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Trying to understand what is wrong with Castellanos



One of the issues that has been brought up with Castellanos is it seemingly being a pitchers count every time up. It always seems to be 0-1 or 0-2 and he is behind the 8-ball enabling the pitcher to attack him however her pleases. So, I decided to dive deeper into his numbers and this is what I found

Career PA 4897

First pitch in 667PA (13.6% of plate appearances) .376/.381/.692

0-1 count in 444PA (9% of plate appearances) .391/.392/.674

0-2 count in 442PA (9% of plate appearances) .193/.201/.303

1-0 count in 271PA (5% of plate appearances) .364/.362/.663

2-0 count in 88PA (1.7% of plate appearances) .360/.363/.674

after a 0-1 count 2453PA (50% of plate appearances) .242/.276/.389

after a 1-0 count 1775PA (36% of plate appearances) .286/.375/.515

2022 PA 424

First pitch in 61PA (14% of plate appearances) .417/.410/.733

0-1 count in 42PA (9.9% of plate appearances) .400/.405/.550

0-2 count in 48PA (11% of plate appearances) .208/.208/.375

1-0 count in 25PA (5% of plate appearances) .280/.282/.360

2-0 count in 8PA (1.8% of plate appearances) .000/.000/.000

after a 0-1 count 226PA (53% of plate appearances) .254/.292/.357

after a 1-0 count 137PA (32% of plate appearances) .186/.263/.226

Just for fun after 2-0 .147/.293/.177

His rates are aligned to his career numbers. He is in 0-1 and 1-0 counts around the same amount of time as his career norms. He also is swinging at the first pitch about the same. The numbers that stand out is his slash line when he is ahead in the count. When he does get ahead in the count his hitting is horrible. I think this shows how much he is focusing on the breaking balls that he has been getting. The amount of breaking balls thrown to Nick are up this year. He typically sees 30%-35% breaking balls and hits around .240BA and .400Slug. This year it is up to over 40% braking balls with a .226BA and a .327Slug. I this this is impacting how he hunts for a fastball when he is ahead in the count. He is usually a .300 hitter with power vs the fastball but is down to .287 with very little damage (.448 Slug). I don’t think he is a lost cause and can hopefully hit his way out of it. If he can, it will be the most significant offensive pick up of the trade deadline (assuming Soto and George Herman Ohtani don’t get traded)