The Good Phight - Phillies 2013 ProjectionsSmall victories, large defeats.https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/community_logos/33221/favicon.ico2013-02-23T00:11:23-05:00http://www.thegoodphight.com/rss/stream/36102152013-02-23T00:11:23-05:002013-02-23T00:11:23-05:002013 Projections: NL East Standings
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ZVMxHhBh0z9aiFQFZ41WFDRh6QE=/0x10:600x410/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/8578075/gyi0063586119.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Al Messerschmidt</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The 2013 projections from the various systems all result in the same order of finish among the teams of the NL East.</p> <p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">In recent weeks, we've been reviewing 2013 projections from the various systems, and turning them into runs scored and runs allowed by the Phillies in order to estimate a win total.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">Recap:<br></span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">- This translated the </span><a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2012/12/29/3813486/2013-phillies-projections-part-i-bill-james" style="color: #858585; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px; background-color: #ffffff;">Bill James</a><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"> projections to 89 wins<br><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">- This showed the </span><a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/3/3830190/phillies-2013-projections-part-ii-zips/in/3610215" style="color: #858585; font-weight: bold; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px; background-color: #ffffff;">ZiPS</a><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"> projections translate to 81 wins<br></span></span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">- </span><a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/8/3850240/what-do-we-make-of-the-phillies-95-win-pace-in-the-second-half-of-2012" style="color: #858585; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px; background-color: #ffffff;">Here</a><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"> we saw why the ZiPS projections indicate that the 95-win pace in the second half of 2012 is unlikely to be sustained in 2013 (partly because the 95 pace included about 6 wins attributable to luck, but mostly because the pitching will regress)<br></span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">- <a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/21/3892252/2013-phillies-what-are-you-smoking" style="color: #858585; font-weight: bold;"><b style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;">Here</b></a></span><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">, we saw what kind of stats individual Phillies would have to deliver in 2013 in order for the team to win 95 games -- in short, nothing miraculous for anyone in particular, but everyone would have to perform at or near their best level of the past 2-3 years (and if they all did that at once, that <i style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;">would</i> be miraculous).<br>- Finally, <a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/2/20/3991776/phillies-2013-projections-part-iii-steamer-and-oliver"><b>here</b></a>, we reviewed the projections from Steamer (81 wins), and Oliver (88 wins).</span></p>
<p><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">Most of these projections are now conveniently available for other teams, and so we can do the same kind of analysis for the rest of the NL East and see how the Phillies compare. The only exception is the set from Bill James, which I don't have access to without copying them one by one for each of 100 or so players in question. However there is also a new set of projections from <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=rotochamp&team=0&players=0">RotoChamp</a>, which I've included below.</span></p>
<p><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">The methodology for the other NL East teams is similar as in the Phillies analyses:<br>1) assumed that each team would get the same number of PAs by position as they did in 2012, and that the innings pitched by starters, in total, and by relievers, in total, would be the same as in 2012<br>2) for most positions, assumed that the first player in the team's depth chart would get 90% of the PAs, and the backup would get 10%; for catchers, typically assumed 70% for the starter and 30% for the backup<br>3) starting pitchers 1-5 were allocated roughly 210-200-200-180-160 innings (more-or-less) to match the innings pitched by the team's total in 2012; the first 5-6 relievers in the depth <span style="white-space: pre;"> </span>chart were allocated 70 or so innings each<br>4) each player's projected 2013 wOBA or ERA is used to generate runs created or runs allowed (with an earned runs to total runs adjustment)<br>5) a team's runs scored and runs allowed are added up, and then converted to games won using the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation">pythagorean formula</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"><span style="font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">So, without further ado, the results:</span></span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1456283/nlepyth.png"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1456283/nlepyth_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Nlepyth_medium"></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">This is very crude, but it's interesting that despite widely varying projections for runs scored and runs allowed from one system to the next, in the end all four systems translate to the same order of finish in 2013.