The game within the game: Game 3 - Joe Musgrove against the Phillies’ eye levels

Each game of this National League Championship Series, we’re going to take a microlevel look at an intriguing matchup of the day.

Today’s matchup:

Joe Musgrove is very good. When discussing the top pitchers in the game, Musgrove is almost never mentioned, though maybe he should be. It could be a bit of recency bias, his last few starts lingering on our minds as opposed to a season’s worth of work, but going back to see how he has fared, well, the numbers are quite good.

2021: 30 GS, 181 IP, 184/42 K/BB, 2.93 ERA (3.59 FIP)

Philadelphia Phillies games are now available to stream on Sling TV! Which gives you even more accessibility to the Phillies, no matter where you are watching from. Sling TV lets you stream live TV and on-demand content over the Internet on any device; access free DVR storage; and choose from a selection of packages including Sports Extra or NFL RedZone. Order now and get half off your first month of Sling Orange or Sling Blue (regular price $40, now $20 + add any Extra package for half off too!)

Visit Sling TV for prices, streaming options and available channels.

He’s not a big name strikeout pitcher, his strikeout rate of 24.9% hovering right in that league average zone, so he relies on his defense to help him out a good deal. The Padres’ move from Fernando Tatis, Jr. to Ha-Seong Kim at shortstop has been a good boost for Musgrove specifically, which has led to his having a stellar year.

Looking at his arsenal, he likes to keep hitters guessing.

That’s about as even a pitch distribution as you’re going to find on a pitcher. He’s favors his slider and four-seam fastball the most, but the difference between those two and the next two is small enough that hitters cannot just discard pitches as they walk to the plate. They need to be ready for anything once they step in the box.

What’s going to be a test for the Phillies is the eye level at which Musgrove lives. You can see from the heat maps that the breaking pitches (slider, curveball) that the main goal is the keep those pitches down in the zone, using the spin he gets on them to keep the pitches down.

In turn, he’ll use the four-seam fastball up in the zone to keep the hitters’ eye levels off balance. It’s the newer school of thought when it comes to pitching, high in the zone fastballs followed by sharp, high spin breaking pitches down in the zone. Musgrove has taken that philosophy and run with it, becoming one of the better pitchers in the National League.

The Phillies will have to make sure that when they are swinging at pitches, they’ll have to gameplan for what Musgrove is likely gameplanning. It’ll be an interesting matchup in this game.