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Martin's Phillies Hot Stove # 3 - 2nd Base

The Phillies ranked 14th with .3 Wins Above Replacement at 2nd base (Baseball Reference). Jean Segura had PAs of 387 / ~55% and Bryson Stott had 160 at 2nd base ~ 24%. Maton, Munoz, and even Vierling had the rest

Jean Segura 2022 PA: 387,HR: 10, .277/.336/.387 OPS .723 OPS+ 104 Def 3.0

career (/162): PA: 684,HR: 13, .285/.440/.408 OPS .739 OPS+ 100 Def 4.8

Segura made $14.25 million in 2022 - the club declined an option for $17 million

Though Segura had good year in 2022 with improved defense & hitting only a little off his career,

he didn't fare as well in the post season: Segura AB: 56 .214 /.250 /.250 .500

Though anybody can have a bad postseason Altuve was worse and no 2nd Baseman really stood out.

(the best was maybe Cronenworth-SD AB: 46 .238 /.286 /.304 .590

The Phillies decided not to pick up his club option for $3 million more.. Although some have speculated the Phillies may get Segura back for less than $17 million later, I think Segura - who wanted to play for the Phillies personally - will find another home as a free agent before then. As we'll discuss later the free agent market for second basemen is weak this year. Some teams (CWS, Reds, Nats, DBacks, Rangers) need second basemen. Segura is good enough not to be toyed with. For the Phillies - Segura was a reliably just above average bat and glove and not as streaky as Hoskins. But I'm not going to consider getting Segura back as a strategy because I just can't see it happening.

Minors of note: The Phillies #6 prospect is 2B Hao Yu Lee who may be ready as early as 2025? Hard to compare him at this point. They also have lesser prospects at short in Casey Martin (2A) & Luis Garcia - neither are forecasted to be impact MLB players.

Strategy #1 Bryson Stott

25 yo Stott played 47 games at 2B and 83 games at short in 2022 ( & 2 at 3rd).

2022 PA: 466, HR: 10, .234/.295/.358 OPS .653,

8/15/22-> only PA: 162, HR: 3, .265/.323/.401 OPS .724 (.723 Fangraphs projection for 2023)

2022 Post Season AB: 44 HR: 0 .136/.255/.227 OPS .429

Stott wasn't good, but he out hit Dansby Swanson (OPS .364) & Wander Franco (.311)

Stott is pre-arb $700K & will not be eligible for arb1 until 2025

Stott didn't have an error at second base in 47 games/106 plays, according to Fielding Bible he was +1 DRS at second (-5 DRS at short). Fangraphs had him at OAA +3 at 2nd & -3 at short.

Stott is a college player (UNLV) who rose through the minor league ranks quickly from the draft in 2019 with one year each of A+, AA, AAA & AZFL. Phillies fans saw him mature as a major league hitter in 2022 and it was sometimes painful. He was great in spring training, stunk it up for a month in the majors, was sent down, called back up out of necessity when Segura was injured to play 2nd. He showed more promise and then was moved to short when Gregorius was DFA'd in June. By August he seemed to have stabilized with the bat - chasing fewer balls and settling into Kevin Long's 2 strike coaching. As illustrated above - from August 15th to the end of the season - he basically matched Segura's season. He did not have a good post season. He's more reliable with the glove and is not flashy but automatic. He is a LHB - and the Phillies have a lot of LHBs. He is a buddy/protoge' of Bryce Harper - both grew up in Las Vegas and Stott has been Harper's Spring Training room-mate and even occasional housemate in Philly.

Could Stott have a Bohm-like sophomore slump? Yes - it's possible. But some key differences reduce this risk 1) ready replacements in Maton, Sosa 2) Stott isn't the same kind of hitter - if he sticks with his plate discipline approach 3) even a slumping Stott is a better defender than Bohm or most of the alternatives - if bat slumps - glove is still good.

Move Stott to 2nd base and you have a younger Jean Segura with maybe better defense for $13 million less.

Strategy #2 Edmundo Sosa or Sosa/Stott platoon or Nick Maton

before the trade deadline Dombrowski traded Jojo Romero to the Cards for Sosa.