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">The RotoChamp projections, which are the only one of these sets we haven't reviewed in detail yet, are interesting (and encouraging) from a Phillies perspective. They include o</span><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">ne more very optimistic projection for Darin Ruf (.828 OPS), and also some rather rosy numbers for Brown (.803), Ruiz (.846), Utley (.836), and Rollins (.776).</span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1456325/rotobat.png"><img src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1456325/rotobat_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Rotobat_medium"></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">Below are runs created projections from all the systems. Unusually high or low projections are highlighted green or dark red: </span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1456391/projroto.png" style="font-size: 12px; line-height: 16px;"><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1456391/projroto_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Projroto_medium"></a></p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/2/23/4019964/2013-projections-nl-east-standingsschmenkman2013-02-20T12:53:19-05:002013-02-20T12:53:19-05:002013 Projections Part III: Steamer and Oliver
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/RDs809mzD2U7anjEm7ppxYW68Mo=/0x151:4000x2818/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/8398077/150564894.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Drew Hallowell</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Projections from the Steamer and Oliver models translate to 81 and 88 wins, respectively.</p> <p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">This is the latest in a series reviewing 2013 predictions from the various projection models. The models typically predict both rate and counting stats, but the counting stats are based on individual playing time assumptions that often don't make sense in aggregate. </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">In analyses like this one we make assumptions about how the team's plate appearances and innings pitched will be allocated, and then apply the projected rate stats to convert them to predictions of counting stats and the total runs they would generate. By estimating runs scored and runs allowed, we can then use the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pythagorean_expectation">pythagorean formula</a> to estimate the number of games the Phillies will win.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">So far: </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">- </span><a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2012/12/29/3813486/2013-phillies-projections-part-i-bill-james" style="color: #858585; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px; background-color: #ffffff;">Here</a><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"> we worked out that the projections in the Bill James model would mean 89 wins</span><br style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">- </span><a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/3/3830190/phillies-2013-projections-part-ii-zips/in/3610215" style="color: #858585; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px; background-color: #ffffff;">Here</a><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"> we said that the ZiPS model projections would translate to 81 wins</span><br style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">- </span><a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/8/3850240/what-do-we-make-of-the-phillies-95-win-pace-in-the-second-half-of-2012" style="color: #858585; font-weight: bold; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px; background-color: #ffffff;">Here</a><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"> we saw why the ZiPS projections indicate that the 95-win pace in the second half of 2012 is unlikely to be sustained in 2013 (partly because the 95 pace included about 6 wins attributable to luck, but mostly because the pitching will regress)<br>- Finally, <a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/21/3892252/2013-phillies-what-are-you-smoking"><b>here</b></a></span><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">, we saw what kind of stats individual Phillies would have to deliver in 2013 in order for the team to win 95 games -- in short, nothing miraculous for anyone in particular, but everyone would have to perform at or near their best level of the past 2-3 years (and if they all did that at once, that <i>would</i> be miraculous). </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">FanGraphs recently published the projections from two more systems, called <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=steamer&team=26&players=">Steamer</a> and <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=oliver&team=26&players=0">Oliver</a>.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">To get right to the bottom line results, skip to the Conclusions section at the end.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"><b>Playing time assumptions</b></span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">As with previous versions, below are the playing time assumptions used to convert the projections to runs.</span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1451279/pasplit.png"><img alt="Pasplit_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1451279/pasplit_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>Note: for consistency with the analysis of other projections, and because I tend to think his 2013 impact will be minimal, I am choosing to ignore Delmon Young for this exercise.