Fangraphs gave us their list the other day of the Phillies’ top prospects. That list ran deep, with 41 names on the list. The scouting reports were there and it was fascinating to see outside opinions about the Phillies of the future.
Today, Baseball Prospectus has released their list of top prospects ($) and since it is behind a paywall and they have worked hard on it, we won’t be putting out the entire thing. I’ll give the top ten prospects since it sort of catches one off guard.
- Mick Abel
- Andrew Painter
- Bryson Stott
- Griff McGarry
- Johan Rojas
- Ethan Wilson
- Luis Garcia
- Logan O’Hoppe
- Matt Vierling
- Simon Muzziotti
I have to admit, the shock to me is not that Stott is third on their list. BP usually tends to lean towards players with higher upside and louder tools, which is why Painter is ahead of him. No, the shock to me is seeing McGarry fourth on the list. The discussion around McGarry is that his stuff is the stuff that new age scouts and analysts love to see. The high spin breaking stuff, mid-to-high 90’s fastball that can play up in the zone, that’s what plays in baseball now. He’s a starter now, but does carry some reliever risk (seriously, Google his college walk rates). If he is able to stay on as a starter, his upside is high, which is why his ranking is higher than Rojas.
Rojas’ profile, as with Fangraphs, centers around the questions of if he can hit. If you’re like us, you probably follow Matt Winkelman when it comes to the Phillies’ farm system and when asked about Rojas:
The upside on Johan Rojas is probably like 20 HRs, a bunch of steals, probably upside .270 hitting (likely is more .250-.260), and plus or better defense in center. That is probably a collective 4-5 WAR player upside https://t.co/eAwIqPvTnV— Matt Winkelman (@Matt_Winkelman) January 14, 2022
That’s a solid upside.
Of course, that’s just it. It’s upside. Even at his peak, Winkelman sees an average hit tool to combine with solid power. That’s a really good player, but one who needs to hit to get to it.
You should go and read the article in its entirety (and subscribe to BP). It’s well worth your time.