FanPost

2021-22 Phillies offseason plan Round 2

After looking at how this offseason has started to unfold I wanted to revisit my projected 26 man roster. This would require a lot of moving parts and a lot of phone calls but everything is plausible from baseballtradevalues.com

Your budget

$195 million – Total 193.1945

Arbitration

Kept

  • Zach Eflin – $6.0MM

  • Jose Alvarado – $1.9MM

  • Rhys Hoskins – $7.6MM

  • Seranthony Dominguez – $800K

  • Andrew McCutchen - ($3 million buyout)

  • Odubel Herrera - ($2.5 million buyout)

FA Target

C – Roberto Perez or Kurt Suzuki MiLB W/ ST invite $700K if make the roster

IF – Freddy Galvis (1/1mil) or Jonathan Vilar (1/2.5Mil)

OF – Kevin Pillar (1/3mil) Seiya Suzuki. (5/55MM)

RP – Lorenzen MiLB W/ ST invite, Rosenthal MiLB W/ ST invite Kela MiLB W/ ST invite, Archie Bradly (1/5 mil), Ian Kennedy monitor, Junis MiLB W/ ST invite, Chatwood MiLB W/ ST invite

SP Jon Gray (3/40MM)

Trades to think about

  • Randal Grichuk for Didi Gregorious, Falter and O’Hoppe for Mitch Haniger,
  • Other possible targets David Price, Aroldis Chapman, Ken Giles

Trades: All have been deemed fair trades by the baseballtradevalues.com algorithm

Royals acquire SP Gibson for LHRP Brentz and IF Mondesi

Rays acquire 1B Hoskins and OF prospect Wilson for SP Glasnow, RHP Honeywell, SP McKay, OF Kiermaier

Athletics acquire RHP Abel and SS Garcia for 3B Matt Chapman

Orioles acquire OF Haseley, OF Muzziotti, 2B Segura for 1b/OF Mancini

Phillies acquire CP Kimbrel for OF Quinn

Dead Money (to start season)

  • Eflin (6 Mil)

  • Scott Kingery (4MM)

  • Tyler Glasnow – ($5.8MM)

  • Andrew McCutchen - ($3 million buyout)

  • Odubel Herrera - ($2.5 million buyout)

26 Man Roster

  • SP1: Wheeler (23.6 MM)
  • SP2: Nola (11.25 MM)
  • SP3: Suarez ($563,500)
  • SP4: Mckay ($563,500)
  • SP5: Honeywell ($563,500)
  • RP: Craig Kimbrell ($14.3MM)
  • RP: Jake Brentz ($563,500)
  • RP: Trevor Rosenthal or Lorenzen ($3MM)
  • RP: Archie Bradly ($5.8MM)
  • RP: Connor Brogdon ($563,500)
  • RP: Jose Alvarado ($1.9MM)
  • RP: Sam Coonrod ($563,500)
  • RP: Seranthony Dominguez (800K)
  • C: J.T. Realmuto (23MM)
  • 1B: Alec Bohm ($563,500)
  • 2B: Didi Gregorius (14MM)
  • SS: Adalberto Mondesi ($3.2MM)
  • 3B: Matt Chapman (9.5 MM)
  • LF: Seiya Suzuki ($11MM)
  • CF: Kevin Kiermaier (9 MM)
  • RF: Bryce Harper (25 MM)
  • Bench: Kevin Pillar (3mil)
  • Bench: Freddy Galvis (1 Mil)
  • Bench: Roberto Perez ($700K)
  • Bench: Trey Mancini ($7.9MM)
  • Bench: Nick Maton/ Mickey Moniak ($563,500)


You could mix and match Mondesi, Didi, Galvis and Maton around the infield and Stott when he comes up. It would really be nice if by some miracle Kingery turns things around and is a RH option to balance things out. Regardless there is a nice defensive upgrade up the middle and an infusion of speed as well. The corners are much improved defensively and you hope that Kevin Long helps Bohm develop. No matter what, his future is not at 3rd. I think in the small sample he showed that he is Avg to above average at 1st and Chapman is a platinum glove candidate at third. They also can bring more consistency to the lineup. Hoskins can carry a team at time, but his big leg kick can lead to timing issues which is why from month to month he is so inconsistent. Hoskins is also very close to getting the injury prone label in my book. I’d rather move him now and shake the team up. I also immediately address his absence in the lineup by acquiring Mancini to provide insurance if Suzuki doesn’t work out, Bohm can’t handle 1st or the DH comes to the NL. The Phillies fix their issues in not developing OF prospects by getting the 28 yr old Suzuki. If it takes time for him to adjust to the MLB you do get to give Moniak time in a platoon situation. You’d have Suzuki R and Moniak L with Pilar R and KK L. Both spots are dramatically improved defensively. Right away the team would go from the 29th or 30th defense to a top 10 possibly top 5 defense. That improves the rotation and bullpen who were victims of having to get 4 and 5 outs per inning.

The one move I wanted to make but couldn’t was signing Jon Gray. It put me over budget. I know I received criticism before for relaying on young starters and there is a parallel to the 4/5 spot from last year. But I would still rather have a young pitcher with upside and give them a chance in April and May vs getting a Moore or Velasquez. Still I think the defensive upgrades will help Nola return to form specifically and help the development of Suarez, Mckay, and Honeywell (or Crouse/Junis if they make the rotation).

My bullpen moves I wanted to make (KC Staumont, TB Kittridge) couldn’t happen without blowing through the thin farm system, and I had to give up Able and Muzzotti and Wilson in this scenario. I couldn’t afford, with a long-term plan, to give up more. I sense the phillies will make a move for a CP whether that is a FA or a trade remains to be seen, but Kimbrel will be made available and DD was in talks last year. That sets everyone else in a role, which is what the phillies want with their pen. I did love the idea of Eflin coming back and being used in the pen, that would be contingent on McKay, Honeywell, or Crouse taking hold of the 4/5 spots while he’s out.

The big pay off though is in 2023. In 23 you’d have Glassnow joining the rotation. You would go Wheeler, Glassnow, Nola, Suarez, and whoever stepped up for that last rotation spot in 2022. You’d have Kimbrell ($14.3MM), Gregorius (14MM), Mancini ($7.9MM), Kiermaier (9 MM), Bradly ($5.8MM), Rosenthal or Lorenzen (3MM) coming off the books with the only CF as a real position that would need to be address with Buxton and Bellinger becoming FA. You’d have another year that you are developing the farm system correctly and on your way to a sustainable contender.