</p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"><b>STEAMER</b></span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">Noteworthy about the Steamer forecast:</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">- it has very low expectations of Ben Revere and Freddy Galvis:</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">Ben Revere: .270/.314/.336 (.650 OPS, .288 wOBA)<br>Freddy Galvis: .235/.273/.338 (.612 OPS, .267 wOBA)</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">- it also has the lowest projection for Domonic Brown of all the systems reviewed to date:</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">James: .274/.347/.445 (.792 OPS, .342 wOBA)<br>Oliver: .267/.337/.449 (.786 OPS, .339 wOBA)<br>ZiPS: .265/.332/.461 (.793 OPS, .337 wOBA)<br>Steamer: .256/.328/.423 (.750 OPS, .325 wOBA)</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">Projected stats based on Steamer's projections and the above playing time assumptions:</span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1452103/stebats.png"><img width="500" alt="Stebats_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1452103/stebats_medium.png"></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">Out of all the projection systems, Steamer also has the highest projected ERAs for the Phillies starting pitchers:</span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447037/stepit.png"><img alt="Stepit_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447037/stepit_medium.png"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;"><b>OLIVER</b></span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">The most distinctive thing about the OLIVER projections is a very optimistic outlook for Darin Ruf:</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">.264/.338/.493 (.830 OPS, .356 wOBA), with 34 HR and 109 RBI in a full season.</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">On the other hand it has a rather dim view of Michael Young's prospects:</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">.275/.321/.385 (.705 OPS, .307 wOBA) </span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">Projected stats based on Oliver's projections and the above playing time assumptions:</span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;"> <a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1452109/olibat.png"><img src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1452109/olibat_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Olibat_medium" width="500"></a></span></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.555556297302246px; line-height: 25.59027862548828px;">Overall, Oliver is on the optimistic side, particularly regarding the starting rotation.</span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447073/olipit.png"><img alt="Olipit_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447073/olipit_medium.png"></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">Below are the wOBA estimates from each of the projection systems (as well as the 95-win scenario), and how they compare to 2012. It's a lot of numbers, so focus on the color coding -- the greener the better.</span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447091/projbat.png"><img alt="Projbat_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447091/projbat_medium.png"></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">And pitchers' ERAs...</span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447103/progpit.png"><img alt="Progpit_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447103/progpit_medium.png"></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;"><b>Conclusions</b></span></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">Below are the four systems (and the 95 win scenario), by position. For hitters, this is runs created, and for pitchers it's runs allowed. Any runs created projections that are at least five runs above or below the average of the four systems are highlighted as green on the high side (e.g. James' 83 RC at third base), or red on the low side (ZiPS' 82 RC at first).</span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1452019/projsumm.png"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1452019/projsumm_medium.png" class="photo" alt="Projsumm_medium" width="500"></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;">Using the pythagorean formula, we now have two sets of projections which translate to 81 wins (ZiPS and Steamer), and two translating to 88-89 wins (James and Oliver).</span></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447115/projpyth.png"><img alt="Projpyth_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1447115/projpyth_medium.png" width="500"></a></p>
<p><span style="color: #292929; font-family: 'Mercury SSm A', 'Mercury SSm B', Georgia, Georgia, serif; font-size: 15.454545021057129px; line-height: 25.582386016845703px;"><b>The average of the four systems (James, ZiPS, Steamer, Oliver) is 685 runs scored and 650 runs allowed, which translates to a .524 winning percentage and (drum roll) 85 wins.</b></span></p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/2/20/3991776/phillies-2013-projections-part-iii-steamer-and-oliverschmenkman2013-01-08T16:36:58-05:002013-01-08T16:36:58-05:00Phillies: Post All-Star break success and 2013
