It’s rare for a player to put up the same numbers every year.
Some guys improve, some regress. Some have seasons where they strike out more than usual, others who generate more or less power than they have, pitchers who walk more guys than in previous seasons, suffer or benefit from batted ball luck, etc.
On the latest Hittin’ Season podcast, we cracked open the Twitter mailbag for the first time in 2023 and answered 10 questions (listen to the whole podcast below to hear all the outstanding topics, by the way)...
...chief among them this one.
What combination of player regression and improvement from ‘22 to ‘23 will allow the Phillies to contend for winning the division?— Mark Breslauer (@MarkBreslauer) January 3, 2023
Among the players who I think will improve:
- Nick Castellanos – he can’t POSSIBLY be a -0.7 fWAR player again, right? He’ll certainly hit more than 13 HRs, and slug better than .389, right?
- Bryson Stott — I’ll take that 2nd half .276/.331/.404 slash line over a full season and see that WAR jump from 1.4 to 2.5 or 3.
- Brandon Marsh — Hit .288/.319/.455 in 41 games with Kevin Long and the Phillies… if we get that over a full season… good stuff.
- Ranger Suarez — 3.65 ERA, 3.78 FIP… I think he’ll have better numbers and I’m predicting an All-Star season for him in ‘23.
Among the players who could regress:
- Kyle Schwarber — With defensive shifting going away, his overall batting average and OBP might go up but I don’t see him hitting 46 HRs again, although 30-35 dingers is reasonable.
- J.T. Realmuto — Since he became the everyday catcher for the Marlins in 2015, no one has caught more games than Realmuto’s 994. The next closest is Yasmani Grandal (901). And yet, Realmuto continues to rake. He put up a career high 6.5 fWAR last year, and at age 32, with all those games under his belt, we should expect a regression of some kind in ‘23.
- Garrett Stubbs - I don’t think we can expect .264/.350/.462 from the back-up catcher again.
- Darick Hall - Hall slugged .522 in 42 games… will he be that productive again with Harper out?
- Jose Alvarado - Will he be as consistent for a full 2023 season as he was after his call-up last year?
- Seranthony Dominguez - Will he be as solid in year two after Tommy John surgery after pitching into November?
Check out the latest Hittin’ Season podcast for an in-depth analysis of all these players, as well as answers to nine other Phillies related questions as we await for pitchers and catchers to report next month!