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Remembering a time where Aaron Nola wasn't an ace... or not even that good at all (kind of)

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Once upon a time, "Nola Day" was dreaded among Phillies fans alike.

Aaron Nola is an ace.

He's not perfect. But guess what? Unless your name is Jacob deGrom, chances are that you aren't perfect either.

Since 2018, Nola ranks 7th in fWAR (12.0), 10th in ERA (3.08), and 11th in xFIP (3.39), just to name a few things (minimum 350 innings pitched). He's elite at the top of his game, and an undisputed ace. The 7th overall draft pick from 2014, he's been one of the few draft picks over the last few years for the Phillies who really panned out well, and there's a reason why "Nola Day" is something to celebrate. After all, did you not see his dominant shutout against the Cardinals just a few days ago?

Yet, there once was a time where this wasn't the case. Far from it, actually.

Allow me to take you back to a time far back (at least, I try to imagine it being many years ago, in reality, it was just five years back) in the past. When Joe Girardi was Pete Mackanin. When that deadly 1-2-3 punch of Hoskins-Harper-Realmuto was manned by Joseph/a platooning and old Ryan Howard-Bourjos/Goeddel/Altherr-Rupp/sometimes Carlos Ruiz, also old. When the 1-2 of the rotation was Jeremy Hellickson and Jerad Eickhoff.

How did we win 71 games with this team again?

But none of that is what we're gonna be focusing on for the duration of our trip to 2016. Aaron Nola is what, or rather, who, we're gonna be watching closely.

And this time, not for good reasons. Very bad reasons in fact.

Let me take you back to when Aaron Nola was very, very, not good (but not entirely).

It all started on June 11th...

Or, you could argue it started on June 16th, where things got REALLY ugly. But, that's for a bit later.

At this point in the year, the doom and gloom was yet to be seen from Nola. Actually, he was looking like a pretty good candidate to be the team's All-Star representative, before you-know-who would eventually be selected. Up to this point in the year, he had a solid 2.65 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP to boot as well. A really bad start in April (April 16th, to be exact) against the Nationals (5 innings, 7 hits, 3 walks, 7 runs) inflated those numbers quite a bit as well, as without that start included, his numbers go down to a 2.15 ERA and a 0.92 WHIP.

But, as I've been hinting to, it all started going downhill from here.

The line: 3.2 IP, 7 hits, 4 runs (all earned), 1 walk, 3 strikeouts.

The season ERA: 2.98.

Ok, but regardless, it wasn't all bad yet, right? After all, remember that brutal game against the Nationals that I mentioned earlier? Funnily enough, this start came against them as well. But still, every ace has a couple bad games a year, right..?

...And then, doomsday.

June 16th, facing the Blue Jays.

The line: 3 IP, 8 hits, 8 runs (6 earned), 3 walks, 5 strikeouts, 2 HR allowed.

The season ERA: 3.51.

But the Jays were a pretty good team, right? Between Encarnacion and Donaldson and Jose Bautista and... Michael Saunders?

I could detail every start going forward from here, but that would be boring, and would take too long. So to summarize things, I'll ask you this.

On June 5th, Nola allowed no runs across 6 innings to the Brewers. When would be the next time he would go 6 innings again?

The answer: July 18th, vs Miami. 6 IP, 2 hits, 0 runs, 1 walk, 5 Ks.

Before June 11th, Aaron Nola had an ERA of 2.65.

In the following eight starts, his ERA was 9.82, and he had a 2.06 WHIP. That July 18th game was the only time in that span where he would allow less than 3 runs.

On August 3rd, Nola would hit the 15-day IL with a right elbow strain. Two weeks later, he was shut down for the year, and his nightmare season, over.

His final season numbers: A 6-9 record (nice (but also not really)), a 4.78 ERA, a 1.31 WHIP, and a 9.41 H/9.

In other words, his 2016 season was just all-around awful.

Except... it wasn't really that awful.

How does a 9.81 K/9 vs. a 2.35 BB/9 sound? Or allowing just 10 home runs in 111 innings pitched? Or an xSLG of .355? How about an xERA of 3.45 and xwOBA of .283 sound (an average wOBA is considered .320, for some context)? Or being in the...
-82nd percentile in Avg Exit Velocity
-73rd percentile in Hard Hit%
-78th percentile in xwOBA and xERA
-89th percentile in Barrel%
If any of that sounded good to you, congratulations! All of those were numbers that Aaron Nola had in 2016!

It's hard to blame a bad season on luck. Even if the numbers really do support it, there obviously still was something that must've went wrong to give him a 9.82 ERA in his last 8 starts. Or to give up 116 hits in 111 innings. Maybe he just lost the feel of his stuff. Maybe he was trapped in his mind, stuck in negative thoughts, leading to loss-after-loss-after-loss. But it's clear even that even in the midst of everything that went wrong in 2016, there was still a lot to be hopeful about. A lot to bank on. A lot to believe in with the young pitcher.

And luckily, this story has a happy ending.

There's no sad endings here. No reflections on how Nola would join a seemingly endless group of Phillies prospects that didn't turn out. No wondering of "what could've been" or "what should've been."

Although he had a rough start to 2017 (5.06 ERA across April and May), he brought it back with a solid June, and then a dominant month of July, ultimately finishing the year with a 3.54 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, and a 9.86 K/9 vs. a 2.63 BB/9. And then came 2018.

We know just how special that year was.

2019 was a bit of a struggle for Nola, and he would walk the most batters he had in a season, posting a 3.56 BB/9, which stands out to be the only season he has ever had a BB/9 in the 3s. Even then, he still had a 10.20 K/9.

In 2020, despite a clunky finish, Nola still rebounded for a strong season, finishing with a 3.28 ERA in the shortened season, placing 7th in the Cy Young voting.

And this year, he's been looking pretty solid too. A clunky start against the Mets on the 13th would quickly be followed by his first career complete game shutout. That is, unless you want to count one last year against the Marlins, but I don't really think the 7-inning games should count the same, in those regards.

There's a ton to look forward to as Nola is in his prime years. He was one of the key pieces seen in turning the team around out of the rebuild, and now he'll be leading the rotation, alongside the two Zacks (spelled differently, because of course they would be), as this team looks to bring themselves into some October baseball action soon.

Who's to say what Nola's career will look like in the future. Maybe he'll add another All-Star Game appearance to his resume, or another appearance as a Cy Young finalist. Maybe he'll win a Cy Young outright. He might get to prove himself as an established ace with some playoff appearances, or maybe he'll even bring a title back to Philadelphia. Regardless of what Nola brings in the future, he'll be someone special to watch every 5 days.