Can the Phillies break their home run record?

The Phillies were expected to be an offensive powerhouse this year, especially with the addition of Trea Turner. However with Turner languishing in a months-long slump, a down year from J.T. Realmuto, and most importantly the absence of the injured Rhys Hoskins, the offense, and especially their home run power, had been seen only sporadically. Even the earlier than expected return of Bryce Harper didn’t move the needle in terms of home runs, as he struggled to find his power stroke.

However since around the start of August, the Phillies’ bats have come alive.

Multiple HR streak

The most recent evidence is that with three more home runs on Monday night, the Phillies have now hit at least two in seven straight games. They have never done that before.

There had only been one stretch in their history with six straight games of multiple HRs, from August 2nd through 8th, in 1969. That was led by Johnny Callison and Dick Allen, among others.

It’s also the first time any team has done it for seven straight games this year.

The MLB record is 10 straight, by the 2019 Orioles and 2021 Astros, so there’s something for the Phillies to shoot for.

HRs over a 30-game span

Before this recent barrage, the most home runs the Phils had ever hit over a 30-game span was 51, which they had done 3 times, most recently in 2006, and also spanning acros two seasons from September 2019 to July 2020.

They have now blown that team record out of the water, having hit 68 homers in the 30 games from August 2nd through yesterday (Sep. 4):

1) Aug-Sep 2023 68

T2) Sep’19-July’20 51
T2) July-Aug 2006 51
T2) June-July 1977 51

T5) Aug-Sep 2009 50
T5) June-Aug 2008 50
T5) Sep’07-Apr’08 50
T5) July-Aug 2006 50

That’s the second biggest 30-game total in MLB this year, behind only the Braves’ 75 in June-July:

1) ATL June-July 75
2) PHI Aug-Sep 68
3) TBR Apr-May 65
4) NYY May-June 59

The all-time MLB record (since 1901, but effectively all-time) for HRs over a 30-game span is 76, set by the Yankees in 2019. The Phillies’ current total of 68 is tied for 5th most ever:

1) NYY Aug-Sep 2019: 76
2) ATL June-July 2023: 75
3) SEA Apr-May 1999: 70
4) OAK June-July 1996: 69

T5) PHI Aug-Sep 2023: 68
T5) LAD Aug-Sep 2019: 68
T5) MIN July-Aug 2019: 68

It’s worth noting that the first three games in the Phillies’ 30-game span (Aug 2-4) were all games with just one HR each, so as those roll out of the 30-game window over the next three games, they have a chance to increase their total of 68 and move up on this list.

Franchise season record

Through the end of July, the Phillies were 21st in MLB in HRs, with 113. That put them on pace for a relatively pedestrian 173 HRs for the year.

Since August 1st, they’ve hit 69, 10 more than the #2 team over that time (Braves), for a total of 182. That has moved them up from 21st in HRs, to a respectable 10th.

Their surge has also suddenly put their franchise record of 224 HRs (2009) in the cross hairs. They’re currently on pace for 215, but that’s based in large part on those first 4 months when they didn’t hit many.

A better way of looking at it is that they need 43 more to get to 225 and break the record.

With 25 games left, they need to average at least 1.7 per game. Since August 1st, they’ve been averaging 2.2 per game, so they could slow down some and still break their record.

Wherever they end up on this regular-season list, let’s hope there are many more to come in the postseason.