Sosa 2022 PA: 190, HR: 2, .227/.275/.369 OPS .642 Def 7.0

Phillies only 22 PA: 54, HR: 2, .315/.345/.593 OPS .937

post season: AB: 8 .250 /.333 /.376 OPS .706

career (/162) PA: 424 HR: 6, .253/.321/.378 OPS .699

Sosa is pre-arb $715K & will not be eligible for arb1 until 2024

Fangraphs/Steamer is projecting Sosa at .672 OPS & 348 PAs in 2023.

Sosa had really good hitting numbers in a smallish sample for the Phillies in both the regular season and the playoffs. He's a year ahead of Stott towards arbitration, but only 80 PAs ahead in major league play. He has a reputation as the best defensive player on the team, but he did not play an inning at 2nd for the Phillies in 2022. Because Sosa is a RHB and Stott is a LHB - they are oft mentioned as a platoon, and Thomson did platoon them at times (for shortstop):

Stott / Sosa platoon 2022 platoon splits:

Stott: vsRHP: PA: 356, HR: 8, .226/.282/.342 OPS .624

vsLHP: PA: 110, HR: 2, .263/.336/.414 OPS .750

Sosa: vsRHP: PA: 102, HR: 0, .223/.275/.309 OPS .584

vsLHP: PA: 88, HR: 2, .232/.276/.439 OPS .748

Because Stott has almost a reverse platoon split - there isn't much advantage in platooning these two. Stott is stronger vs. RHPs, but has very near Sosa's stats vs. LHPs. These may not hold up and some say MLB teams & Thomson don't consider reverse splits as legit - but we can say there isn't a strong split favoring a permanent platoon (other than just the fact of them being LHB & RHB and believing in platooning).

Bottom line. Sosa was a great pickup - a great defensive player who shows occasional signs of having more offense than Stott - but I don't think the Phillies see him as a second baseman. He has played 31 games as a major leaguer at second (of 172).

Nick Maton LHB 25 YO pre-arb $700K & will not be eligible for arb1 until 2025

2022 PA: 85 .250/.341/.514 OPS .855

Career: PA: 216 .254/.330/.434 OPS .764

Fangraphs 2023: PA: 109 OPS: .675

Maton has posted -1 OAA at 2B and -4 OAA at SS in too small samples to take seriously but I think we can say Maton is an adequate fielder but not as reliable as Stott or Sosa.

"Wolfie" is a fan and clubhouse favorite who hits and plays a number of positions

Like Sosa, his somewhat small sample 22 Phillies numbers are impressive, but his "home position" is probably second base, not short. As a LHB he is not a candidate for a platoon with Stott, so he would have to displace Stott there. Barring injury to Stott, I don't see that happening - he'd have to get very hot in spring training to make a run. However LHB Maton makes a nice compliment to RHB Vierling & RHB Sosa on the bench.

Strategy #3 Free Agent 2Bs .. and the cupboard was bare...

Adam Frazier 31yo LHB (last SEA) 2022 $8m Market (Spotrac): $10M

2022: AB: 541 HR: 3 .238/.301/.311 OPS: .612 OPS+: 80 OAA +6 (Fangraphs)

Career: AB: 2751 HR: 8/yr .273/.336/.392 .728 OPS+ 99

Fangraphs 23 AB: 130 6 HR .264/.325/.369 .694

also Josh Harrison CHW, Donovan Solano CIN, Cesar Hernandez WSH

these are all $5m 2B from teams that had poor results at second last year with these guys and are looking at Jean Segura or Frazier as a possible solution to their 2B problems. Frazier is okay - but not worth $10M more than Stott - maybe not better than Segura (better defensively, maybe not with bat).

Martin's prescription: Move Stott to 2B permanently & everyday

Payroll impact: $13 million savings vs. 2022.

Performance impact: forecasted to be minimal - about the same..

Martin's Phillies Hot Stove # 1 - 1st Base

Martin's Phillies Hot Stove # 2 - Catcher