FanPost

Strong up the Middle.. defense and the Phillies (team of 5 DHs none named Harper)

Did anyone's HS coach say it was important to be "strong up the middle" defensively? That phrase refers to having +defensive players at catcher, 2nd, shortstop, & centerfield. The logic behind "strong up the middle" is that if you have +defenders with range and speed up the middle they can help the players on either side of them and that more of the balls go "up the middle" than in either direction specifically.

Recently, Bryce Harper had a minor tear in his UCL and seems like he may be playing DH for awhile - maybe the rest of the season. This has brought attention on the PHillies defense, which in a word - sucks. It has been said the Phillies should welcome the DH to the National League because they already have five of them (Hoskins, Gregorius, Bohm, Schwarber, & Castellanos) - none of which are Harper.

Among Phillies everyday starters, only Realmuto and Segura are above average defenders (neither is a defensive specialist - they are probably still better relative hitters than glovemen, but both are at least average or above with the glove). Interestingly, that's half the way to "strong up the middle". I think the "strong up the middle" strategy undervalues the importance of a strong defensive 1st baseman, but I don't think that's in reach for the Phillies, and Hoskin's defense has looked better in recent weeks, so let's talk about "strong up the middle" and the Phillies.

So to be "strong up the middle" defensively - the Phillies would need to upgrade their shortstop and centerfield positions defensively.

Didi Gregorius was -10 last year in defensive runs saved and currently ranks 29th (of 30) in major league shortstops defensively. His OAA is -3 on this year so far -18 for last year. He is scouted with decidedly mediocre instincts, range, speed, and throwing. Gregorius - depending on how you measure and project it - will likely cost the Phillies more than 5.5 and less than 9 runs this season defensively. Gregorius is as average a hitter as you will find: .338/.356/.694 103 OPS+ and 0.0 WAR.

Odubel Herrera as a centerfielder is not as bad but still not grea. Fielding Bible sites Herrera as -2 DRS and 28th among Centerfielders (2022 current). He was +1 DRS last year and finished at 15th. Herrera's instincts and throwing are weaker than Gregorius' but he has better speed (appropriate for an outfielder). Let's say across the long season, Herrera will cost us 2 or 3 runs. Herrera is a better hitter: .296/.529/.826 135 OPS+ and .2 WAR (on this year so far).

For alternatives to Herrera in centerfield:

Micky Moniak - 2022 Spring 35 PA .371/.914/1.286 total MLB 52 innings in CF, 1 DRS 1 OAA

2020-2021 55 PA .241/.191/.432

Moniak - Yes he was amazing at the end of spring training and maybe Kevin Long did work miracles. Maybe he deserves some kind of chance. But Stott had a great spring training too and then hit a wall against regular season pitching and is slow to come around. Moniak's major league record is not anywhere as good as Herrera's and as a centerfielder he has not proven to be better.

Matt Vierling - 2021 season 77 PA .364/.479/.843 Total MLB 166 innings in CF, 0 DRS -1 OAA

2022: 54 PA .259/.213/.472

Vierling compares well to Moniak if you look only at the MLB at bats and their defense is not much different. Vierling probably has better range, Moniak may have the better arm. Vierling's 2021 hitting numbers exceeded Herrera's and rivaled Herrera's better 2022 numbers, but Vierling hasn't hit well in 2022.

Roman Quinn - career MLB 532 PA .300/.345/.645 total MLB 900 innings in CF, 2 DRS 6 OAA

2022 23 PA .174/.136/.310

Quinn is probably the best bet for a plus defender. Although Vierling has similar speed, Quinn's instincts and arm are better. Quinn also adds a baserunning dimension - in 2022 he has already stolen 4 bases without getting cauth in 20 PAs (Vierling is also fast - he has stolen 4 - caught once in 54 PAs). Although Quinn's MLB career hitting outshines Vierling and Moniak's limited sample, so far in 23 PA in 2022 - Quinn hasn't been hitting his weight - or maybe Taylor Swift's.

Quinn is a marginally better than average centerfielder with great range and a decent arm. He adds the dimension of stolen bases if he can get on base. But I think the only conclusion I can reach regarding alternatives to Herrera is that Quinn is not that much better defensively and none are comparable hitters. Could Quinn save us more runs that Herrera? Almost certainly. Would Quinn save us more runs than Herrera will get us offensively above Quinn? Probably not. As for Moniak or Vierling - if Moniak can hit like he did in late Spring Training or Vierling could hit as he did in 2021 - they might be able to win the CF - but they'd be doing it with the bat and not the glove. The numbers indicate at this time there is not enough defensive advantage in starting any of them over Herrera.

As for Didi & Shortstop we have two options: Stott & Camargo. Both are shown to be better defenders than Gregorius.

Bryson Stott 2022 WAR -.5 RAR -4.4 (-6.3 off, .1 Def) oAA -1 wRC+ 5 .190/.148/.338 OPS+ 0

Stott would seem to have good range and instincts

Stott has very limited major league offensive and defensive statistics. He may have fewer than a Rhys Hoskins streak at bats in the bigs and a growing number innings, but not that many at shortstop for the Phillies (he has also played at 3rd & 2nd). Interestingly, Stott already has a more innings of play in the majors in 2022 than he had in 2021 at AAA and there aren't as good a data available for the lower minor leagues of play, so it is just hard to get enough samples on Stott to know. Stott may be the shortstop or second baseman of the future for the Phillies for a decade or more (so might be Camargo to a lesser extent). Although he led the majors for awhile in spring training in OBP.. he hasn't been hitting anything lately.

Johan Camargo 2022 WAR .5 RAR 4.9 (-.3 off, 2.2 def) OAA 1 wRC+ 10 .297/.388/.685 OPS+ 98

Camargo has a better arm and more experience - he was once considered a Stott level prospect in the Braves organization. Camargo is also a switch-hitter.

Simply stated:

Gregorius is generally an average major league hitting shortstop, and a defender costing us 5-9 runs per season

if Camargo can hit as well as Gregorius he could save all of the 5-9 runs Gregorius' defense would lose this year.

Didi Gregorius career .311/.426/.736 OPS+ 97 2022 59 ABs .338/.356/.694 103

Johan Camargo career .314/.421/.735 OPS+ 93 2022 85 ABs .297/.388/.685 98

Gregorius' and Camargo's career numbers are nearly identical and Camargo has actually hit for a bit more power this year than Didi (and the reason to play Didi is to have a power hitting shortstop).

Given that Camargo hits better from the right side (and Didi left) - Camargo should at least be facing all left-handed pitching at short and possibly just playing every day at short for this season.

What to do with Didi? I don't know, but it doesn't make sense to play him just because we are paying him if we have a better alternative.

I'd be interested in comments indicating what talents might be available at the trade deadline or offseason at these two position that offer average-ish hitting and stronger defensive skills.