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/fQ7Q1AN4l6QuyyRjSNgzmjb_NQI=/1x0:999x665/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/6264339/20120229_jel_ah6_375.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Derick E. Hingle-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>Why did the Phillies improve so much in the second half of 2012, and can we expect that improvement to continue in 2013?</p> <p>When the 2012 season ended, there was reason to be optimistic about the 2013 Phillies.</p>
<p>The first half had been terrible, and was capped by a month-plus-long stretch in which they were both bad AND unlucky:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1379317/1h12pace.png"><img alt="1h12pace_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1379317/1h12pace_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>9-25 in the last 34 games leading up to the all-star break, with the only consolation being that maybe they were only as bad as 13-21 (a 63 win pace over 162 games) based on their run differential.</p>
<p>However the second half started off much better, and improved further after the trade deadline. The Phillies were to head into the off-season having completed a second half in which they were 44-31, for a .587 winning percentage, or a 95-win pace.</p>
<p>When you looked a little deeper, it was evident that some of the luck that had eluded them in the first half came back in the second -- based on their post-ASB run differential, the pythagorean formula predicted an 89-win pace.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1379323/2h12pace.png"><img alt="2h12pace_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1379323/2h12pace_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>What was encouraging with that 89-win pace as a harbinger for 2013 was that they did it in a way that appeared to be sustainable:</p>
<p><b>OFFENSE</b></p>
<p>- Catchers hitting over their head? Nah. Carlos Ruiz had come back to earth by then, and all Phillies catchers hit a combined .253/.328/.438 (.765 OPS) after the all-star break. Good, but not unachievable, even without pharmaceutical aids.</p>
<p>- Frandsen on a BABIP-fueled tear? Sure, but he only played 55 games, and third basemen overall hit a relatively pedestrian .294/.337/.391 (.727) in the second half.</p>
<p>- John Mayberry in his second annual celebration of hittin' weather? Sort of. He himself hit only .256/.327/.410 (.737) in the second half, but a pre-trade surge by Shane Victorino did help CFs overall to hit a combined .298/.361/.456 (.817).</p>
<p>Victorino was gone, but there were other reasons for optimism:</p>
<p>- The second half included a .711 OPS from Phillies' first basemen, where Ryan Howard had posted an .835 OPS just the year before. So if Howard could regain even some of his pre-achilles tear performance, there should be improvement over the 2nd half of 2012.</p>
<p>- Right Fielders hit a horrendous .193/.268/.318 (.585 OPS) in the second half. Domonic Brown himself wasn't nearly that bad however (.235/.316/.396 (.712)), so you would think that by simply handing him the position, there should be further improvement on 2nd half results.</p>
<p>When you compare the 2nd half performance (in wRC per 162 games) to, say, the ZiPS projections, the offense in aggregate looks similar:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1378789/2h1213off.png"><img alt="2h1213off_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1378789/2h1213off_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>So yes, Ben Revere is not expected to come close to what Victorino/Mayberry did in the second half, but Right Field performance should be much better, and overall, 2013 is very close to post-ASB 2012 in terms of wOBA and therefore expected runs created.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>PITCHING</b></p>
<p>As the first two tables above show, the reason for the improvement in the second half wasn't the hitting, as was widely expected with the return of Chase Utley and Ryan Howard -- runs scored essentially stayed the same after the break (4.23 to 4.21).</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 8.999999046325684px;">Instead, it was </span>the pitching that improved dramatically, and at least according to ZiPS, it's the pitching performance that is really unsustainable as we look ahead to the 2013 season:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1378801/2h1213sp.png"><img alt="2h1213sp_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1378801/2h1213sp_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>ZiPS expects Roy Halladay to improve, although a 3.42 ERA would rival some of his worst seasons, after adjusting for run environment.</p>
<p>However ZiPS expects Cole Hamels, Cliff Lee, and Kyle Kendrick to all be worse in 2013, and there's really not much to argue with there. Lee had an insane 13.6 K/BB ratio after the all-star break last year. Hamels might be able to get close to his 2.87 ERA, but is at least as likely to be in the low 3's. Kendrick's 2nd half was very encouraging, but KK will need to show he can stay aggressive and keep his K rate up before the 4.31 projection will start to look pessimistic.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1387161/2h1213rp.png"><img alt="2h1213rp_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1387161/2h1213rp_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>Jonathan Papelbon's 1.67 ERA is, not surprisingly, expected to regress in 2013. All other relievers had a 3.35 ERA in the second half, and that is expected to rise to 4.18, based on these 2013 innings assumptions. Jeremy Horst in particular, but also Phillippe Aumont, are expected to see their ERAs rise considerably.</p>
