Philliescts 2021-22 Phillies offseason plan

Your budget

$250 million

$225.52 Million (add 5M-8M for non-roster invitee to make the roster)

Arbitration

• Jose Alvarado: $3.2 million

• Rhys Hoskins: $12.6 million

• Seranthony Dominguez: $2 million

• Ranger Suarez: $3.5 million

• Sam Coonrod: $800,000

• Edmundo Sosa: $1 million

Options

Done

Free Agents

The pitching market is ridiculous right now. I do not think it would be wise to spend at the price point for the MLB RP in terms of the years or dollar amount. Personally, I would never go beyond 2 years for a RP.

Outside of the top 2 I would not give up draft pick compensation for a SP on the market. Right away that limits my options to

DeGrom and Verlander (no QO), Rendon, Senga, and a whole lot of meh (I would like Bassitt or Eovaldi if not for the QO). In DeGrom and Verlander the price point is just too high. I think Verlander would be helpful and he has a familiarity with DD, but 40+M for a guy over 40 would not bring back a great ROI. For the years, I don’t trust Rendon. He is not a work horse, he could be a good complementary piece in the rotation (which you could argue is why he’d be a fit) but he’s going to get Ace type money and will not carry the workload of an ace. Senga is interesting, but unproven. He should be a #3 type pitcher right away with upside to be a #2 at 3-4 years for 15-20M AAV. If my trade falls through, I would look to him as my back up.

For the RP I’m looking at casting a wide net. I’d try to lock down 1 sure MLB RP like a Boxberger, Robertson, Lugo, Trevor May type to a 1 yr deal. Other than that I’m calling guys to see if they would accept a MiLB deal with a MLB invite and an opt out. I’d look to guys who were hurt like Archie Bradley, Keone Kela, Corey Knebel, Scott Oberg to see if they would take a MiLB deal with an invite that guarantees them about 5-8M if they make the roster. It would enable me to manipulate my 40 man til ST.

The big FA signing is Turner. What is there to say that hasn’t been said. GG level defense, leadoff hitter, .300 hitter, 20/20 seasons, maybe 30/30, post season tested. I would gladly accept the MLBTR estimate of 8/268M

Since this is my offseason plan, I wanted to put in a few things I would look into, but wouldn’t necessarily think would happen. 1st the Phillies have done next to nothing in the Far East. We had So Taguchi and Tad Iguchi during the 07-11 run and had Chan Ho Park for a minute. But the Phillies have done nothing to have fan interest in the Far East. From a business perspective, that is a lost market. Now Yoshida is not Ichiro or Ohtani, but he LOVES Harper and would have a half a season to earn an everyday spot. This would be a big gamble for a spot that really isn’t open, but it is also playing a long game in which hopefully Yoshida does well, plays well and can be used as an ambassador to recruit Roki Sasaki when he gets posted. Right now there is an alure to play in Seattle, LA, or NY for the top Far East FA. I’d like the Phillies to be part of that, but it starts by signing 1.

Looking at what I had, I felt obligated to add a RH power bat. I wanted that bat to be capable of playing 1st base and the OF when a LHP was on the mound. I think Wil Myers has enough in the tank at the right price.

Trades

The Rockies are one of the poorest run franchises in my opinion. It is nearly impossible to predict what they are going to do in any season. They trade marquee players for pennies on the dollar, hold on to players during the trade deadline and don’t even offer them arbitration, let home grown players walk, then sign FA to larger deals than it would take to keep the home grown talent. So in terms of this trade I have ZERO confidence it would happen, but from a team standpoint it makes sense for both sides

Phillies trade 1st Hall, RHP McGarry, LHP Miller to the

Rockies SP Marquez, 2nd/3rd McMahon

I am deeply concerned about the splits on McMahon, but his tools (hard hit rate, exit velo, and BB%) look like they would transfer to a new ballpark. My other concern is that you’d have another LH bat in the lineup, but if the result of the shift holds true, having more LH batters could be advantageous.

As I said, I am not enamored with the FA prices of SP. Marquez has always been enamored me since his start vs the Phillies where he struck out 8 in a row to start the game. Luckily Nick Pivetta was able to make contact with a pitch or it would have been 9. He had a down year, but his stuff has not regressed. I would also like to see what his braking stuff could do on a regular basis outside of the Coors elevation.

For the Rockies they have CJ Cron at 33 and Charlie Blackmon 36 as their 1st base and DH. Hall would be able to mix in there and put up some impressive numbers at Coors. Being in Colorado also makes it impossible to bring in FA pitching without massive overpays, so they need to trade and develop their own. McGarry’s stuff could still play in Coors as he is a high K pitcher and Miller could immediately step in as a LH relief option this season.

