I already gave some offseason thoughts a bit ago, but I thought I would give it a more official go now that the Phillies have wrapped up their End of Season press conference.
- Jose Alvarado: $3.2 million
- Rhys Hoskins: $12.6 million
- Seranthony Dominguez: $2 million
- Ranger Suarez: $3.5 million
- Sam Coonrod: $800,000
- Yairo Munoz: $1 million
- Edmundo Sosa: $1 million
To me, this section is fairly easy to predict. I would expect all of these players except Munoz to return next season. Suarez, Alvarado, Dominguez, Sosa, and Hoskins are easy decisions to bring back. Yes, Rhys Hoskins will start at first base next season, Dombrowski even said himself that Rhys is the leading candidate to be at first next season. A trade return for Hoskins wouldn't command much and a marginal upgrade wouldn't be worth the increased cost with Rhys still under control. Coonrad is cheap so the org will at least see if he has anything left in the spring and Munoz is already off the 40 man and probably looking for more playing time elsewhere.
Trea Turner 8 years $256 million $32 mil AAV
In my eyes, Turner is the clear best free agent SS fit and the most likely to sign here in my opinion. Trea has a great contact bat that would fit great at the top of the lineup, as well as strong athleticism that bodes well for him holding off the aging curve and sticking at shortstop for a majority of the contract.
He also has the least questions of any of the free agent shortstops. Bogaerts has defensive questions of how long he can stick at short and the market is uncertain how many offers he'll even have to play short. Signing Bogaerts could leave the team needing to shell out money that they don't have for a shortstop in the future with him needing to move off the position.
Swanson has questions of how long he can keep up his offensive production with his rather poor high K% low BB% approach, and how long he'll be able to play plus defense which is important to his value.
Correa may be the 1A to Turner as the 1B of the free agent shortstop market, but I think his signing with the Twins last offseason shows that he may go wherever the most money takes him.
SP Andrew Heaney 3 years $42 million $14 mil AAV
If the Phillies are signing Trea Turner they aren't signing a starter that got a Qualifying Offer, unless they could get the top option in Rodon. That means Bassitt and Eovaldi are out. With Painter, Abel, and McGarry on the way, the team also probably doesn't want to lock into one of the longer term mid tier starters in Walker and Taillon. This pretty much leaves Heaney, Quintana, and Eflin but I chose Heaney just he was basically rebuilt by the Dodgers and could be the most interesting, but any of the three could do.
RP Adam Ottavino 2 years $14 million $7 mil AAV
Ottavino had a stellar bounce back 2022 and has a wipe out fastball/slider combo. The Phillies are likely priced out of the higher end relief options but Ottavino is no slouch.
The Phillies trade catcher Donny Sands, OF Ethan Wilson, and RP Francisco Morales to the Diamondbacks for RP Joe Mantiply and OF/1B Pavin Smith
Mantiply had a breakout 2022 season and many wondered if he could have been on the move last year. Mantiply could play well as the Phillies second lefty in the bullpen behind Alvarado. In fact, he may be the anti Alvarado, only having a 2.5 BB% last season. The left handed reliever market isn't great behind Taylor Rogers and Mantiply is controllable for a while so this is a spot where it makes sense to make a deal. Smith is a former highly touted prospect with a left handed bat that can play first or the outfield. He hasn't done much in his major league time, but Arizona has a crowed outfield and maybe Phillies hitting coach Kevin Long sees something he can work with. Smith could be low risk depth in the absence of Harper, and a more flexible option than Hall since he can play outfield.
At this point I'm not sure what a Nola extension looks like, but I do know it needs to happen. Over the past few seasons, Aaron Nola has been not only one of the best starting pitchers, but the most durable too. Having a starting pitcher with of his quality and durability has immense value and if the Phillies don't shell out a lot of money to him someone else will.
SP1: Zack Wheeler $24,500,000
SP2: Aaron Nola $16,000,000
SP3: Ranger Suarez $3,500,000
SP4: Andrew Heaney $14,000,000
SP5: Bailey Falter $700,000
RP: Seranthony Dominguez $2,000,000
RP: Jose Alvarado $3,200,000
RP: Adam Ottavino $7,000,000
RP: Joe Mantiply $700,000
RP: Connor Brogdon $700,000
RP: Andrew Bellati $700,000
RP: Cris Sanchez $700,000
RP: Nick Nelson $700,000
C: J.T. Realmuto $23,875,000
1B: Rhys Hoskins $12,600,000
2B: Bryson Stott $700,000
SS: Trea Turner $32,000,000
3B: Alec Bohm $700,000
LF: Kyle Schwarber $20,000,000
CF: Brandon Marsh $700,000
RF: Pavin Smith $700,000
DH: Nick Castellanos $20,000,000
Injured: Bryce Harper $27,538,462
Bench: Garrett Stubbs $700,000
Bench: Edmundo Sosa $1,000,000
Bench: Matt Vierling $700,000
Bench: Nick Maton $700,000
The strength of this team is definitely the depth of the line up. The addition of Turner and another year of progression for the Phillies day care would soldify the team as one of the best offenses in the NL and help mitigate the loss of Harper in his absence (and that's not even mentioning a Castellanos bounce back). The bench would also be deep enough to sustain an unforseen injury or a prolonged Harper injury with Maton, Guthrie, Hall, and new acquisition Smith as options depending on the current need.
The big 3 in the rotation with the addition of Heaney should be one of the better rotations in the NL, but the emergence of one of the prospect arms could really make it a strength. It is really up to the ownership how much will be spent on the starting pitcher acquired, but shortstop should be the offseason priority due to the needed future flexibility to include the top pitching prospects.
Like last year, the weakness of this team is the bullpen. Ottavino and Mantiply should certainly help, but an injury or two and things could unravel. Luckily, the easiest trade deadline acquistion a team can make is a reliever, so an upgrade or two can be had for a reasonable price.