<p>In summary, the Phillies should be able to roughly match their hitting of 2012, including in the second half, when they played like a playoff contender. But the reason they improved in the second half was almost entirely due to their pitching, and that performance may not be repeatable in 2013.</p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/8/3850240/what-do-we-make-of-the-phillies-95-win-pace-in-the-second-half-of-2012schmenkman2013-01-03T12:29:09-05:002013-01-03T12:29:09-05:00Phillies 2013 Projections, Part II: ZiPS
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nH50aJB5H7UW_pyiWh-e9TEfTqs=/0x0:600x400/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/6000025/19-oct-10_104396912mw099_san_francisc.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Jeff Zelevansky</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The ZiPS projections from Dan Szymborski translate to somewhat better pitching, but also a worse offense for the Phillies than in 2012.</p> <p>This is the second in a series analyzing the 2013 projections for the Phillies. The Bill James projections were <a href="http://www.thegoodphight.com/2012/12/29/3813486/2013-phillies-projections-part-i-bill-james">reviewed here</a>. The intent is to take each system's wOBA projections, make assumptions about playing time, and convert the projected wOBA to runs created (using the Tango/Fangraphs <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wrc-and-wraa/" style="background-color: #ffffff;">wRC formula</a>), given those assumed PA totals. Similarly, ERA projections, along with assumptions about innings pitched and unearned runs, are converted to total runs allowed.</p>
<p><span style="line-height: 8.999999046325684px;">This edition looks at</span> the Phillies stats from Dan Szymborki's ZiPS projections, as <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/2013-zips-projections-philadelphia-phillies/">reported at FanGraphs</a>.</p>
<p><b>HITTING</b></p>
<p>The ZiPS projections for Phillies regulars in 2012 were the most pessimistic of those below, although of course the Phillies still fell short of them, on average:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363391/12proj.png"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363391/12proj_medium.png" class="photo" alt="12proj_medium"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>2013 Playing time assumptions</b></p>
<p>While the ZiPS projections include forecasts for playing time, all the position players add up to about 13,000 plate appearances, or somewhat more than twice what a typical team has in a season. For purposes of converting the projections to runs, I've used these assumptions:</p>
<p>1) Each position will get the same number of PAs as in 2012<br>2) PAs to be distributed among 2013 players as below:<br>- 570+ PAs from both Utley and Howard<br>- Rollins and Young stay healthy and play almost the entire year<br>- unlike the Bill James projections, ZiPS includes one for Ruf and he's assumed to play every day in Left<br>- Revere plays every game in Center<br>- Brown gets the bulk of the playing time in Right</p>
<p>Plate appearances:<br><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370325/1213pazips.png"><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370325/1213pazips_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213pazips_medium"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>Offense: Runs Created by Position</b></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370349/1213projzips.png"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370349/1213projzips_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213projzips_medium"></a></p>
<p>Biggest changes:</p>
<p>- Ruiz comes back to 2009/2011 levels<br>- Utley plays the majority of the time and duplicates 2012's wOBA<br>- Howard plays the majority of the time but has by far his worst year, aside from 2012<br>- Young improves modestly on the 2012 hodge podge of third basemen<br>- Revere is the worst hitter in the lineup and falls short of Victorino/Mayberry's 2012<br>- Brown improves to a .793 OPS<br><b>- Total runs created are 13 less than what the 2012 offense scored</b></p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>By Position</b></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1372207/1213zipsc1b2b.png"><img alt="1213zipsc1b2b_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1372207/1213zipsc1b2b_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>- Chooch: coming off a 25-game suspension, his wOBA returns to roughly the same level as 2009 (.338) and 2011 (.333)<br>- Howard's wOBA improves, but is still the worse of any year excluding 2012 (2011's .355 is next lowest)<span style="line-height: 16px;"><br></span><span style="line-height: 8.999999046325684px;">-</span> Utley duplicates 2012, but with more playing time</p>
<p> </p>
<div><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1372229/1213zipsss3b.png"><img alt="1213zipsss3b_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1372229/1213zipsss3b_medium.png"></a></div>
<div><br></div>
<div>- Assumes Rollins stays healthy for most of the year</div>
<p>- Young improves on 2012's horrid .297 wOBA, but not by much</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1372253/1213zipsof.png"><img alt="1213zipsof_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1372253/1213zipsof_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>- Ruf is assumed to play full time. <br>- Assumes Revere plays every game, and falls well short of the Victorino/Mayberry 2012 production.<br>- Brown gets 80% of the PAs and duplicates Pence's 2012 rate stats</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>2013 Totals by Player</b></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370677/13tot.png"><img src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370677/13tot_medium.png" class="photo" alt="13tot_medium"></a></p>