Phillies trade 1st Hoskins and cash (2-4M) and OF Wilson to the

Brewers RHRP Bush and RHP Misiorowski

This follows the mold of the Teoscar trade where the Jays got good RP help for a guy with 1 year of control and 1 tool. The Brewers are a mid-market team that needs to spend to remain competitive, but as we saw with the Hader trade, this team is very cost conscious. They need bats and did not get great production from 1st/DH. They probably will avoid spending in the FA market (Bell 4/64M, Abreu 2/40M), but if they could get a Hoskins for 8-10M a year, they prob would.

For the Phillies, Bush had a phenomenal 2022 and the peripherals show it was no fluke. He’s 36 but does not have a lot of innings on his arm. He’s in Arb yr 2 and projected 2M

Misiorowski is the Brewers 9th or 10th best prospect. He is a boom or bust wild card. He was highly touted coming out of HS, but Covid hit, injuries hit, and his development stalled. At worst he is a 6’7" RHP with 100MPH fastball and a slider, so he could go to the pen. But if he gains control of a 3rd pitch and improves his command he could be another arm in the rotation.

The roster

SP1: Wheeler (23.6M)
SP2: Nola (16M)
SP3: Suarez (3.5M)
SP4: Marquez (trade w/ Rockies) (15.5M)
SP5: Falter/ Young guns (720K)

RP: L) Alverado (3.2M)
RP: R) Dominguez (2M)
RP: R) Coonrod (800K)
RP: R) Nelson (720K)
RP: L) Sanchez (720K)
RP: L) Andrew Vasquez (720K)
RP: R) Morales (720K) or Boxberger (3M)
RP: R) Matt Bush (2M)

C: Realmuto (23.1M)
1B: Bohm (720K)
2B: Stott (720K)
SS: Turner (FA) 8/270 (33.75M)
3B: McMahon (Trade w/ Rockies) (720K)
LF: Schwarber/ Castellanos (Schw 19.75M, Cast 20M)
CF: Marsh (720K)
RF: Yoshida (FA) 3 yr 17M + vesting option at 20M for yr 4
DH: Schwarber/ Castellanos

Bench: Stubbs (720K)
Bench: Sosa (1M)
Bench: Vierling (720K)
Bench: Wil Myers (4M)

Inj – Harper (25.4M)

Summary

The starting rotation becomes a huge advantage. Marquez is under contract for the next two season and has Ace stuff at the price of a 4th starter today. Many people turn to the rotation for why we lost in the WS (it wasn’t, they won 2 of the pen games and held the stros to 3 runs in the other but I digress). It also means they are really deep with Falter, Plassmeyer, Sanchez, Painter, and Abel fighting for 1 spot to start the season and filling in throughout.

I do neglect the pen, but in all honesty, there is nothing out there. The reason the Mets had to give out that ridiculous contract is there is nothing to replace Diaz with. I do not want to go 3 years for an above avg RP and there is nothing that screams high AAV on a short deal. With the budget room I have left and the flexibility to deal OF on the roster, I am confident I could address the pen in season.

Defensively I like the team. I have plus defenders on the left side of the IF in McMahon and Turner and at least avg defenders in the right side in Bohm and Stott (Bohm was a 0 OAA and Stott a +3 OAA in limited time at 1st and 2nd in 2022). If Bohm can not handle 1st I have insurance in Wil Myers who is slightly above avg defensively. For a staff filed with guys that minimizes hard contact and induces a lot of groundballs, improving the team D could improve run prevention by a half a run, just look at xERA vs the ERA from the past 4 seasons.

Signing Yoshida and trading for McMahon does make the lineup unbalanced, but with the elimination of the shift and the three batter minimum, it is not as detrimental as it normally would be. In addition, the bench is mostly RH. If the second coming of Randy Johnson is on the mound I could still have Bohm, Turner, Sosa, Myers in the IF and Vierling for Yoshida or Marsh.

Ultimately what this does for the offense is offset some of the feast or famine type hitting in the lineup. Yoshida is a high contact player, as is Turner. McMahon has a similar K and BB rate as Hoskins, but doesn’t have the MVP type highs and LVP type lows and he plays a steady defense. Would this line up hit 7 HR in a single game, I doubt it, but it also wouldn’t be shut out for multiple games in a series either. With that rotation, that might be all they need to contend for a division.