretion of The Good Phight staff) - 07/12 (under)

  • On June 29 against the Marlins, Velasquez pitched 7 innings and striking out 7. He allowed no runs or walks and only 2 hits. His game score (version 2) that day was 85.

8. J.T. Realmuto’s 20th runner thrown out on the bases - 07/19 (never)

9. A start by a pitcher other than Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Moore, Anderson, Velasquez, Howard, Suarez, or Medina (not including bullpen games) - 08/09 (under)

  • Kyle Gibson started his first game for the Phillies on August 1.

10. The Phillies are mathematically eliminated from NL East contention (season ends on Oct. 3rd) - 09/27 (over)

  • The Braves officially eliminated the Phillies on September 30, 2021.

Numerical Events

1. 29.5 home runs for Alec Bohm (as predicted by Archie Bradley) (under)

  • LOL, nope!

2. 2.5 Phillies in the All-Star Game (under)

  • It’s hard to believe Bryce Harper wasn’t an All-Star, but he wasn’t. Just Wheeler and Realmuto.

3. 9.5 wins against the Marlins (the Phillies are 12-17 against the Marlins over the past two years) (under)

  • The Phillies lost the final series of the season in Miami to fall to 9-10 against the Marlins this year. At least it’s better than in previous seasons.

4. 3.5 Positions played by Scott Kingery (over)

  • Kingery played second, third, and all three outfield positions in his time with the big league club this season. The real question now is if he’ll ever play another big league position again.

5. 100.5 games led-off by Andrew McCutchen (under)

  • Cutch moved down in the order after struggling to start the season, and he never reclaimed the lead-off spot despite having a significantly better OBP than some of the guys that did hit lead-off.

Phillies Team Leaders

This category is all about the number; it doesn’t matter who the team leader will be. I.e. If you think the Phillies team leader will have more than 34.5 HR, choose over.

1. 34.5 home runs (over)

  • Bryce Harper hit 35 taters this year. Rhys Hoskins might have too if he didn’t get hurt.

2. 3.00 ERA (min. 120 IP) (under)

  • Zack Wheeler! (And almost Ranger Suárez too!)

3. 14.5 stolen bases (under)

  • Harper and Realmuto both finished with 13.

4. 20.5 saves (under)

  • Not even close. 12 saves for Neris and 10 for Ian Kennedy.

5. 4.5 fWAR (over)

  • Wheeler, Harper, and Nola all surpassed 4.5 fWAR, and Realmuto was extremely close (he finished at 4.4).

Former Phillies Around the League

1. 9.5 starts by Cole Hamels (under)

  • Nope :(

2. 7.5 HR allowed by Brandon Workman (under)

  • Workman allowed 4 home runs through the first half of the season and was DFA’d by the Red Sox at the end of July.

3. 2.5 fWAR by Cesar Hernandez (under)

  • He got to 2.2, so he was close.

Which Will Happen First?

1. Jojo Romero is called up OR Scott Kingery is called up? (Romero)

  • Romero was called up on April 11, and Kingery got the call ten days later.

2. José Alvarado gets a save OR Hector Neris gets a save? (Neris)

  • Neris recorded his first save on April 4, just one day before Alvarado recorded his.

3. Aaron Nola pitches a complete game OR Zach Eflin pitches a complete game? (Nola)

  • Aaron Nola pitched a complete game gem against the Cardinals on April 18. Zach Eflin did not manage to accomplish the feat this season.

Total Shots in the Dark

1. Total attendance at Citizens Bank Park to the nearest thousand (1,000,000 points to whoever guesses this one)

2. Phillies win-loss record

  • 82-80.

3. How many trades does Dave Dombrowski make this season?

  • By my count, it was three: the Braeden Ogle trade, the Freddy Galvis trade, and the Kyle Gibson/Ian Kennedy trade. Anything I forgot?

Final Bonus Question

1. Which Phillies player will have the lowest fWAR in 2021? (No minimum IP or PA) In 2020, it was Heath Hembree (-0.8 fWAR) and in 2019 it was Nick Williams (-0.9 fWAR).

  • Andrew Knapp’s -1.1 fWAR was one of the worst in baseball.

Thanks for playing, everyone! I’ll update the post to congratulate the winner once the points are all tallied up.