<p>I'll take the over on Howard's HR, RBI, and OPS.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>PITCHING</b></p>
<p>2012 Projections -- ZiPS was in the middle of the pack of last year's projections for the Phillies starting staff:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368801/12projp.png" style="background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration: underline;"><img alt="12projp_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368801/12projp_medium.png"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>2013 Projections: Starting Pitchers</b></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368801/12projp.png" style="background-color: #ffffff; text-decoration: underline;"></a></p>
<p>ZiPS projects that the starters will improve somewhat, with Halladay getting better (although not vintage Doc), while Hamels and Kendrick get worse.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370421/1213zipssps.png"><img src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370421/1213zipssps_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213zipssps_medium"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p><span style="font-weight: bold;">2013 Projections: Bullpen</span></p>
<p>Bullpen ERA stays essentially the same as in 2012. Bastardo is better, but Aumont and Horst are much worse:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370427/1213zipsrps.png"><img src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370427/1213zipsrps_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213zipsrps_medium"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p>Total runs allowed by the staff improves slightly, from 680 to 671.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>
<p>The ZiPS projections for both the Phillies offense and the pitching are much less optimistic than those by the Bill James model, working out to 24 fewer runs scored, and 48 more runs allowed:</p>
<p><b>Runs Created by Position<br></b><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370433/1213jameszips.png"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370433/1213jameszips_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213jameszips_medium"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>Pythagorean Won-Lost Projection</b></p>
<p>With projections for both runs scored and runs allowed, we can estimate a winning percentage for each set of projections. While the James projections translate to a Wild Card contender, the ZiPS numbers show the Phillies to be a .500 team again:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370439/1213pyth.png"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1370439/1213pyth_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213pyth_medium"></a></p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2013/1/3/3830190/phillies-2013-projections-part-ii-zipsschmenkman2012-12-29T10:41:04-05:002012-12-29T10:41:04-05:00Phillies 2013 Projections, Part I: Bill James
<figure>
<img alt="" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8rHXlj3KjFnzElR3AZXljp8FCRw=/0x390:2668x2169/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/5721157/20120929_hcs_sy4_010.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Howard Smith-US PRESSWIRE</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>The projections from the Bill James model, which are probably on the optimistic side, translate to slight improvement over the 2012 offense.</p> <p>This is the first in a series analyzing the 2013 projections for the Phillies. It reviews the Phillies hitters' stats from the Bill James model, the first set of projections to be published this year.</p>
<p>The James projections have been rather optimistic in recent years, and that was the case again in 2012, at least for the Phillies regulars:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363391/12proj.png"><img src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363391/12proj_medium.png" class="photo" alt="12proj_medium"></a></p>
<p>So the 2013 wOBA projections below are likely to be more optimistic than others that will follow over the next several weeks.</p>
<p>I made playing time assumptions and then converted the projected wOBA to runs created (using the Tango/Fangraphs <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/wrc-and-wraa/">wRC formula</a>), given those assumed PA totals.</p>
<p><b>2013 Playing time assumptions</b></p>
<p>1) Each position will get the same number of PAs as in 2012<br>2) PAs to be distributed among 2013 players as below:<br>- 570+ PAs from both Utley and Howard<br>- Rollins and Young stay healthy and play almost the entire year<br>- without a Ruf projection, Mayberry is used as a proxy in Left<br>- Revere plays every game in Center<br>- Brown gets the bulk of the playing time in Right</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363403/1213pa.png"><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363403/1213pa_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213pa_medium"></a></p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>Summary of Results: Runs Created by Position</b></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363427/1213james.png"><img src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363427/1213james_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213james_medium"></a></p>
<p>Biggest changes:</p>
