FanPost

OTB's 2021-22 Phillies offseason plan

The budget

$250 million

Arbitration

  • Jose Alvarado: $3.2 million - yes
  • Rhys Hoskins: $12.6 million - yes
  • Seranthony Dominguez: $2 million - yes
  • Ranger Suarez: $3.5 million - yes
  • Sam Coonrod: $800,000 - yes
  • Yairo Munoz: $1 million - no
  • Edmundo Sosa: $1 million - yes

Free Agents

Figures (mostly) taken from MLBTradeRumors Top 50 FA List

  • Justin Verlander: 2yrs/$80 million, option for 3rd year (AAV $40m)
  • Trea Turner: 8yrs/$268 million (AAV $33.5m)
  • Adam Ottavino: 2yrs/$14 million (AAV $7m)
  • Drew Smyly: 1yr/$4 million
I think Turner and Verlander speak for themselves. This probably means the Phillies can only extend one of Hoskins and Nola, but I'm okay with that. I'm hoping for Ottavino to be my 7th/occasional 8th inning type guy. Smyly starts the year as the #5 SP and I have no issue moving him to the bullpen if/when Andrew Painter is ready.

Trades

None. I wanted to make a plan for Zac Gallen, but I don't see Arizona putting him out there quite yet. Maybe next year.

The roster

SP1: Wheeler - $24.5m
SP2: Verlander - $40m
SP3: Suarez - $3.5m
SP4: Nola (only to breakup the lefties) - $16m
SP5: Smyly - $4m

RP: Domiguez - $2m
RP: Alvarado - $3.2m
RP: Ottavino - $7m
RP: Bellatti - $720k
RP: Brogdon - $720k
RP: Coonrod - $800k
RP: Falter - $720k
RP: Nick Nelson - $720k

C: Realmuto - $23.9m
1B: Hoskins - $12.6m
2B: Stott - $720k
SS: Turner - $33.5m
3B: Bohm - $720k
LF: Schwarber - $20m
CF: Marsh - $720k
RF: Castellanos - $20m
DH: Harper - $27.5m

Bench: Sosa (IF) - $1m
Bench: Vierling (OF) - $720k
Bench: Stubbs (C) - $720k
Bench: Maton (IF/OF) - $720k

Total Payroll - $246.7m

Summary

I'm obviously adding 2 big name stars and not much else. However, I'm also addressing 2 of the Phillies' biggest needs. Turner can hit leadoff and allow Schwarber to move into the middle of the order and effectively lengthen the lineup. If Harper is on the IL to start the year, I'm calling up someone from the minors (Hall, Guthrie, maybe Muzziotti).

Strengths:

  • The rotation now has a formidable 1-4 and still leaves the potential for Painter to take over #5 or go to a 6-man rotation. Maybe this takes some of the pressure off of Nola too, which could help him.
  • The lineup. With Turner at the top, with his speed and on-base skills, This team should put up runs. Especially if they can figure out Castellanos.
  • Versatility with the bench and the back-end rotation. Sosa and Vierling give good platoon options and Maton is a good fill-in player to give off days as needed. Smyly can easily be sent to the bullpen if Andrew Painter comes up and Bailey Falter can also make a spot start if needed.
Weaknesses:
  • The bullpen isn't really improved from last year. Ottavino should help in the late innings, probably better than David Robertson. Maybe Falter can also be a situational lefty in the middle innings, but I still feel like the bullpen is short a LHP. Especially if Alvarado starts losing control. I'm also depending on Coonrod, Brogdon and Nelson a bit more than I'd prefer. But overall, I think it's good enough. Hey, if they need another reliever, that's what the trade deadline is for.
  • Financial flexibility in the next 2 years is tough. As I mentioned, this plan means that the Phillies can't extend both Nola and Hoskins. But I'm okay with that.