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Schwarber Signing Leads to More Protection for Harper, Potential For a New Lead Off Hitter

Now that the Phillies have signed a bat to add to their offense, some lineup predictions and analysis is necessary of what the Phillies will look like with the addition of Schwarber. While Schwarber went crazy while hitting lead off for the Nationals last year, and he does had good numbers hitting first in a lineup, the signing of Schwarber should allow the Phillies to finally let someone hit in the leadoff spot: Rhys Hoskins.

If I was Joe Girardi, one of the first things I'd do with the addition of Schwarber is to write up a new lineup card, one that had his first basemen hitting first. Hoskins has had a bad bug of injuries that have cost him some time and production in his career, and he's also at fault of being the most successful first baseman in Philadelphia since Ryan Howard. When Hoskins hit the scene in 2017, he went off for a crazy power surge, breaking homerun records in such a short amount of time. When he was seemingly hitting homeruns every game, people placed expectations on him as if he was going to be the next feared slugger in Philly, the next coming of Ryan Howard. While it was fun to dream of all the 40 home run seasons Hoskins would rack up while playing first base at Citizen's Bank Park, that's just now who Rhys is.

Rhys is more comparable to former Phillies Carlos Santana and Jayson Werth. While both of those guys had 30 homer seasons in them, they were players that saw lots of pitches, worked the opposing pitcher, and drew walks. When they found a pitch that they really liked, then souvenirs were gifted to fans in the stands. Their calling card, though, was their ability to work at bats and fight off pitches, using their discipline and batter's eye to lay off pitches outside of the zone. They all knew how to work a walk. At times, Hoskins can be frustrating since we all know the power he possesses as he lets what seems like a hittable pitch cross the plate. It wasn't the pitch he was looking for, and Hoskins doesn't seem bothered by allowing the pitcher to get ahead in the count. He wants to swing at his pitch, not the pitcher's, which is something we should all respect a bit more.

All of this is to say that Hoskins's selectiveness and ability to work pitchers, all while being comfortable with hitting while behind the count make him the perfect lead-off hitter now that Schwarber is in the fold. Hoskins has seen 4.44 pitches per plate appearance in his career. For perspective, Schwarber has a 4.24 career pitches per plate appearance in his career, and he's known to be selective as well. Hoskins is at his best when he gets to be as selective as possible. Last season, he didn't walk as much. His career on-base percentage is .360, and it dropped to .334. Hoskins has never been a high average hitter, but he usually made up for it with his ability to draw walks. Last season saw him be a little less selective and more aggressive, especially on first pitches of the at bat. While it was fun to see him turn around pitches a bit more, his strikeout rate was up a bit last year. If Hoskins can find a solid middle ground between his aggressive style, which is still very patient, and his overly selective self, he could be the kind of lead-off hitter that would make everyone happy. With the ability to give the Phillies a lead on a first pitch get me over fastball, or a runner on first after working the starter for 10 pitches, Hoskins would lead the following Philly hitters to success.

Following Hoskins, I would have Harper hit second. It's crazy and not traditional, so Girardi probably won't go for it, but a situation where Hoskins hits first, and Harper follows him up can only help both of our two Phillies. In recent seasons, we have seen Harper come up to the plate with no one on-base in front of him. He has hit so many solo homeruns in the last few seasons, its time to get someone on-base in front of Harper. After I previously mentioned, Hoskins's plate appearances would at least put the pitcher behind about 5 pitches before facing last year's MVP. If Hoskins gets on base, pitchers are going to be facing Harper with no outs and the potential for a scary inning quick. Pitchers may want to give Harper the free pass, but no one would want to start a game with runners on first and second with no outs. Additionally, Harper also knows how to work a walk, making the top 2 hitters in the Phillies lineup, on-base machines. People aren't going to want to walk Harper when they see who comes up behind him.

Schwarber should be the guy who eats when the top two guys get on base, hitting in the 3-hole. Harper needs some protection. Over the last few seasons, he has been top 5 for least amount of strikes seen per plate appearance. No offense to Hoskins and Realmuto, but they aren't providing the protection to instill fear in pitchers, forcing them to pitch to Harper. Its time Harper gets that protection and the Phillies' new left fielder is the perfect guy. He's got obvious pop. The top three in the Phillies order will all have the ability to work a walk or quickly put the Phillies on the scoreboard with one swing of the bat. Jacob deGrom is amazing, but he would be a bit scared to have to start a game against those three hitters.

In the rare case where all three get on base, Jean Segura should be the guy who follows Schwarber in the order. I know. Jean Segura isn't the prototypical four-hole hitter. However, there's a good chance on the three previously mentioned hitters is going to get on base. In that case, the last thing you'd want is for a hitter to strikeout, especially if there are multiple men on base. Jean rarely strikes out. He doesn't walk, but he doesn't strike out either. He's a line drive hitter, and he's bound to put the ball in play. He can put the ball in play, resulting in a single or a productive, run producing out. Over the last few seasons, too many times have we seen a potential run-scoring situation diffused by several strikeouts by Phillies hitters. After facing three tough outs in Hoskins, Harper, and Schwarber, a pesky hitter like Segura is the last guy a pitcher wants to see. Jean is the man when a rally is imminent, and he won't strike out.

After Jean, JT Realmuto should step up to the plate. He can provide some protection to Jean, while lengthening the Phillies lineup. Besides being a great overall hitter, JT can provide some extra value coming in the 5-hole. He'll no longer be tasked with providing protection to Harper, which he has do valiantly. Now JT can focus on his approach. Additionally, there won't be as much pressure for JT to be the guy driving in Harper. Hitting lower in the lineup can take some pressure off Realmuto. As great as he is, he really shouldn't be cleaning up in our lineup.

After JT, I figure a combination of Didi, Bohm, Vierling/Herrera, and Stott should round out the lineup. While the bottom half of the lineup isn't as exciting as the top half, no pitcher is going to want to pitch around the guys in the bottom since they know that Hoskins, Schwarber, and Harper are waiting. The visual of their lineup can be seen below:

1. DH Rhys Hoskins

2. RF Bryce Harper

3. LF Kyle Schwarber

4. 2B Jean Segura

5. C J.T. Realmuto

6. 3B Didi Gregorious

7. 1B Alec Bohm

8. CF Matt Vierling/Odubel Herrera

9. SS Bryson Stott

I will say that the DH shuffle will be up to Joe Girardi, and they will probably cycle Harper, Hoskins, Realmuto, and Schwarber through the DH spot.