<p>- Ruiz comes back to 2009/2011 levels<br>- Utley and Howard play the majority of the time and return to roughly 2011 levels<br>- Young improves on the 2012 hodge podge of third basemen<br>- Revere is the worst hitter in the lineup and falls short of Victorino/Mayberry's 2012<br>- Brown improves to a .792 OPS</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>By Position</b></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363535/1213c.png"><img src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363535/1213c_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213c_medium"></a><br>- Chooch: coming off a 25-game suspension, his wOBA returns to roughly the same level as 2009 (.338) and 2011 (.333)<br>- Kratz essentially duplicates his 2012</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363565/12131b.png"><img src="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363565/12131b_medium.png" class="photo" alt="12131b_medium"></a><br>- Howard's wOBA returns to nearly 2011's .355<br>- Mayberry's career wOBA is .329, although .325 would be a rebound from 2012's .303 (overall)</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363589/12132b.png"><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363589/12132b_medium.png" class="photo" alt="12132b_medium"></a><br>- .350 would be Utley's highest wOBA since 2010</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363595/1213ss.png"><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363595/1213ss_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213ss_medium"></a><br>- Hopefully Rollins can stay healthy again</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363607/12133b.png"><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363607/12133b_medium.png" class="photo" alt="12133b_medium"></a><br>- Young's .330 is comparable to his 2010 season, when he hit .284/.330/.444 (101 wRC+)</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363673/1213lf.png"><img src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363673/1213lf_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213lf_medium"></a><br>- The James model didn't include a projection for Darin Ruf, so this is uses Mayberry as a proxy.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363691/1213cf.png"><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363691/1213cf_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213cf_medium"></a><br>- Assumes Revere plays every game, and falls well short of the Victorino/Mayberry 2012 production.</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363709/1213rf.png"><img src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1363709/1213rf_medium.png" class="photo" alt="1213rf_medium"></a><br>- Brown gets 80% of the PAs (say Mayberry plays against tough lefties)</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>2013 Totals by Player</b></p>
<p><a href="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1366543/13tot.png"><img alt="13tot_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn1.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1366543/13tot_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>The Ruf/JMJ line includes Mayberry's time at first, as well as any outfielders not named Revere or Brown.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>Base Running</b></p>
<p>Since FanGraphs removed base stealing from its wOBA, base running is not reflected in any of the above. I suppose it's among the many things included in the "1" that is the difference between the sum of the wRC's, and the actual runs scored in 2012, including timing/luck.</p>
<p>I would expect that with Revere replacing 2/3 of a Victorino season, and with Rollins and Utley a year older, it will be essentially a wash.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>
<p>The Bill James projections are on the optimistic side and when combined with assumptions about playing time, work out to about 11 more runs than what the 2012 team scored.</p>
<p>However one factor that's pessimistic in these assumptions is using John Mayberry's overall wOBA. If he doesn't play full time he will likely face primarily lefties, which would improve his numbers somewhat.</p>
<p> </p>
<p>------</p>
<h4><b>ADDENDUM: PITCHING</b></h4>
<p><b>2012 Projections</b></p>
<p>The 2012 Bill James projections for the starting pitchers were not unusually optimistic overall:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368801/12projp.png"><img alt="12projp_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368801/12projp_medium.png"></a></p>
<p><b>2013 Projections: Starting Pitchers</b></p>
<p>Starters are projected to improve, mostly on the strength of Roy Halladay returning to form with a 3.21 ERA:<a href="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368847/1213start.png"><img alt="1213start_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368847/1213start_medium.png"></a></p>
<p><b>2013 Projections: Bullpen</b></p>
<p>The bullpen gets a little trickier in that 2013 is limited by who does or doesn't have a projection. I've allocated innings as reasonably as I could given that restriction:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368865/1213bull.png"><img alt="1213bull_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn3.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368865/1213bull_medium.png"></a></p>
<p>Given these playing time assumptions, the bullpen ERA is projected to drop from 3.94 in 2012 to 3.30 in 2013.</p>
<p>Total runs allowed, assuming the same ratio of ER to Runs as in 2012, is 623, compared to 680 last year.</p>
<p> </p>
<p><b>Pythagorean Won-Lost Projection</b></p>
<p>With projections for both runs scored (695) and runs allowed (623), we can now project a winning percentage:</p>
<p><a href="http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368885/1213pyth.png"><img alt="1213pyth_medium" class="photo" src="http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1368885/1213pyth_medium.png"></a></p>
https://www.thegoodphight.com/2012/12/29/3813486/2013-phillies-projections-part-i-bill-jamesschmenkman