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RichBaseballGuy's Phillies Offseason Plan


Before I begin this major crisis that will probably be solved by fans in an hour or maybe less, I wanted to give a shout out to Ethan Witte. He was the one that inspired this idea and is imploring fans like us to make articles like these. He has made ground rules for the perfect offseason, so let's go over them.

  • Budget: $195 mil. This means we have to stay under the luxury tax by $15 mil, so if you agree with this post, too bad. This is a strict budget, too, so I can't pay for $150k by myself like in Moneyball
  • Keep this as realistic as possible. Don't trade Segura for Gavin Lux was the example given

So, with that taken care of, let's begin.

Arbitration

We are using the MLBTR projected salaries, so if you think for some reason these numbers are wrong, fight me.

  • Odubel Herrera – $11.6MM: NONTENDERED. Although Herrera gave us some stability in the center field position, he quite simply is not worth 11.6 mil.
  • Travis Jankowski – $900K: TENDERED. Jankowski can play a few big league games and is cost efficent, so I'm keeping him around
  • Zach Eflin – $6.0MM: TENDERED. This one was easily the hardest one for me. Eflin won't be able to play until May and won't be higher than a #5 starter due to our actually solid rotation, but he's the same price as others relatively close to his skill and we'll actually have a well-built rotation for once, so he's tendered.
  • Andrew Knapp – $1.2MM: NONTENDERED. He's really not needed anymore. Marchan is going to serve as a backup catcher and O'Hoppe is making significant strides in the Arizona Fall League (Go Javelinas) and is going to be the AAA starting catcher. From best (first) backup catcher to worst; I feel bad for him.
  • Jose Alvarado – $1.9MM: TENDERED. Alvarado is a huge piece to the bullpen and is better than most on the market. He's got to recover from last season though, like the rest of the bullpen.
  • Rhys Hoskins – $7.6MM: TENDERED. It's a steep price tag but the end of 2021 proved how crucial Rhys is to this lineup. If he stays healthy, he might have more homers than Bryce by the end of the year.
  • Ronald Torreyes – $1.6MM: TENDERED. Torreyes manned third base better than I expected and Girardi might kill me if I don't keep him, so with Girardi pointing a gun at me I'll welcome Torreyes with open arms.
  • Seranthony Dominguez – $800K: TENDERED. See Jankowski.
  • Roman Quinn – $700K: TENDERED. I'm going to start calling it the Jankowski Effect.

**Options

The Phillies have two club options in this offseason. They are as follows:

  • Andrew McCutchen - $15 million team option ($3 mil buyout): EXERCISED. Cutch is coming off of a bounceback season and easily the best one he's had since his Pittsburgh days. He is reaching his twilight years as a player, however.
  • Odubel Herrera - $11.5 million team option ($2.5 mil buyout, can be offered arbitration but we declined): UNEXERCISED. Like I said before, Herrera is not worth $11.5 mil. I'd rather have a low-cost Haseley or Moniak instead of a high-cost Herrera.
  • ** IGNORE THIS, THEY DECLINED BOTH OPTIONS**

Free Agency

This is where the magic begins though. Before we go crazy and sign everyone, we have to remember to be realistic and to stay on budget. To calculate budget, I used the roster/payroll manager on Spotrac. I had to change Eflin's and Odubel's salaries, so the number could be flawed. According to what I have, if we filled a roster, we would be at $146,169,500, giving us $41,830,500 to spend. Of course, because we are tracking active payroll, the $563,500 we gave to pre-arb players would be removed from the payroll. I want to try to do as much in free agency without trades as possible, so here's who I have signed.

  • Nick Castellanos: 2 years/$36 (Screw it, spend more money!!!. He can easily transition to left, there won't be any problems at all...)
  • Michael Wacha: 1 year/$2.75 mil. (Starter while Efin's out who can easily transfer to long relief)
  • Brad Miller: 1 year/$3 mil. (The superlative of utility players)
  • Hector Neris: 1 year/$3 mil. (We need him)

Salary increase: $33,059,500; Payroll: $179,229,000

Trades

The only trade we need to make is for a center fielder. Due to recent speculation I chose:

Phillies Recieve: CF Kevin Kiermaier (luxury tax salary of about $9 mil.)

Rays Recieve: OF Jhailyn Ortiz, SP James McArthur, CF Adam Haseley

I hate to throw Adam Haseley into this trade, but it might be the only way it is accepted. I also included the Dombrowski special of giving away multiple top prospects.

Salary Increase: $8,353,167; Payroll: $187,582,167

Opening Day Roster

Ladies and gentlemen, your... 2022... Philadelphia Phillies

SP1 (Opening Day Starter): Aaron Nola (Tell me he won't start Opening Day; I dare you)

SP2: Zach Wheeler

SP3: Kyle Gibson

SP4: Ranger Suarez

SP5: Michael Wacha

LRP: Adonis Medina

RP: Seranthony Dominguez (Hopefully)

RP: Archie Bradley

RP: Connor Brogdon

RP: Sam Coonrod

RP: Hector Neris

RP: Jose Alvarado

CP: Ian Kennedy

C: J.T Realmuto

1B: Rhys Hoskins

2B: Jean Segura

3B: Alec Bohm

SS: Didi Gregorius

LF: Nick Castellanos

CF: Kevin Kiermaier

RF: Bryce Harper

Bench: Mickey Moniak

Bench: Rafael Marchan

Bench: Brad Miller

Bench: Matt Vierling

Call-up Options/First Two Off: Nick Maton, Luke Williams