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Philliescts 2021-22 Phillies revised offseason plan



Philliescts 2021-22 Phillies revised offseason plan

Your budget

$250 million

$216.23 Million

Arbitration

  • Jose Alvarado: $3.2 million

  • Rhys Hoskins: $12.6 million

  • Seranthony Dominguez: $2 million

  • Ranger Suarez: $3.5 million

  • Sam Coonrod: $800,000

  • Edmundo Sosa: $1 million

Options

Done

Free Agents

The pitching market is ridiculous right now. I do not think it would be wise to spend at the price point for the MLB RP in terms of the years or dollar amount. Personally, I would never go beyond 2 years for a RP. And until there is data on the effectiveness of GB pitchers with the shift ban, I’d be hesitant to commit long term to a non-strikeout pitcher.

Outside of the top 2 I would not give up draft pick compensation for a SP on the market. Right away that limits my options to

DeGrom and Verlander (no QO), Rendon, Senga, and a whole lot of meh (I would like Bassitt or Eovaldi if not for the QO). In DeGrom and Verlander the price point is just too high. I think Verlander would be helpful and he has a familiarity with DD, but 40+M for a guy over 40 would not bring back a great ROI. For the years, I don’t trust Rendon. He is not a work horse, he could be a good complementary piece in the rotation (which you could argue is why he’d be a fit) but he’s going to get Ace type money and will not carry the workload of an ace. Senga is interesting, but unproven. He should be a #3 type pitcher right away with upside to be a #2 at 3-4 years for 15-20M AAV. If my trade falls through, I would look to him as my back up though I think the bidding will get out of hand since there is not QO on Senga.

For the RP I’m looking at casting a wide net. I’d try to lock down 1 sure MLB RP like a Boxberger, Robertson, Lugo, Trevor May type to a 1 yr deal or non tendered guys like Josh James, Trevor Gott, Alex Reyes, Mauricio Llovera, Erick Fedde, Ryan Yarbrough. Other than that I’m calling guys to see if they would accept a MiLB deal with a MLB invite and an opt out. I’d look to guys who were hurt like Archie Bradley, Keone Kela, Corey Knebel, Scott Oberg to see if they would take a MiLB deal with an invite that guarantees them about 5-8M if they make the roster. It would enable me to manipulate my 40 man til ST.

Brad Boxberger 1 yr 3M or Trevor May 1 yr 5M

The big FA signing is Correa. I really like Turner and think he is a great fit for the lineup as currently constructed. If I had to pick a player to play SS for the 2023 Phillies, it would be Turner. However, whoever is signed is the SS for the next 5 years at least. Digging deeper into Turner, he is basically Nomar Garciaparra. Nomar was great in his prime, but dropped off quick. Turner relies on his legs and swings outside the zone, a lot. It all points to a players that won’t age too well. Correa on the other hand has a McCutchen type approche to the plate and plays well above avg D. His bat makes the lineup much deeper and has a very good chance of holding up over the life of his 9 year contract. Nine Years $288MM - 32AAV

Carlos Correa 9yr 288M

After I completed this I noticed that since I had Hoskins, Schwarber, and Castellanos listed at their position and DH, I technically had 1 more roster spot. The simple solution would be to have Maton take the spot. I do think he will have more time with the big club, but I would want to see where along the margins I could improve the team. This is a make or break year for Bohm. In a perfect world he would take third base and run with it out of spring training. But remember, Stott was the starting 3rd basemen and the year prior he was sent down to AAA. Sosa is an insurance policy but I would only trust him in short bursts. If I need him as a starter for longer than a week at a time, it could be a problem. So for my final bench spot I would take a flier on recently non-tendered Jeimer Candelario. He plays avg D at 3rd and did a very good job at 1st in 2020, starting a number of DP. He is a switch hitter who hits LHP very well, meaning he could be a valuable weapon late in games to pinch hit for Biggio, Stott, or Marsh. He could also be insurance for an injury or performance issues at both 1st and 3rd.

Jeimer Candelario 1yr 3.5M

Trades

The Rockies are one of the poorest run franchises in my opinion. It is nearly impossible to predict what they are going to do in any season. They trade marquee players for pennies on the dollar, hold on to players during the trade deadline and don’t even offer them arbitration, let home grown players walk, then sign FA to larger deals than it would take to keep the home grown talent. So in terms of this trade I have ZERO confidence it would happen, but from a team standpoint it makes sense for both sides

Phillies trade 1st Hall OF Wilson

Rockies SP Marquez

As I said, I am not excited with the FA prices of SP. However, Marquez has always been enamored me since his start vs the Phillies where he struck out 8 in a row to start the game. Luckily Nick Pivetta was able to make contact with a pitch or it would have been 9. He had a down year, but his stuff has not regressed. I would also like to see what his braking stuff could do on a regular basis outside of the Coors elevation. He is under contract for 2023 at 15M and has a club option in 2024 for 16M.

For the Rockies they have CJ Cron at 33 and Charlie Blackmon 36 as their 1st base and DH. Hall would be able to mix in there and put up some impressive numbers at Coors. They also have some aging OF and a relatively weak farm. Taking a flier on Wilson should be what the Rockies are doing, I’m not confident they would though.

