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2021 Phillies Over/Under/Never

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It’s the ultimate Philadelphia Phillies-based guessing game!

MLB: Toronto Blue Jays at Philadelphia Phillies
J.T. Realmuto congratulates Andrew McCutchen on winning the 2020 Over/Under/Never competition.
Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports

Over/Under/Never is back! Following the formula carefully developed over the years by Phrozen, I’ve put together 30 questions about the Philadelphia Phillies’ 2021 season. Anyone is free to submit their guesses, and at the end of the year I’ll tally up the results and make a post to congratulate the winner. It’s always a fun game, but if you’re unsure about competing, here are some prizes that past winners have received:

  • 2014: A date with Chase Utley
  • 2015: A date with Aaron Harang
  • 2016: The winner got to be the next President of the United States (sorry about that one)
  • 2017: The winner got to be the new manager of the Phillies (again, sorry about that one)
  • 2018: A pizza party
  • 2019: A $1,000,000 contribution to Bryce Harper’s contract in your name
  • 2020: Another date with Aaron Harang

Stay tuned to discover what this year’s prize will be! Here are the rules.

The Rules

  • Leave a comment on this article with your guess. Alternatively, you can DM them to me on Twitter (@morgensternmlb). My guesses are the first comment if you need an example.
  • Submit your guesses by the end of the day on Sunday, April 4th if you’d like to participate in the competition. If any events happen before you post your guesses, you will not receive credit for those events (ex. If Hector Neris blows a save on April 3rd, and you posted your guesses on April 4th, you will not receive a point for that question.)
  • Choose “over” if you think the event in question will take place after the suggested date OR that the total number will be higher than the one suggested.
  • Choose “under” if you think the event in question will take place before the suggested date OR that the total number will be lower than the one suggested.
  • Choose “never” if you think the event in question will never happen.
  • 1 point for each correct answer.
  • You can leave a comment or DM me with any questions about the rules.

The Calendar Events

All dates are off days for simplicity’s sake. However, if schedule changes result in any of the events taking place on the given date, it counts as over. (i.e. If you think Hector Neris will blow a save on 04/22, choose “over.”)

  1. a. First blown save by Hector Neris - 04/22 b. First blown save by Archie Bradley - 04/22
  2. 100th career home run for Rhys Hoskins (needs 9) - 05/17
  3. 1000th career strikeout for Aaron Nola (needs 78) - 06/03
  4. Bryce Harper’s 50th walk of the season (49 BB in 58 games last year) - 06/11
  5. Phillies trade for a reliever - 06/17
  6. First start by Spencer Howard - 06/28
  7. Vince Velasquez has a great start (min. GSv2 of 70, or at the discretion of The Good Phight staff) - 07/12
  8. J.T. Realmuto’s 20th runner thrown out on the bases - 07/19
  9. A start by a pitcher other than Nola, Wheeler, Eflin, Moore, Anderson, Velasquez, Howard, Suarez, or Medina (not including bullpen games) - 08/09
  10. The Phillies are mathematically eliminated from NL East contention (season ends on Oct. 3rd) - 09/27

Numerical Events

  1. 29.5 home runs for Alec Bohm (as predicted by Archie Bradley)
  2. 2.5 Phillies in the All-Star Game
  3. 9.5 wins against the Marlins (the Phillies are 12-17 against the Marlins over the past two years)
  4. 3.5 Positions played by Scott Kingery
  5. 100.5 games led-off by Andrew McCutchen

Update: Never isn’t really applicable in this category, since “under” is still an applicable answer even if the event in question happens zero times. If you’ve already answered “never,” I’ll take that to mean zero.

Phillies Team Leaders

This category is all about the number; it doesn’t matter who the team leader will be. I.e. If you think the Phillies team leader will have more than 34.5 HR, choose over.

  1. 34.5 home runs
  2. 3.00 ERA (min. 120 IP)
  3. 14.5 stolen bases
  4. 20.5 saves
  5. 4.5 fWAR

Update: Again, never isn’t really applicable in this category, since someone will surely lead the team in each of these categories. You can choose never for #2 if you think no one will throw 120 IP, but that’s really it.

Former Phillies Around the League

  1. 9.5 starts by Cole Hamels
  2. 7.5 HR allowed by Brandon Workman
  3. 2.5 fWAR by Cesar Hernandez

Which Will Happen First?

No over/under here, just say which event you think will happen first. You can also say “same time” or “neither will happen” if you want!

  1. Jojo Romero is called up OR Scott Kingery is called up?
  2. José Alvarado gets a save OR Hector Neris gets a save?
  3. Aaron Nola pitches a complete game OR Zach Eflin pitches a complete game?

Total Shots in the Dark

Again, these ones aren’t over/under either, just give your best guess of the exact number.

  1. Total attendance at Citizens Bank Park to the nearest thousand (1,000,000 points to whoever guesses this one)
  2. Phillies win-loss record
  3. How many trades does Dave Dombrowski make this season?

Final Bonus Question

  1. Which Phillies player will have the lowest fWAR in 2021? (No minimum IP or PA) In 2020, it was Heath Hembree (-0.8 fWAR) and in 2019 it was Nick Williams (-0.9 fWAR).

Update: You can also guess a player who is not currently in the organization for this question, as long as you specify his position and handedness (for pitchers).

There you have it! Get working on your guesses, and drop any questions you have in the comments.

Updates

  • For the final bonus question, you can also guess a player who is not currently in the organization for this question, as long as you specify his position and handedness (for pitchers).
  • Never isn’t really an applicable guess in some categories. Make sure you pay close attention to that.
  • Feel free to update your answers anytime before the contest deadline (April 4th at 11:59pm).
  • I apologize to Heath Hembree for calling him Heather Hembree in an earlier version of his post.