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Will Mickey Moniak Be A Star?

With Mickey Moniak finally getting a consistent chance in center field for the Phillies, I think it is worth examining if the former number one pick can be an everyday MLB player. Moniak has a quick swing from the left side and sneaky power however, he has never put up the numbers in the minors that could back any assumption that he would be a legitimate starter in the pros. Let's take a closer look into his production in the minors and predict from there. Moniak has his most plate appearances from ages 19-21 which makes those three years the ideal sample to look at.

2017 Season- Age 19

In 2017, Moniak had 509 plate appearances in Class A ball.236/.284/.341. I get it, those are not the numbers you want to see from your first overall pick playing at one of the lowest levels in minor league baseball but if you take a closer look: Moniak was almost 3 years younger than the average player in his league. Moniak was 19 years old playing in his first real professional baseball action against players who were typically around 21 or 22 years old. It would make sense that a teenager playing against professional athletes who have years of development on him would not have stellar numbers but if he was going to be a star he would hit better than .236 and get on base more than 28% of the time.

2018 Season- Age 20

At this point, with one full season of play under his belt, we are looking for some development for Moniak and I think that is exactly what we got. Moniak moved up a league to High A ball but the harder competition did not mean worse play. Mickey slashed .270/.304/.383 and hit 55 RBI's while still being three years younger than his competition. That is some real progression after just one season and every Phillies fan should be happy to see that. There is just one concern to note, Moniak posted a strike out rate of %21.5 percent while only walking %4.7 of the time. That is understandable for a young hitter but in the future, that is going to have to improve unless he develops some serious power.

2019 Season- Age 21

For the age 21 season, Moniak is now at the point where he is the same age as a draft pick out of college. Your typical 21 year old prospect is supposed to have a little more polish and confidence and I think Moniak had just that as he slashed .252/.303/.439 in double A. Sure the average is down but look at that slugging percentage .439! With the strikeout a walk rate staying around the same seeing that slugging number increase that much is a great sign. Moniak also brought in 67 RBI's, 23 more than he hit two seasons before. Let's not forget that he is still three years younger than the average competition. That is a phenomenal sign for good things to come with the former first round pick.

Predicting The Future

Look, the numbers look good, not great, but good. Everywhere Moniak has played he has been one of the youngest players on the field and while moving up a level a year starting in Low A and getting up to Double-A he still managed to slash better each year while driving in more runs. The best way to guess his impact in the pros is to look at some players that had a similar path as Moniak; Brandon Nimmo and Albert Almora. All guys who were drafted out of high school and all guys who have had different kinds of impact in the majors

Brandon Nimmo v. Mickey Moniak

Nimmo Moniak
19 Low A .248/.372/.406 19 Class A .236/.284/.341
20 Class A .273/.391/.359 20 High A .270/.304/.383
21 High A/ Double A .278/.394/.426 21 Double A .252/.303/.439

Moniak played at a higher level than Nimmo each step of the way until their age 21 seasons. Now Nimmo's season was split between High A and Double-A but there is no denying that he hit better than Moniak did. It is nice to see they slugged around the same but Nimmo got on base much more. Since Nimmo's calling card is getting on base it is hard to make that a knock against Moniak. I would say the upper level of Moniak's ability is comparable to Brandon Nimmo's.

Albert Almora v. Mickey Moniak

Almora Moniak
20 High A/Double A .270/.291/.392 19 Class A .236/.284/.341
21 Double A .272/.327/.400 20 High A .270/.304/.383
22 Triple A .303/.317/.416 21 Double A .252/.303/.439

Albert Almora and Mickey Moniak are very similar players as far as slash lines are concerned. Moniak hit more RBI's in each level but not by much. In Almora's first couple of years in Chicago, he was a solid MLB outfielder and if Moniak can develop into an Almora-type player from 2017-2019 then that would be an absolute win for the Phillies.

So How Good Will Moniak Really Be?

Based on Nimmo and Almora's rise through the minors and comparing it to Moniak's rise, I can see Mickey becoming an everyday MLB centerfielder in the long run. I can see him being very similar to Almora where he can drive in 40-50 RBI's and hit for a decent average while getting a hold of 10 home runs a year. If Mickey Moniak can develop into that kind of player then it was absolutely worth the wait.