Although I am a believer that the Phillies should move on from Hoskins since he is not in the future plans, the Harper news and my feelings about shifting focus from Turner to Correa changes my focus a bit. They need a guy who can play the OF, 1st, maybe 3rd

Phillies trade LHP David Parkinson to the

Blue Jays for Cavan Biggio (2.6M)

The Blue Jays are looking at some big FA and if/when they sign them they won’t have the playing time for a player like Biggio nor would they want to invest the money into that player. Biggio has seen time at 2nd, 3rd, 1st, RF and played fairly well defensively at each. He also has shown glimpses of a 20/20 season. With they expanded bases his speed could become a weapon. He hasn’t hit as well as expected, but his eye for the zone has still been an elite tool. The other option here is to sign Cody Bellinger who is capable of Gold Glove D at CF and 1st. However both of these hitters have struggled offensively recently.


Bellinger

Biggio

2020

.239

.250

2021

.165

.224

2022

.210

.202

However Biggio’s eye is still letting him get on base and use his speed. It also tells me that there is something mechanical with his swing that could be fixed as his pitch recognition is obviously still there.


Bellinger

Biggio

2020

.333

.375

2021

.240

.322

2022

.265

.318

There might be more upside with Bellinger and there is more name recognition but it is looking like a 15M gamble for potentially a Tavis Jankowski whereas Biggio is less than 3M. There is no guarantee that either player turns it around, but if Biggio continues his downward trend, I am confident that the Phillies could shift gears and pivot off Biggio, they wouldn’t have that luxury with the 15M they commit to Bellinger.

The roster

SP1: Wheeler (23.6M)

SP2: Nola (16M)

SP3: Suarez (3.5M)

SP4: Marquez (trade w/ Rockies) (15.5M)

SP5: Falter/ Young guns (720K)

RP: L) Alverado (3.2M)

RP: R) Dominguez (2M)

RP: R) Coonrod (800K)

RP: R) Nelson (720K)

RP: L) Sanchez (720K)

RP: L) Andrew Vasquez (720K)

RP: R) Morales or McGarry (720K)

RP: R) Boxberger (3M) or May (5M)

C: Realmuto (23.1M)

1B: Hoskins (12.6)

2B: Stott (720K)

SS: Correa (FA) 9/288 (32M)

3B: Bohm (720K)

LF: Schwarber (19.75M)

CF: Marsh (720K)

RF: Castellanos (20M)

DH: Schwarber/ Castellanos/ Hoskins

Bench: Stubbs (720K)

Bench: Sosa (1M)

Bench: Vierling (720K)

Bench: Cavan Biggio (2.6M) Trade with Jays

Bench: Jeimer Candelario (3.5M)

Inj – Harper (25.4M)

Summary

The starting rotation becomes a huge advantage. Marquez is under contract for the next two season and has Ace stuff at the price of a 4th starter today. Many people turn to the rotation for why we lost in the WS (it wasn’t, they won 2 of the pen games and held the stros to 3 runs in the other but I digress). It also means they are really deep with Falter, Plassmeyer, Sanchez, Painter, and Abel fighting for 1 spot to start the season and filling in throughout.

Just to put some numbers to what the rotation could mean - There are 1458 innings to pitch in a season (9x162) only 5 pitchers threw more than 200 innings and only 44 pitchers qualified for the ERA title. More and more innings are being relied on by the pen and spot starters. I expect the Phillies to be conservative with Nola and Wheeler, but it is still plausible to expect 180 innings from both of them and a few more starts from Ranger. You can also pencil in Marquez for 180 innings too with his track record.

The rotation could be conservatively - Wheeler 180IP, Nola 180IP, Ranger 170IP, Marquez 180IP, and Falter/Painter 160IP. That would be 870 innings covered by your starting 5. There would still be a spot start by Sanchez, Plassmeyer, or a pen game but your looking at conservatively about 900 innings by the starters and only 500 by the bullpen. Teams don’t have that kind of workhorse rotations (I know its nuts, but 180 is a workhorse today). The dodgers had ZERO pitchers go 180 innings, the Astros just 1, only the Guardians had 3 go over 180. That sort of dependability coupled with the potential offense of the club should put the Phillies right in the middle of the 2023 playoffs.

I do neglect the pen, but in all honesty, there is nothing out there. The reason the Mets had to give out that ridiculous contract is there is nothing to replace Diaz with. I do not want to go 3 years for an above avg RP and there is nothing that screams high AAV on a short deal. With the budget room I have left and the flexibility to deal OF on the roster, I am confident I could address the pen in season.

Defensively there is a lot of flexibility. I could DH Hoskins and evaluate Bohm at 1st, I could use Candelario, Biggio, Vierling at 1st or spell JT from behind the plate. I have a gold glove SS and insurance at 3rd and 2nd in Biggio, Sosa, and Candelario. If I wanted late in a game I could go Sosa, Correa, Stott, Biggio in the IF. The OF will look a whole lot better once Harper is healed up but I do have options with Vierling and Biggio. Unlike years past, there is also depth in the minors if there is a long term injury. Also an improved defense could help tremendously with run prevention and help normalize the xERA to the ERA.

The lineup allows the team to mix and match and play matchups with defensive linups for GB pitchers and advantages with LH/RH matchups.


VS RHP

VS LHP

1

2nd Stott

SS Correa

2

SS Correa

C Realmuto

3

C Realmuto

LF Schwarber

4

LF Schwarber

RF Castellanos

5

DH Castellanos

DH Hoskins

6

1st Hoskins

1st Candelario

7

CF Marsh

3rd Bohm

8

3rd Bohm

CF Vierling

9

RF Biggio

2nd Sosa