FanPost

Rest vs Rust and Why Phillies have a good chance to move on




One of my biggest problems with the new playoff format is the layoff that comes with winning a division. The Dodgers had their season locked up by mid September and haven't played a competitive game in a long time. Meanwhile the Braves had their last meaningful game on October 2nd. However it has been even longer for some of the starting pitchers.

Max Fried - Last start September 30th 5 IP since September 17th 10 IP

Wright - Last start October 1st 5 IP since September 20th 10.1 IP

Morton - Last start October 2nd 4.1 IP since September 21th 9 IP

I'm sure they have side sessions, bullpens, and situational practices but you can simulate game and playoff game feels. These guys are professionals and I'm sure they will settle in, but it might take a inning or two to regain that feel, by then it could be over.

However it is even more pronounced for the bullpens. In the playoffs the pen becomes shorter I think their trust is on 4 key guys

  • Iglesias 50 games came with 0,1, or 2 days rest. Last pitched on 10/4
  • Jansen 50 games came with 0,1, or 2 days rest. Last pitched on 10/4
  • Minter 63 games came with 0,1, or 2 days rest. Last pitched on 10/4
  • McHugh 42 games came with 0,1, or 2 days rest. Last pitched on 10/4
Pen guys need a rhythm, they want to be used to keep their stuff fresh and back of the pen arms rely on the adrenalin of a tight game, again things that can't be simulated in a practice.

I'm not going to breakdown the hitters too, but the same holds true for them. Hitting is timing, and they had a long layoff. They can practice all they want, but game situations can only be simulated in a game. Harper's slump was due in large part to his layoff and often batters slumps are explained with "their timing is off." On paper, the braves have advantages up and down their roster, but this is a short series and if the Braves are a little rusty, which I expect them to be, the Phillies could leave Atlanta with a split or even up 2-0 looking to clinch at home. Maybe moving on to a Padres matchup for the same reasons.